LSU MBB's outlook ahead of key game vs. Wake Forest

LSU head coach Matt McMahon has his team at 7-1 now a month into the season, but it’s been far from a smooth road to get to this point. After losing to Kansas State, the Tigers have struggled in home wins against Wofford and UT Arlington.

Right now, LSU ranks 343 in strength of schedule, but also entered the year 349th in returning minutes. McMahon was prepared for a rebuilding year one, but now the Tigers prepare to face Wake Forest on Saturday at 1 p.m. in Atlanta.

Here is what McMahon highlighted in his press conference and my thoughts on the various topics.

Justice Williams’ return

“He’s been cleared to return to full contact practice the last two days. He’s looked pretty good considering how much time he missed off that sprained ankle. Our anticipation is that he’ll be cleared, dressed and ready to go on Saturday.”

After missing the last five games, Williams returns and will have three weeks to get acclimated before conference play. Williams might seem redundant with Cam Hayes’ emergence, but I believe Williams is a better backup point guard option, while Hayes is more of an off-ball scorer. Also, I’ve long been high on Williams’ potential, so we’ll see if he can bounce back. This team needs more scoring options,

Wake Forest scouting report

“Coach Forbes has won a lot of games over the years. They’ve shot it well from three and they’ve taken a high volume of threes. The ability to defend the three point arc will be critical. Tyree Appleby is one of the more electric guards in college basketball this season. Then, they have great size at the 3-5 positions.”

Steve Forbes is a great coach. Outside of his first year at Wake Forest, he’s 162-55 as a head coach. His offenses are constantly top 100 in the country and this year, it’s more of the same, as the Demon Deacons average over 78 points per game. After losing the Jake LaRavia (19th pick in 2022 NBA Draft) and Alondes Williams (2022 ACC POTY), Wake Forest added Tyree Appleby from Florida who has been one of the better guards in the ACC so far this year.

Wake Forest is ranked well below Kansas State, but the Deacons are far more dynamic on offense and capable of getting hot, presenting a new challenge for the Tigers’ defense.

Turnover problems

“We’re trying to develop that chemistry within the team and that takes time. When you want to boil it down to a few things, No. 1, we have to lower our turnover rate. Offensively we’re wasting too many possessions due to turnovers.”

College basketball is about getting the ball in the paint. Talk to any coach and that’s the first principle of offense. Unfortunately, LSU doesn’t have guys who can really suck in a defense and as a result, the Tigers have guys trying to force the issue. Justice Hill, Adam Miller, and KJ Williams all have a low turnover rate, but Trae Hannibal, Cam Hayes, Jalen Reed, Derek Fountain, and Mwani Wilkinson all have a turnover percentage over 23%. For context, Wake Forest has only two players in that category.

Rebounding troubles

“Our defensive rebounding is very average. The frontcourt is more physical in boxouts, but where we have the biggest area for growth – our guards have to do a better job rebounding. Period. We’re not getting any rebounding at the guard position. We also need to chase down long rebounds.”

Coming into the year, I predicted that rebounding and interior defense would be a problem for this team in the SEC. LSU ranks 197th in defensive rebounding percentage and 163rd in block percentage despite playing an abysmal schedule to this point. He makes a great point with the guards rebounding, but I just don’t believe the Tigers have the physical ability to rebound at a much higher level.

On defensive inconsistencies

“Our first shot defense has been good, but when you give up second shot opportunities, it puts a lot of pressure on your defense. Then, when you turn the ball over a lot, your defense is playing at a disadvantage because you’re playing in transition.”

Yes, the halfcourt offense is good, but I hesitate to really buy into this team being a top 50 defense until I see what they look like against Wake Forest. He’s right about the turnovers and defensive rebounding, though.

My thoughts moving forward

Now that we have collectively lowered our expectations for this team, Saturday becomes a big game for any hopes of this team having any excitement entering conference play. Still, no matter how ugly it gets this year, I am going to hold off from selling too much McMahon stock.

Year ones are always hard for new coaches in college basketball. Forbes at Wake Forest is a great example of that, going from 3-15 in conference in 2021 to 13-7 in the ACC last year. Eric Musselman at Arkansas went 7-11 in conference in year one, then rattled off back-to-back 13-win conference seasons.

Just something to keep in mind as this season continues. It’s probably not a tournament-level team this year, but try to stay patient. Obviously, recruiting will ultimately decide how McMahon does here, but for now, I’m going to give him time.