Two Big Ten teams cracked ESPN's latest Way Too Early Top 25... none are Michigan

Michigan basketball’s roster is sorted out for next season with the final piece added over the weekend. Lebanese forward Youssef Khayat closed out the offseason and helped head coach Juwan Howard fill his 13th scholarship spot. Offseason development begins now.

Heading into the first stretch the basketball-less void that is the summer, Michigan was expected to be a contender in the Big Ten, and possibly more. Given how things have played out, some analysts have cooled on them.

ESPN released its latest Way-Too-Early top 25 rankings, where Michigan fell out of consideration for the first time this offseason. They had previously ranked 20th, but analyst Jeff Borzello does not see enough right now. Two Big Ten squads drew top-25 marks: Indiana (15th) and Illinois (25th). Borzello explained what went into that.

“Trayce Jackson-Davis’ return to the Hoosiers locks them in as the preseason Big Ten favorite,” Borzello wrote. “But they will have to improve their perimeter shooting. Indiana ranked second-worst in the league last season in 3-point shooting, making just 31.9% of its attempts in conference play, as well as in 3-point attempt volume and percentage of points from 3s. That’s not going to cut it, even in a down Big Ten. Oh, and the team’s most prolific 3-point shooter, Parker Stewart, transferred out.

“But coach Mike Woodson has options. Tamar Bates, a top-25 recruit in the 2021 class, wasn’t known as a knockdown shooter coming out of high school, and five-star recruit Jalen Hood-Schifino has never been a consistent outside shooter, but a breakout season from either will boost Indiana’s perimeter production as a whole. Can someone step up and make some outside shots, though?”

Weighing in on the Illini

“Had Jacob Grandison stuck around in Champaign, I probably would have had the Fighting Illini six or seven spots higher in the rankings,” he wrote. “More importantly, his return would have almost forced Brad Underwood to play smaller lineups next season. Dain Dainja, who sat out the second half of the season after transferring from Baylor, is a replacement for Kofi Cockburn, but the plethora of wings and forwards should still allow Illinois to go smaller and more versatile up front.

“Even without Grandison, there’s a strong case to be made that Coleman Hawkins is better suited at the center spot, Matthew Mayer is more effective as a mobile stretch-4 and RJ Melendez and four-star recruit Ty Rodgers can battle for the fifth starting spot — Melendez has some positive spring buzz, and Rodgers played for the USA U18 team earlier this month. Underwood also added French big man Zacharie Perrin on Tuesday, a 6-foot-11 paint presence who put up big numbers for the French U18 team last summer.”

Why Michigan is being undervalued now

Michigan brings back center Hunter Dickinson for a third year, which is a baseline most programs would be thrilled with. That is the biggest coup of the offseason for the Wolverines. It has its lynchpin to build around, but other pieces must emerge.

The starting lineup will also be anchored by Princeton transfer point guard Jaelin Llewellyn. He averaged 15.7 points per game and shot 38.6% from three last season in the Ivy League. It will be an adjustment, but he will have better talent than ever around him.

From there, much is to be sorted out. The Wolverines bring in three top-100 recruits in center Tarris Reed (No. 32 overall), wing Jett Howard (No. 37) and point guard Dug McDaniel (No. 85). Forward Gregg Glenn (No. 111) could also be a versatile piece and diamond in the rough. Some also believe Khayat would have been a top-50 talent had he played in the states.

Michigan’s ceiling could ultimately be defined by the remaining members of its 2021 class. Three of six signees remain in guard Kobe Bufkin, wing Isaiah Barnes and forward Will Tschetter. Bufkin could get the first crack at starting at the two, while Barnes and Tschetter may be in for expanded roles.

Despite all of the above, the door is swung wide open for forward Terrance Williams to bust out in his junior season. Williams has played winning basketball as a role player at Michigan, but the program needs more now. He can be streaky offensively, but consistency will be key. In the here and now, he could be a dark horse as the team’s No. 2 scoring option behind Dickinson.

Big Ten outlook

As evidenced by Borzello’s rankings, this might be a lesser season in the conference. That could either create a wide-open race or provide a template for someone to run away with it. Three Big Ten players were taken in the top ten of the 2022 NBA Draft (Keegan Murray, Jaden Ivey, Johnny Davis). That sort of talent is not there at the present moment league-wide.

Michigan is now entering the meat and potatoes of the offseason as an underdog. It may prefer it that way considering it was last year’s preseason paper champion. There are pieces here to suggest this can be a group that makes a top-four push in the conference. But how big of a push will it be? That will take some time to percolate.