Analyst breaks down strengths, weaknesses for Michigan NBA Draft prospects Moussa Diabate, Caleb Houstan

On3 imageby:Clayton Sayfie06/23/22

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Michigan Wolverines basketball has four NBA Draft hopefuls, two of whom have a great chance of being picked Thursday night. At least one of one-and-done prospects Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate will likely be picked according to most mock drafts and projections, while Eli Brooks and DeVante’ Jones will very likely play in the summer league and begin on a G League roster.

Just ahead of tonight’s draft, The Athletic‘s Sam Vecenie dropped his extensive draft guide, which includes a breakdown of each player, ranking of the top 75 prospects and much more. Here’s a look at where Diabate and Houstan checked in, with analysis on their strengths and weaknesses.

Michigan W Caleb Houstan: No. 46 overall prospect

Vecenie ranked Houstan as the 10th-best wing in the draft (Vecenie did slot some prospects as guard/wings and wing/forwards; when accounting for wings plus those two other distinctions, Houstan checks in 20th).

STRENGTHS

“A consensus five-star recruit out of Montverde Academy in Florida, Houstan has been on the one-and-done radar for a long time,” Vecenie wrote. “Played well for Canada at the U19 World Cup in 2021. But reports out of Michigan from scouts were not particularly great from preseason trips, and Houstan looked a bit lost early in his career with the Wolverines. Did bounce back and shoot it well at the end of the year but did not earn All-Freshman honors in the Big Ten.

“Has terrific size for a wing at 6-foot-8 with something in the vein of a 7-foot wingspan. A big part of the argument for Houstan is that it’s very difficult to find wings with legitimate size who can also shoot and have potential to defend.

“The big-time skill Houstan brings is his perimeter shooting. Hit almost 36 percent from 3 in 2021-22, largely off the catch. If his feet are set, the ball is probably going through the hole. Started the season slow but caught fire as he got more comfortable with the college game. Very simple mechanics. Less of a ball dip than most teenagers, which scales well toward getting threes off at volume. Can use a high release point because of his height, which gives him an advantage against closeouts. Made 33 percent from beyond 25 feet, per Synergy. I know he wasn’t wildly successful shooting off movement at Michigan, but Houstan’s shooting form does project to be able to do so going forward. Stays balanced coming off screens. Gets off shot quickly. I’d bet his results in the NBA will be better than his college numbers indicate.

“Plays hard on defense. Closes out hard on shooters. Uses his length well to get into his man’s face. Not an awesome defender at this point, but he’s big and long.”

WEAKNESSES

“This past season did not go well for Houstan, in large part because everything outside of the shooting wasn’t good enough. Physically, he has great length but isn’t strong enough. On top of that, he doesn’t have a ton of quick-twitch explosiveness. Can’t jump off one foot or two feet effectively. Does not play through contact well. Struggles substantially when someone initiates contact with him, but he can’t initiate contact either because of how little explosion he has.

“You see his athletic shortcomings when he tries to do anything with the ball in his hands. Was a horrible finisher this past season, making less than 45 percent of his half-court attempts at the basket, per Synergy. A below-the-rim athlete. Michigan ran a set regularly that involved Houstan coming off a pindown into a dribble-handoff at the top of the key, where the whole idea was to build momentum for him to get downhill toward the basket, and he still couldn’t beat his man and elevate for an easy finish. Significant contact avoider. Tried to compensate with a floater game, but I did not like that game. He threw up some wild, offbalance ones. They all have different arcs. He tossed up one against Nebraska that looked like it might hit the ceiling of the gym.

“Also a poor ballhandler. Doesn’t have any sort of first step. Regularly puts himself off balance and off-kilter with his footwork when driving. Can only attack in straight lines. Tries to make up for it with deceleration moves like a Euro step but doesn’t have that ability to slow down and get defenders to fly by him, either. No pull-up game. Made five of his 23 attempts off the bounce
this past season.

