Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Arizona

On3 imageby:Clayton Sayfie11/21/21

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Michigan basketball will square off with Arizona in the Roman Main Event championship game Sunday night in Las Vegas.

Third-year head coach Juwan Howard and the Wolverines beat UNLV, 74-61, in their first game of the event. Michigan is 3-1 on the year with a loss to Seton Hall and wins over Buffalo and Prairie View A&M.

Arizona is off to a 4-0 start under first-year head coach Tommy Lloyd, a former Gonzaga assistant. The Wildcats prevailed in overtime against Wichita State to open up the Roman Main Event, after beating Northern Arizona, UT Rio Grande Valley and North Dakota State in home games.

Here is everything you need to get ready for the game, including breakdowns on key players, analysis on the matchup, our final score prediction and more.

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Game Information: Michigan vs. Arizona

Date: Sunday, Nov. 21

Time: 6:30 p.m. PT (9:30 p.m. ET)

Venue: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, Nev.)

Channel: ESPN

On The Call: John Schriffen (play-by-play) and Robbie Hummel (color)

Radio: Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com

On The Call: Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)

Betting Line: Michigan -3.5, o/u 146

Kenpom Prediction: Michigan 74, Arizona 68

Clayton Sayfie Prediction: Arizona 71, Michigan 67

Michigan Projected Starters

• #12 – Fifth-year senior guard DeVante’ Jones (6-1, 200) — The Coastal Carolina transfer and reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year is averaging 9.3 points, 5.3 assists and 7.3 rebounds per game, while shooting 44.8 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from long range … He has 10 turnovers in four games, including five against UNLV.

• #55 – Fifth-year senior guard Eli Brooks (6-1, 185) — The team captain is posting 16.3 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists per outing, while shooting 53.7 percent overall and 50 percent from three.

• #22 – Freshman guard/forward Caleb Houstan (6-8, 205) — The former five-star recruit is registering 8.3 points and 3.8 rebounds per contest, while shooting 32.4 percent from the field and 28.6 percent (6-of-21) from deep.

• #23 – Junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (6-8, 240) — Notching 5.0 points and 2.8 boards per outing, while shooting 36.4 percent from the field and missing all four his his triple tries.

• #1 – Sophomore center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The 2021 second-team All-American is leading the team with 17.3 points and 8.0 rebounds, with 10 assists … Shooting 66.7 percent from the field and has made one of his three three-point attempts.

Key Bench Contributors

• #14 – Freshman forward Moussa Diabate (6-11, 210) — Playing 15.8 minutes per game off the bench and was on the floor for 21 minutes in the win over UNLV, scoring 14 points … Averaging 7.0 points and 5.5 rebounds per tilt … Made 11-of-17 shot attempts (64.7 percent) and is 6-of-15 from the free throw line.

• #5 – Sophomore forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 230) — Playing 18 minutes per contest, while averaging 7.3 points and 4.0 rebounds and shooting 38.1 percent from the field and 36.4 percent from long range.

• #2 – Freshman guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 175) — Averaging 10.8 minutes per game … Contributing 3.5 points and 1.5 rebounds per clash, while shooting 62.5 percent from the field and 1-of-4 from deep.

Arizona Projected Starters

• #4 – Sophomore guard Dalen Terry (6-7, 195) — The former top 50 recruit is averaging 4.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.0 assists per contest, while shooting 46.7 percent overall and 1-of-5 from long range … He plays 22.3 minutes per game and also sees time at the three position.

• #25 – Sophomore guard Kerr Kriisa (6-3, 180) — The European is putting up 12.5 points, 2.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists per contest, while shooting 41.0 percent from the field and 38.2 percent from three (13-of-34).

• #0 – Sophomore guard Bennedict Mathurin (6-6, 210) — The Canadian stood out at the 2021 FIBA U19 World Cup in Latvia while playing alongside Michigan’s Houstan, averaging 16.1 points and four rebounds per contest during the event … This season, he’s registering 15.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per outing, while shooting 39.6 percent from the field and 30.8 percent from beyond the arc.

• #10 Sophomore forward Azuolas Tubelis (6-11, 245) — The Lithuanian leads the team with 16.0 points per game, while adding 6.3 rebounds per contest … Shoots 62.2 percent from the field and is 2-of-6 from distance … Made just 57.1 percent of his free throws.

• #35 – Junior center Christian Koloko (7-1, 230) — The Cameroon native is generating 13.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 4.0 blocks per contest, while shooting 69 percent from the field … He blocks 16.8 percent of opponents’ shots when he’s on the floor (10th in the country).

Key Bench Contributors

• #5 – Sixth-year senior guard Justin Kier (6-4, 195) — The George Mason transfer plays 20.3 minutes per contest and contributes 8.3 points, 3.0 assists and 3.0 rebounds while shooting 44 percent from the field and 4-of-12 from long range.

• #3 – Sophomore guard Pelle Larsson (6-5, 215) — The Utah transfer and Sweden native averages 4.8 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists in 18 minutes per tilt, while shooting 35.3 percent from the field and 25 percent from deep.

• #11 – Redshirt sophomore center Oumar Ballo (7-0, 260) — The Gonzaga transfer sees 12 minutes of action off the bench, spelling Koloko … Has made 9-of-12 shots from the field and 16 of his 18 free throws, while posting 8.5 points and 6.5 rebounds per game.

What To Watch For

• Michigan said its loss to Seton Hall was a learning experience. Well, we’re going to see just how much the Wolverines have learned in a short period of time, since Arizona’s roster and style of play resemble the Pirates in several ways. The Wildcats are the tallest team in the country, according to Kenpom, and the 44th-deepest squad in the nation. Arizona’s shortest starter is 6-foot-3, and the Wildcats are taller than Michigan at three starting spots, with a push at center (both 7-foot-1).

• Arizona is very strong defensively, ranking second in effective field goal percentage defense (34.5) and 19th in efficiency. The Wildcats are the country’s top team in two-point field goal percentage defense (31.1) and block 20.1 percent of their opponents’ shots. It’s going to be tough sledding on the interior for a Michigan team that gets 55.4 percent of its shot attempts from inside the arc. The Wildcats have yielded just eight points on 18 post-up possessions, but Hunter Dickinson will be the top big man they’ve faced. Arizona is also solid at defending threes (26.0 percent, 61st nationally).

• The Wildcats like to get out and run offensively, with 20.5 percent of their points coming in transition. They rank 40th in adjusted tempo on Kenpom, with an 13.9-second average possession length (fourth nationally). A stellar passing team, Arizona slots first in assist per field goal made with 72.5, and it’s been able to get the ball down low for easy buckets, with a 58.9 two-point field goal percentage (29th). The Wolverines have had some defensive lapses through four games, including mental errors that result in open guys, but can’t have that happen against a great cutting team.

• In the half court, Arizona runs ball screens on 12.1 percent of its possessions, but not with much success (0.614 points per possession). The Wildcats have been elite in the post-up game, scoring 1.303 points per play, which is considered ‘excellent’ on Synergy. The Wildcats are also stellar on the offensive glass, rebounding 36.7 percent of misses (43rd in the country).

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