Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Jackson State
Michigan Wolverines basketball will host Jackson State Wednesday night at Crisler Center. The Maize and Blue bounced back with a 70-66 overtime win over Ohio, after a blowout loss to Arizona State in Brooklyn (87-62), and are looking to keep the momentum going.
Previously ranked No. 20, Michigan fell out of the AP top 25 this week, due to the Arizona State loss. The Maize and Blue are 4-1 with wins over Purdue Fort Wayne (75-56), Eastern Michigan (88-83), Pittsburgh (91-60) and the Bobcats.
Jackson State, meanwhile, is still searching for its first victory of the season, after going 11-19 in the SWAC a year ago. They’ve been defeated by Abilene Christian (65-56), Tulsa (85-79) and Little Rock (94-91). All three teams rank 150th or worse in Kenpom’s overall adjusted efficiency margin. The Tigers slot 307th in the land.
Jackson State, led by first-year head coach Mo Williams, won’t play a home game until Jan. 7. The Tigers will head to Bloomington to take on Indiana Friday night. Michigan is the first of five high-majors they’ll play until their home opener.
Here’s everything else you need to know before tip-off.
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Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Jackson State
| Date | Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2022 |
| Venue | Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.) |
| Time | 8:37 p.m. ET |
| TV / Stream | Big Ten Network / Fox Sports app |
| On The Call | Jason Ross Jr. (play-by-play) and Trent Meachem (color) |
| Radio | Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com |
| On The Call | Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color) |
| Betting Line | Michigan -21.5, o/u 144.5 |
| Kenpom Prediction | Michigan 84, Jackson State 62 |
Michigan projected starters
• #3 – Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn (6-2, 190) — The 2022 first-team All-Ivy League standout is putting up 7.4 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game while shooting 32.4 percent from the field and 2-of-17 from long range … Producing 1 points per possession on ball screens (including passes), which ranks in the 73rd percentile nationally.
• #2 – Sophomore guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 195) — Averaging 9 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game … Shooting 35.4 percent from the field, including just 2-of-19 from three.
• #13 – Freshman guard Jett Howard (6-8, 215) — The head coach’s son is posting 14.4 points, 2.8 assists and 2 rebounds per outing and leading the team with 14 made triples on 34 tries (41.2 percent) … Has a 63.6 effective field goal percentage on spot-up shots.
• #5 – Junior forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 225) — Recording 8 points and 7.2 rebounds per clash while connecting on 37.1 percent of his overall shots and 30 percent of his three-pointers.
• #1 – Junior center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The two-time All-Big Ten performer and 2021 second-team All-American is in the 77th percentile nationally with 1.106 points per post-up possession … Averaging 20.4 points and 9 rebounds per game while shooting a whopping 60.9 percent from the field and 2-of-5 from three-point range.
Key bench contributors
• #0 – Freshman guard Dug McDaniel (5-11, 160) — Averaging 16.2 minutes per game and tallying 3.8 points, 3 assists and 2.4 boards … Shoots 28.6 percent overall (1-of-7 from beyond the arc).
• #15 – Graduate guard Joey Baker (6-7, 205) — The Duke transfer is averaging 5.2 points per game while shooting 7-of-14 from long range.
• #32 – Freshman forward Tarris Reed Jr. (6-10, 260) — Michigan’s highest-rated 2022 signee is recording 2.8 points and 2.4 rebounds in 10.4 minutes per night … Connects on 55.6 percent of his field goals and is just 4-of-12 from the free throw line.
Jackson State projected starters
• #10 – Junior guard Chase Adams (5-8, 144) — The JUCO transfer is averaging 4.3 points, 3 assists and 2.3 rebounds per game, while shooting 4-of-15 from the field, including a 1-of-4 mark from deep … He’s scored most of his points in transition, and struggles as a ball-screen creator, which is no surprise given his height.
• #0 – Senior guard Gabe Watson (6-2, 190) — The Tulane (2020-21) and Southern Miss (2018-20) transfer averaged 14.9 points per game with Jackson State last season … He’s third on the team this year with 9.3 points per outing, while adding 3.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists per night … Shooting 32.4 percent from the field and 15.4 percent from long range (2-of-13) … He’s a spot-up shooter but is extremely inefficient.
