By the numbers: Vegas point spread of every recent Michigan-Ohio State game; five trends to know

By Clayton Sayfie

Michigan Wolverines football is a hefty 10-point underdog against Ohio State Saturday in Ann Arbor, just the second double-digit point spread in the rivalry since 2017. The other is last year’s 19.5-point line, with the Wolverines winning 13-10 despite being massive underdogs.

According to Goldsheet.com (1994-2017) and Oddshark (2018-2024), there has been only one other occurrence of a team being favored by more than 20.5 points in the rivalry, when the Buckeyes were projected to win by 21 points in 2014.

There have been 10 times that either Michigan or Ohio State has been favored by 10-plus against their rival, and the favorite had won all nine of those meetings before last season’s shocking result.

In the last 29 renditions of ‘The Game,’ the favorite is 20-9 (since 1995). It was a pick ’em game in 1994, and Ohio State won 22-6.

Michigan has won the last three meetings, but it was only favored one time, by 3 points before winning 30-24 in Ann Arbor in 2023. The Maize and Blue were 6.5-point underdogs in 2021 (won 42-27) and 9-point underdogs in 2022 (won 45-23).

Here’s a look at the point spread for every Michigan vs. Ohio State game since 1994.

Season	Location	Favorite	Betting Line	Result	Favorite win/loss
2024	Columbus	OSU	19.5	U-M 13, OSU 10	Loss
2023	Ann Arbor	U-M	3	U-M 30, OSU 24	Win
2022	Columbus	OSU	9	U-M 45, OSU 23	Loss
2021	Ann Arbor	OSU	6.5	U-M 42, OSU 27	Loss
2019	Ann Arbor	OSU	9	OSU 56, U-M 27	Win
2018	Columbus	U-M	4.5	OSU 62, U-M 39	Lost
2017	Ann Arbor	OSU	12	OSU 31, U-M 20	Win
2016	Columbus	OSU	4	OSU 30, U-M 27 (2OT)	Win
2015	Ann Arbor	OSU	1	OSU 42, U-M 13	Win
2014	Columbus	OSU	21	OSU 42, U-M 28	Win
2013	Ann Arbor	OSU	16	OSU 42, U-M 41	Win
2012	Columbus	OSU	4	OSU 26, U-M 21	Win
2011	Ann Arbor	U-M	8	U-M 40, OSU 34	Win
2010	Columbus	OSU	17	OSU 37, U-M 7	Win
2009	Ann Arbor	OSU	12	OSU 21, U-M 10	Win
2008	Columbus	OSU	20	OSU 42, U-M 7	Win
2007	Ann Arbor	OSU	4	OSU 14, U-M 3	Win
2006	Columbus	OSU	6	OSU 42, U-M 39	Win
2005	Ann Arbor	OSU	3	OSU 25, U-M 21	Win
2004	Columbus	U-M	5	OSU 37, U-M 21	Loss
2003	Ann Arbor	U-M	7	U-M 35, OSU 21	Win
2002	Columbus	OSU	4	OSU 14, U-M 9	Win
2001	Ann Arbor	U-M	8	OSU 26, U-M 20	Loss
2000	Columbus	OSU	2	U-M 38, OSU 26	Loss
1999	Ann Arbor	U-M	11	UM 24, OSU 17	Win
1998	Columbus	OSU	10	OSU 31, OSU 16	Win
1997	Ann Arbor	U-M	3	U-M 20, OSU 14	Win
1996	Columbus	OSU	17	U-M 13, OSU 9	Loss
1995	Ann Arbor	OSU	9	U-M 31, OSU 23	Loss
1994	Columbus	Pick’em	—	OSU 22, U-M 6	—

Five Ohio State trends to know

1. Ohio State on third down
Ohio State is the second-most efficient team in the country on third down, converting on 55.8 percent of attempts, behind only Indiana (57). When the Buckeyes need to, they stay on the field more times than not, and are also 9 of 13 on fourth down (69.2 percent; 15th in the country).

