Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Arizona State

No. 20 Michigan Wolverines basketball and Arizona State will do battle for the Legends Classic championship Thursday night in Brooklyn. U-M blew out Pittsburgh, 91-60, in the first round, while ASU came back to beat VCU, 63-59.

The matchup pits Michigan against one of its former players, ASU sophomore point guard Frankie Collins. The Sun Devils will be without starting forward Marcus Bagley, a former top-25 recruit in the 2020 class who has dealt with injuries his entire career. He did not make the trip to Brooklyn.

ASU is 3-1 with wins over Tarleton State (62-59), Northern Arizona and the aforementioned victory over VCU, and a 67-66 overtime loss at Texas Southern. Michigan, meanwhile, has triumphs over Purdue Fort Wayne (75-56), Eastern Michigan (88-83) and Pitt.

Here is everything you need to know before tip-off.

RELATED

• Fab Five: Takeaways from Michigan’s win over Pittsburgh

• Michigan basketball thrashes Pitt, 91-60

Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Arizona State

Date	Thursday, Nov. 17, 2022
Venue	Barclays Center (Brooklyn, N.Y.)
Time	9 p.m. ET or 25 minutes after VCU vs. Pittsburgh, which begins at 7 p.m.
TV / Stream	ESPN2 / Watch ESPN
On The Call	Kevin Brown (play-by-play) and Jon Crispin (analyst)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Michigan -7.5, o.u 141.5
Kenpom Prediction	Michigan 75, Arizona State 68

Michigan projected starters

• #3 – Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn (6-2, 190) — The 2022 first-team All-Ivy League standout is putting up 7.3 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game while shooting 35 percent from the field and 0-of-8 from long range … Producing 1.077 points per possession on ball screens (including passes).

• #2 – Sophomore guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 195) — Fresh off posting career highs in both points (14) and assists (4) in the win over Pitt … Averaging 10.3 points, 3 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game … Shooting 44.8 percent from the field, including just 1-of-10 from three.

• #13 – Freshman guard Jett Howard (6-8, 215) — The head coach’s son scored 17 points on 6-of-8 shooting, including 2-of-3 from long range, versus Pitt … Averaging 15.7 points, 3 assists and 2.3 rebounds per outing and leading the team with 9 made triples on 20 tries … Has a 65.4 effective field goal percentage on spot-up shots.

• #5 – Junior forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 225) — Recording 9 points and 8 rebounds per clash while connecting on 40 percent of his overall shots and 33.3 percent of his three-pointers.

• #1 – Junior center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The two-time All-Big Ten performer and 2021 second-team All-American is in the 93rd percentile nationally with 1.3 points per post-up possession … Averaging 21.3 points and 8.7 rebounds per game while shooting a whopping 69.2 percent from the field and just 0-of-1 from three-point range … Recorded 11 points on 11 shots against Pitt.

Key bench contributors

• #0 – Freshman guard Dug McDaniel (5-11, 160) — Averaging 16.3 minutes per game and tallying 3.3 points, 4.3 assists and 2.7 boards … Shoots 26.7 percent overall (0-of-2 from beyond the arc) … Just registered 8 points and 8 assists against Pitt.

• #15 – Graduate guard Joey Baker (6-7, 205) — The Duke transfer went off for 14 points on 4-of-5 shooting from three-point range in the win over Pitt … Averaging 8 points per game while shooting 7-of-12 from long range.

• #32 – Freshman forward Tarris Reed Jr. (6-10, 260) — Michigan’s highest-rated 2022 signee is recording 3 points and 2 rebounds in 10.3 minutes per night … Connects on 66.7 percent of his field goals and is just 1-of-6 from the free throw line.

Arizona State projected starters

• #10 – Sophomore guard Frankie Collins (6-1, 185) — The Michigan transfer is averaging 16 points, 4.8 assists and 5 rebounds per game while shooting 41.2 percent from the field (21-of-51), including a 5-of-16 mark from three-point range … Has the team’s highest usage rate at 29.0 and takes 26.5 percent of the Sun Devils’ shots when he’s on the floor … Has turned the ball over 18 times … Inefficient as a pick-and-roll ball handler, generating 0.721 points per possession (including passes).

• #0 – Junior guard DJ Horne (6-1, 175) — The Illinois State transfer led ASU in scoring in 2021-22 (12.5 points per game) while shooting 36 percent from three-point range … Registering 13.5 points, 7 boards and 2.5 assists per outing this season, with a 33.3 field goal percentage and a 30.4-percent clip from long range (7-of-23) … Used as a spot-up shooter, where he’s made 50 percent of his shots this year, and a pick-and-roll ball handler, where he’s produced a lowly 0.286 points per play.

• #4 – Fifth-year senior guard Desmond Cambridge Jr. (6-4, 180) — The Nevada transfer is starting in replacement of the injured Marcus Bagley, who did not make the trip to New York … He’s 7-of-12 from two-point range but 0-of-10 from beyond the three-point arc.