“Defensively, he can get hit by ballhandlers with an ability to stop on a dime and hit stepbacks. He does fight to get back on the contest, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see players drive him onto his back foot and create open shots against him — ones that good NBA players will knock down. Power drivers also give him some issues because it’s too easy to go through his chest right now. It’s easy to see why offensive players don’t feel like there is a defender there when Houstan is on the ball. He ends up having to cede ground the whole way. On top of that, I have worries about how he’ll look in more space because his feet are a bit heavy.”

Wolverines F/C Moussa Diabate: No. 60 overall prospect

If Diabate were the No. 60 prospect in a mock draft, he wouldn’t be picked Thursday night, with only 58 selections on the board. But he has high upside, and a team may take their shot on the Paris native.

“There is enough here to where I wouldn’t really rule him out getting picked, but I expect him to be on a two-way contract next season,” Vecenie wrote.

STRENGTHS

“Legitimate size for a combo big at the NBA level at 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan and a standing reach at 9-foot-1 ½. On top of that, real athleticism. Very twitchy. Runs the floor well but also can slide laterally and move well on the perimeter. Plays really hard all the time too. Always active and trying to make his presence felt. One of the better places you see it is on the glass. Just aggressively attacks the glass.

“Diabaté is essentially a tools bet in that regard. Has potential to be something of a switchable big who plays hard, rebounds and provides energy. That obviously starts on defense above all. Has terrific lateral quickness and strong enough hip flexibility to be able to turn his hips if his man hits him with a crossover or stay in front to cut off his man’s angle. Obviously, uses his length and lightness on his feet well in recovery. You see his motor really pop up here. Can be scheme-versatile in ball screens once he gets
stronger.

“Diabaté is an active help-side defender (sometimes too active, but you’d rather be on that side of the spectrum than the opposite) who does a good job of making himself felt when rotating from the weak side. He can get a bit foul-prone, but he does a great job of using his length and making it tough to finish over the top. Not an elite shot blocker but fine as a rim protector.

“Offensively, Diabaté should be a finisher only right now. He made 65 percent of his attempts at the rim last season, a strong number. He was rarely involved in the primary ball-screen action for Michigan because Hunter Dickinson was the Wolverines’ primary big playmaker, but Diabaté finished well out of the dunker spot in a lot of high-low actions and dump-off opportunities. Showcased some real rim-running gifts out of ball screens when he got the chances, beating his man quickly by slipping or by
just using his speed. His little right-hand post hook was sort of useful this past season, but I’m skeptical that it’ll be helpful in the NBA.”

WEAKNESSES

“Has feel for the game and skill questions,” Vecenie began. “The biggest one? His hands are a real worry. Doesn’t always catch everything. Also has a very frustrating habit of dipping the ball below his waist on his gather to finish at the rim. Needs to really clean this up, or he could be in some trouble. Also generally doesn’t always seem to be on-balance. His footwork can be a bit messy and all over the place. Looks like he’s trying to execute too many things at once.

“Diabaté made some face-up midrange jumpers in 2021-22, but I’m a bit skeptical that he’s going to be an effective shooter from distance any time soon — and very skeptical any team will ever want him shooting from the midrange. Made just five of his 17 midrange shot attempts and just three of his 14 3-point attempts. Has loud, messy mechanics as he tries to stretch it out to 3. A lot going on. It’s a weird looking catapulting two-motion jumper that typically ends up on a straight line (but can be inconsistent
with his arc). It almost looks like he’s releasing it one-handed at times. Has a lot of work to do here.

“Defensively, the over-aggressiveness question is a real thing. He pushes himself out of the play to make weird choices in the vein of pressuring the ball-handler. Jumps to his closeouts, which can put him behind the eight-ball. A consistent foul-trouble magnet. Had at least four fouls in 12 of his 32 games this past season, a pretty wild number for a guy who wasn’t always the primary rim protector. Just commits a lot of silly fouls, like little reaches or fouling jump shooters. Has to get smarter as a defender. Also
gets buried in the paint regularly by bigger guys who can get lower than his high center of gravity, but this should improve as he gets stronger.”

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