The interesting thing about the Buckeyes’ third-down success is that their early-down success has not only made those situations manageable but also non-existent at times. Ohio State has faced only 113 third downs this season — the fewest in the country.

The wild card is sophomore quarterback Julian Sayin, as is the case with every great quarterback. Sayin is completing 79.4 percent of his passes for 258 yards and 6 touchdowns with 1 interception on third-and-6 or longer.

2. How good is Ohio State’s rushing offense?
Despite leading a big margin in most games, Ohio State ranks only 56th in the country with 170.2 rushing yards per game and 33rd with 5 yards per carry. Those are good, not great, figures.

Michigan was exposed to the tune of 224 rushing yards in the 31-13 loss to USC, but outside of that, nobody has rushed for more than 138 yards. The Trojans averaged 6.2 yards per carry, but no other opponent has registered more than 3.5 yards per rush.

The Buckeyes start a true freshman, Bo Jackson, in the backfield, and don’t have a running quarterback, with Sayin having negative designed rush yards and only 45 scramble yards.

3. Beware of Arvell Reese
Ohio State junior linebacker Arvell Reese is one of the best overall players in the country, and someone Michigan has to be aware of. He’s not just a linebacker — he’s an edge rusher, too, and a darn good one.

Reese has taken almost more snaps on the line of scrimmage (235) than off of it (248), despite being billed as an off-ball linebacker. He’s seen all 235 of those snaps come as an edge rusher, allowing defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to get creative with his looks.

When Reese is on the edge, Michigan’s offensive line must be on high alert. He’s racked up 23 pressures on only 97 pass-rush snaps this season.

The Ringer’s Todd McShay recently tabbed Reese as the No. 1 overall pick in his mock draft, going to the Tennessee Titans.

“With [quarterback] Cam Ward in the building, the Titans can select the best player on their board — and I see a world in which Reese is viewed in league circles as the next [Green Bay Packers outside linebacker] Micah Parsons,” McShay wrote. “They’re not identical players, but I think Reese could have the same career path as a college off-ball linebacker who becomes an impact edge rusher at the next level.”

4. Can Michigan make this a four-quarter game?
It’s always an interesting dynamic when discussing a matchup between one team that’s been more “battle tested” than the other. Is Michigan being more battled tested actually a good thing? It probably means it’s worse, having lost at Oklahoma and USC, while Ohio State has won every game by multiple scores except the 14-7 season-opening victory over Texas.

Not being as battle tested is a testament to how good Ohio State has been, but it does lead to questions as to how the Buckeyes will hold up in a fourth-quarter game on the road against a quality opponent.

Sayin has only attempted 25 passes in eight games in the fourth quarter, going for 251 yards and 7 touchdowns with 1 interception. He’s only attempted 8 passes while in a two-score game in the fourth, going 6-of-8 for 119 yards and 3 touchdowns total versus Washington, Ohio and Texas. Those numbers illustrate just how easy things have been for Ohio State (again, to its credit).

5. Nobody has had any rushing success against Ohio State — a battle of strengths
Ohio State’s defensive front is fast and physical, and hasn’t given up much on the ground this season. Opponents are averaging 2.7 yards per carry (fourth nationally) and 80 rushing yards per game (second).

The team that ran the ball most effectively against Ohio State was Texas — 37 carries, 166 yards (4.5 per rush). But there have only been 4 rushing touchdowns against the Buckeyes, and only two teams have gone for more than 3.1 yards per carry (Texas, Purdue at 4.2).

Michigan, meanwhile, has one of the most elite rushing attacks in college football, slotting 10th in the FBS with 223.5 yards per game on the ground. The Wolverines have had three different running backs go over 100 yards in a game — junior Justice Haynes, sophomore Jordan Marshall and junior Bryson Kuzdzal — and freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood did so against Nebraska, too.

This matchup truly is strength on strength.