• #35 – Senior forward Devan Cambridge (6-6, 215) — The Auburn transfer is putting up 7.3 points and 6 rebounds per contest, while shooting 32.1 percent from the field, including a 5-of-12 stat line from three-point range (41.7 percent) and 6-of-11 from the free throw line … Stellar shot blocker for his size, deflecting 6 percent of field goal attempts while he’s on the floor, and strong on the offensive glass with a 9.3 offensive rebounding rate.

• #22 – Senior forward Warren Washington (7-0, 225) — The Nevada transfer averages 7.3 points and 6.3 rebounds in 22 minutes per game, while shooting a strong 60 percent from the field (all two-pointers) … Solid posting up, on put-backs and as a roller on pick-and-rolls … Allowed 7 points on 10 possessions as a post-up defender.

Key bench contributors

• #32 – Senior forward / center Alonzo Gaffney (6-9, 200) — The Ohio State transfer shot 52.1 percent on two-pointers last year at ASU and can stretch the floor (15-of-49 on three-pointers) but isn’t dangerous from deep … He plays 22 minutes per game at the power forward and center spots.

• #2 – Freshman guard Austin Nunez (6-2, 170) — Scored 10 points on 4-of-7 shooting from the field and 2-of-2 from long range in Wednesday’s win over VCU, playing a career-high 24 minutes off the bench … Averages 6.3 points and 2 rebounds per game … Plays a backup role at both guard spots.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. Frankie Collins

Either way, Michigan was going to play at least one former player this week, with VCU having Brandon Johns Jr. and Zeb Jackson on its roster. But this is undoubtedly the more intriguing and entertaining matchup, and it’ll be fun to watch Collins go up against Llewellyn and McDaniel. Collins left Michigan almost immediately after the Wolverines brought in Llewellyn from Princeton, so he likely feels he has something to prove.

Collins went to ASU to take on a larger role, potentially feeling he was “recruited over” at Michigan (who’s not in today’s college basketball? Keep in mind, bringing him into the fold in Tempe meant another player on the roster was recruited over). And he’s done just that, having the ball in his hands quite a bit.

While his scoring is up (15-plus points in three of four games, including two 20-plus point efforts), his efficiency has been erratic. He’s taking a lot of shots, turning the ball over on 25.7 percent of ASU’s possessions when he’s on the floor and is only 5-of-16 on three-pointers. He took 11 attempts from deep in the season opener, making 4, but has since stopped trying as many.

Michigan will likely throw a few guys at Collins throughout the game. It wouldn’t surprise if Bufkin is first, even though Llewellyn would be the natural matchup as the point guard. McDaniel matches up well with Collins athletically, too. It’ll be fun to see those two go at it.

As long as Michigan stays disciplined and communicates on ball screens, it should be able to turn Collins and Co. over and force him into some tough shots.

2. Arizona State offense

This is an Arizona State offense that unsurprisingly resembles the way that Collins plays. They push the pace, averaging 15.9 seconds per possession, turn the ball over 21 percent of the time, get to the foul line a lot but don’t make free throws at a great rate (66.7 percent), and are inefficient on twos (44) and threes (29.4).

Per Synergy, ASU is average or worse at every single play type outside of transition, where they score 1.085 points per play, which is considered “good” and in the 58th percentile nationally. The Sun Devils run a lot of ball screens but are poor at 0.647 points per trip (including passes).

3. Arizona State defense

ASU hasn’t ranked better than 75th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency since 2018. It’s long been a struggle on that end of the floor, and this season is no different.

Defense has been the Sun Devils’ calling card, and that too has stayed true this year. They slot 35th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and are coming off allowing just 0.87 points per play to a VCU team that checks in 192nd in offense.

The Sun Devils block a lot of shots, are good at limiting three-point attempts and opponents are shooting only 25.6 percent from beyond the arc. They’re solid on the inside, too, giving up a 45-percent clip on twos.

They haven’t had to double team the post very often this season, but it’ll be interesting to see how they play Dickinson and Michigan. They have the size, but it’s hard to ask any defender to take on the two-time All-Big Ten honoree for an entire game.

The Sun Devils play pressure defense on 12.1 percent of possessions and exclusively play man-to-man.

Prediction

Michigan showed signs of growth in a blowout win over Pittsburgh. Specifically, the ball movement was great, the scoring was more balanced and the defense tightened up after a slow start. The Panthers are the worst team at this event, though, so the result isn’t worth overreacting about.

Dating back to last season, we like the Wolverines in matchups against teams that aren’t good offensively, and that’s exactly what this is. The Sun Devils are solid, even good, on defense, but scoring really hasn’t been an issue for Michigan, even when the three-point shots aren’t falling like they did in the second half last night (7-of-9).

A key for the Maize and Blue is to not let ASU speed them up. Play Michigan basketball, take care of the ball and make the Sun Devils work on offense.

Prediction: Michigan 77, ASU 65