Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. UNLV

On3 imageby:Clayton Sayfie11/19/21

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Michigan Wolverines basketball is set to take on UNLV in the Roman Main Event in Las Vegas Friday night.

Head coach Juwan Howard and his club are 2-1, with a loss to Seton Hall and wins over Buffalo and Prairie View A&M, while first-year UNLV head man Kevin Kruger and his group are 3-0, with victories over Gardner Webb, California and North Dakota State.

This game is the back end of a double-header in the event, with the precursor being a matchup between Arizona and Wichita State.

Here is everything you need to get ready for the game, including breakdowns on key players, analysis on the matchup, our final score prediction and more.

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Game Information: Michigan vs. UNLV

Date: Friday, Nov. 19

Time: 9:30 p.m. PT

Venue: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, Nev.)

Channel: ESPN2

On The Call: John Schriffen (play-by-play) and Robbie Hummel (color)

Radio: Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com

On The Call: Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)

Betting Line: Michigan -12.5, o/u 134 points

Kenpom Prediction: Michigan 75, UNLV 60 (90-percent chance of victory)

Clayton Sayfie Prediction: Michigan 77, UNLV 59

Michigan Projected Starters

• #12 – Fifth-year senior guard DeVante’ Jones (6-1, 200) — The Coastal Carolina transfer and reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year is averaging 9.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game, while shooting 40.9 percent from the field and 2-of-5 from long range.

• #55 – Fifth-year senior guard Eli Brooks (6-1, 185) — The team captain is posting 14.3 points, 4.0 rebounds and 3.3 assists per outing, while shooting 53.3 percent overall and 45.5 percent from three.

• #22 – Freshman guard/forward Caleb Houstan (6-8, 205) — The former five-star recruit is registering 9.3 points and 3.7 rebounds per contest, while shooting 38.5 percent from the field and 31.3 percent from deep.

• #23 – Junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (6-8, 240) — Notching 4.3 points and 3.3 boards per outing, while shooting 29.4 percent from the field and missing all four his his triple tries.

• #1 – Sophomore center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The 2021 second-team All-American is leading the team with 18.7 points and 8.3 rebounds, with seven assists … Shooting 66.7 percent from the field and has made one of his two three-point attempts.

Key Bench Contributors

• #14 – Freshman forward Moussa Diabate (6-11, 210) — Playing 14 minutes per game off the bench and averaging 4.7 points and 5.0 rebounds … Made 5-of-10 shot attempts and is 4-of-9 from the free throw line.

• #5 – Sophomore forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 230) — Playing 19.3 minutes per contest, while averaging 9.0 points and 4.3 rebounds and shooting 44.4 percent from the field and 50 percent from long range.

• #2 – Freshman guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 175) — Averaging 10 minutes per game … Contributing 4.0 points and 1.7 rebounds per clash, while shooting 71.4 percent from the field and 1-of-3 from deep.

UNLV Projected Starters

• #13 – Senior guard Bryce Hamilton (6-4, 205) — Leads the team with 17 points per game, while adding 4.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists … Shooting 37.5 precent from the field and is just 3-of-18 from long range.

• #5 – Senior guard Jordan McCabe (6-0, 190) — Missed the first game but has started the first two … Posting 10.0 points, 3.0 assists and 1.5 rebounds per game and is shooting 53.8 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from beyond the three-point arc.

• #1 – Fifth-year senior guard Michael Nuga (6-2, 180) — Averaging 7.3 points and 3.7 rebounds per game, while shooting 34.8 percent from the field and 2-of-12 from long range.

• #22 – Junior guard Josh Baker (6-4, 175) — The JUCO transfer has started all three games but has made a minimal impact, shooting 1-of-9 from deep and 1-of-11 overall, while adding five assists and two rebounds.

• Fifth-year senior forward Royce Hamm Jr. (6-9, 225) — Averaging 9.3 points and a team-high 13.7 rebounds per contest, while shooting 50 percent from the field.

