Season Preview: Matt McMahon leads new era of LSU MBB

On3 imageby:Matthew Brune11/09/22

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LSU basketball is back and Matt McMahon’s men’s team opens its season on Wednesday night at home against Missouri-Kansas City. Entering a new era of LSU basketball, the standards have been raised with recent success. The Tigers have made four straight NCAA Tournaments and have had a run of success also putting players in the NBA.

McMahon and this staff did an amazing job going from zero scholarship players to a roster filled with quality pieces and proven talent.

It’s going to be a long trek to March, but the road to the tournament starts this week. Here, we’re taking one final look at the men’s roster and setting my expectations in the 2022-23 season.

Preseason rankings: No. 8 in SEC, Not in Top 25

Talent on roster

From Tremont Waters, to Naz Reid, to Cam Thomas and then Tari Eason, LSU has been on a run of NBA talent leading the way in recent years. This year, we look at a veteran-led roster, led by reigning Ohio Valley Conference POTY in KJ Williams and returning guard Adam Miller who missed last year with a preseason knee injury. Miller and Williams will be tasked with leading the way as scorers and running the offense through them this year.

Point guard Justice Hill was a full time starter at Murray State last year and showed huge strides forward, so we’ll see how his game translates to the SEC. Then you have two highly rated freshmen in Tyrell Ward and Jalen Reed who are projected to get plenty of minutes and potentially start. Along with Miller, the other two returners from last year’s team are Mwani Wilkinson and Justice Williams who are poised to take a step up in production this season.

The rest of the roster is a mixture of transfers and freshmen who are looking to prove themselves, but we’ll have to see who emerges. Cam Hayes, Trae Hannibal, Shawn Phillips, Derek Fountain, and Kendal Coleman will all be looking for playing time, but McMahon has been firm on keeping rotations tight in big games.

Coaching

I expect McMahon to try multiple starting lineups during non-conference play and to test different combinations throughout games. He’s been adamant that this has been a learning process and I believe that will come with weekly changes in the first month.

Murray State under McMahon ranked 241st and 275th in tempo over the past two seasons, so we’ll see if they can pick up the pace against a lackluster non-conference schedule. Ultimately, piecing together rotations and lineups will be a great challenge, but in today’s era of college basketball having a new roster is becoming less and less of an excuse. Projected as a bubble team entering the season, McMahon has to get this team ready to win every game in this non-conference schedule.

Schedule

Let’s talk about it. I’ve talked to several coaches over the offseason about the challenges of scheduling nowadays, but LSU is not in the position of mid-major schools. It appears McMahon and his staff want to ease their way into the season before getting hit with the brutal SEC schedule

Eight of the ten set games are against teams who finished outside of the top 180 in Kenpom last year. The other two are against Wofford who ranked 111th and Wake Forest who was really good last year (35th in Kenpom), but lost its best two players to the NBA and is picked to finish 9th in the ACC this year.

The hope is that the Cayman Island Classic brings a bump in competition after Illinois State in round one. Games against Western Kentucky and then potentially Kansas State in game three would be nice to somewhat prepare this team for the SEC schedule. Parts of scheduling are out of their control, but it’s still underwhelming to me.

Season expectations

In year one of the McMahon experience, it’s hard to pin down what I think of this team based on what I’ve heard over the offseason and the individual film I’ve watched. I thought they would be predicted even lower in the SEC poll, but after the top seven I think there’s uncertainty as to who could step up. To me, those top seven are set going into the year and LSU will have to prove itself to break into that tier. 

Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama, Texas A&M, and Florida are the top seven and all received votes in the initial Top 25. With this non-conference schedule, all that matters to me is the conference season.

I believe this team will be a solid defensive team on the perimeter, but the lack of rim protection outside of freshmen Jalen Reed and Shawn Phillips has me concerned heading into the year. Offensively, there are a ton of questions. Miller coming off of injury, KJ Williams and all of the Murray State players taking a significant step up, and all of the freshmen and transfers looking to establish themselves in a new setting.

A great season would be finishing top half of the SEC and making the NCAA Tournament, but realistically, I think it will be challenging. The projections of a bubble team feel right, but it’s also a team that should have one or zero losses in the non-conference which could even put them in the top 25 at some point. Then, conference play will start and they could be underdogs in seven of their first eight games. If this team makes the tournament, McMahon deserves huge props, because the SEC is going to be brutal.

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