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ESPN's FPI skeptical of LSU entering 2025 season

On3 imageby:Matthew Brune•06/08/25•

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NCAA Football: Texas Bowl-Baylor at Louisiana State
Dec 31, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; LSU Tigers wide receiver Chris Hilton Jr. (3) runs the ball during the first half against the Baylor Bears at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

LSU enters the 2025 season with heightened expectations as the NIL push paired with the return of key starters on both sides of the ball. The hope is a playoff appearance is imminent, with a potential title push also in play. After three straight years of missing the playoffs and being ranked outside the top 10 under Brian Kelly, there’s a real urgency to win now.

Most outlets believe LSU is ready to compete on a national level , almost unanimously putting the Tigers in the top 10, but ESPN’s computer simulation is not quite sold on Brian Kelly’s team. Here’s a look at where LSU ranks in ESPN’s initial FPI for the 2025 season and the full rankings.

12th in FPI Top 25

  1. Texas
  2. Georgia
  3. Alabama
  4. Ohio State
  5. Penn State
  6. Oregon
  7. Notre Dame
  8. Texas A&M
  9. Miami
  10. Tennessee
  11. Clemson
  12. LSU
  13. Ole Miss
  14. Auburn
  15. South Carolina
  16. Oklahoma
  17. Michigan
  18. Florida
  19. USC
  20. SMU
  21. Kansas State
  22. Arkansas
  23. Missouri
  24. Arizona State
  25. Nebraska

One thing that stood out is not just LSU being lower than expected here, but also Clemson, LSU’s first game of the season. Many expect Clemson to be a top five team in the country, but not according to the FPI. Regardless, it’s a game with massive playoff implications and the winner will shoot up the rankings.

Then you have the SEC aspect of it, as 13 of the 16 teams in the conference are in the FPI top 25. LSU is the 6th highest ranked SEC team and as we know, the talent in the conference continues to stack up.

LSU’s chance at a national championship

1. Texas, 22.2%

2. Georgia, 17.5%

3. Ohio State, 11.6%

4. Alabama, 10.4%

5. Penn State, 7.6%

6. Oregon, 4.8%

7. Clemson, 3.8%

8. Miami, 3.2%

9. Notre Dame, 2.4%

10. Tennessee, 2.3%

11. Texas A&M, 2.1%

12. LSU, 1.8%

13. Ole Miss, 1.5%

14. Auburn, 1.1%

15. Michigan, 1%

16. South Carolina, 0.8%

17. Oklahoma, 0.7%

18. SMU, 0.6%

19. Florida, 0.6%

20. Kansas State, 0.5%

Just a 1.8 percent chance feels light for a team with one of the best quarterbacks in the country and a slew of transfer additions that should help the top end of the roster. The first challenge is making the playoffs with a rigorous schedule, but then it’s about the details like the offensive line and defensive line surpassing expectations. There are questions, but the Tigers on paper are one of the best teams in the SEC. According to the computer, though, it’s not as straightforward.

What is FPI?

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

“Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.

In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses.”

Full explanation here.

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