Key Bench Contributors

• #3 – Junior forward Donovan Williams (6-6, 190) — Despite not starting, the Texas transfer plays the most minutes at the four spot, averaging 23.3 minutes per contest, and has the second-highest usage rate on the team (25.8) … Averaging 11,0 points and 5.0 rebounds per contest, while shooting 37.9 percent from the field and 4-of-11 from long range.

• #31 – Senior guard Marvin Coleman (6-3, 200) — Averaging 2.0 points and 5.0 boards per game, primarily playing the three and four positions off the bench for 21.7 minutes per game … Shoots 25 percent overall and is 1-of-3 from deep.

• #10 – Freshman guard Keson Gilbert (6-4, 180) — The backup point guard is scoring 3.0 points and dishing out 2.0 assists per tilt, while shooting 36.4 percent from the field and 1-of-3 from beyond the arc.

What To Watch For

• When it comes to the UNLV offense, Bryce Hamilton makes the entire thing go. His 36.9 usage rate ranks 10th in the entire NCAA, and he takes 43.8 percent of the team’s shots when he’s on the floor (second nationally). We’d assume Brooks draws this matchup for Michigan, and he’s been a plus defender for three years now even though opponents are shooting 48.1 percent with him as the primary defender this season, per Synergy.

• UNLV has one of the worst effective field goal percentages in the nation (40.5; 323rd) and is connecting on just 21.9 percent of its three-pointers. It has hit 45.5 percent of two-point attempts.

The Runnin’ Rebels hardly ever post up, and 52.9 percent of their attempts from the field in the half court are jump shots despite shooting 25.3 percent on such looks. They’re particularly good around the basket in non post-up situations, scoring 1.354 points per possession. Though UNLV runs the pick-and-roll on just 11 percent of its half-court plays, it has cashed in to the tune of 0.964 points per possession, with Hamilton as the ball handler 50 percent of the time.

• Michigan struggled against the height and length that Seton Hall possessed, but that shouldn’t be an issue in this game. UNLV ranks 277th nationally in height on Kenpom.com with the average player on the team standing 6-4.4.

The Runnin’ Rebels are particularly small on the wing, with Michael Nuga and backup Marvin Coleman standing 6-2 and 6-3, respectively, meaning Michigan should get some favorable matchups on the offensive end with Caleb Houstan (6-8) having the advantage. This might be the perfect opportunity for Houstan, who shot 1-of-9 against Seton Hall, to have a bounce-back performance.

Hunter Dickinson also has at least three inches on any player UNLV will trot out there at the five spot. The team has allowed 0.625 points per possession on post-ups, which is considered ‘very good’ on Synergy, but it also hasn’t faced a player like Dickinson or a team like Michigan and that’s on the small sample size of 16 plays.

• From an overall defensive standpoint, UNLV has fared well through three games, allowing just 0.956 points per possession and ranking 93rd nationally in efficiency. The Runnin’ Rebels’ 41.8 effective field goal percentage defense ranks 41st in the country, and they’re allowing opponents to shoot just 25.8 percent from three (54th) and 43.5 percent inside the arc (77th).

• Kenpom has this as a 15-point Michigan win, while it opened as a 13.5-point spread on the sportsbooks before it was bet down to 12.5 points. The Wolverines are coming off a loss, but have some decided advantages in the matchup … and UNLV has barely skated by in all three of its victories. The Runnin’ Rebels have won by six, three and two points, respectively, against teams that all rank 120th or worse in overall efficiency.

• A team spokesman told us that the Wolverines will likely be without Zeb Jackson for both games this weekend, but that he will likely dress, indicating that his return should be soon. The Wolverines have gone with a tight rotation, especially in the second half against Seton Hall, so it’ll be interesting to see what Howard goes with in this one.

• Michigan will know its opponent for Sunday immediately after the game, and it’ll be the winner of Arizona and Wichita State, with that game being the opener of the event. The Wildcats are projected as five-point favorites on Kenpom.

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