• #2 – Redshirt sophomore guard Ken Evans Jr. (6-5, 200) — He’s made a huge jump from last season, averaging 18 points per game after putting up 7.1 points per contest a year ago … Adding 4.7 rebounds and 1.3 assists per tilt, while shooting 45.6 percent overall — 51.9 percent on twos and 37.5 percent on threes … He’s a spot-up shooter and slasher, shooting 66.7 percent at the rim.
• #3 – Redshirt senior guard / forward Trace Young (6-8, 193) — The Alabama State transfer is posting 15 points and 6.3 rebounds per night, while shooting 44.4 percent from the field and 35.3 percent from beyond the three-point arc … Nailed 5 triples on 9 tries against Little Rock, after starting off the season 1-of-8 … Is a spot-up shooter and can be used as the roller on pick-and-rolls.
• #13 – Junior forward Romelle Mansel (6-9, 195) — The Long Beach State transfer averages 8.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game … Shoots 52.6 percent from the field … Attempted, and made, just 1 three-pointer this year … Does not stretch the floor, and is primarily used as a cutter, post-up big and ball-screen roller.
Key bench contributors
• #4 – Sophomore guard Coltie Young (6-3, 201) — Averaging 2.7 points per game, going 3-of-11 shooting from the field and 2-of-8 from long range.
• #45 – Sophomore guard / forward Jayme Mitchell (6-5, 185) — Posting 6.3 points and 1.7 rebounds per outing, while shooting 50 percent from the field, including a 2-of-6 mark from downtown.
• #31 – Senior forward Jamarcus Jones (6-5, 203) — Posts 7 points and 4.7 rebounds per clash, while shooting 10-of-13 from the field, all two-pointers.
1. What to make of an odd Jackson State team
Michigan played a weird game against a weird team the night before Thanksgiving last year, beating Tarleton State, 65-54. Tarleton State and Jackson State play at a completely different tempo — the former slowed the game way down and the latter loves to push the face — but they are both undersized, which makes for an interesting watch against a Michigan team with lots of size and length.
We’ve truly never seen a 5-8, 144-pound point guard, but that’s what Jackson State touts in Adams. The Tigers start a 6-foot-9 Mansel at center.
Michigan easily has the size advantage, but Jackson State will try to muck it up with double teams and quick rotations. The Tigers are 88th nationally in steal rate (11.3) and force turnovers on 21.3 percent of opponents’ possessions. This could be an ugly game from a flow and aesthetic standpoint.
Jackson State is a terrible shooting team — 30.3 percent on threes, 50.4 percent on twos — and turns the ball over on 20.9 percent of its possessions. The Tigers are good on the offensive glass, though, grabbing 32.8 percent of their own missed shots. Michigan has struggled on the defensive boards, and it’ll take everyone to get a body on somebody, box out and clean up on the glass.
2. Can Michigan start fast? Other keys for the Wolverines
Even in Michigan’s four wins, it’s gotten off to slow starts and had to climb out of early holes (8-4 against Purdue Fort Wayne, 14-9 versus Eastern Michigan, 10-4 against Pittsburgh, 16-8 against Ohio and 31-11 in the loss to Arizona State). The Wolverines can probably do that Wednesday and still come out with a comfortable win, but at some point they’re going to have to start the game with energy and crisp execution.
We saw Michigan lock in defensively in the final 10 or so minutes of Sunday’s overtime win over Ohio, and while it was frustrating they didn’t do it in the previous 35 minutes, it’s encouraging that they showed that gear, even against what’s expected to be a middle-of-the-road MAC team. Head coach Juwan Howard sent a message to his starters by benching them early, and the same message was likely sent in practice leading up.
Jackson State doesn’t run many ball screens, so Michigan’s roughest area won’t be exposed, but they have to be sound on the boards. On the offensive end, hitting open three-pointers will absolutely kill any confidence Jackson State has. The Tigers are allowing 41.4 percent of opponents’ shots to come from long range and are defending those very poorly, with teams shooting 38.9 percent from deep. They’re not good on the inside either, yielding a 55.9-percent clip on twos.
Prediction
This is a key week for Michigan basketball. Sunday’s win wasn’t pretty, but it was a heck of a lot better than a loss, and if the Wolverines make the NCAA Tournament in March, nobody will be talking about that game other than to look back and laugh at how much of a struggle it was.
While Jackson State is an unusual team stylistically, their ability to rebound from all five positions (five players average 3.7 or more rebounds per game) will test what has been a weak area for the Maize and Blue. Hit some shots, get the confidence back there, and get back to work with six days in between this one and the Virginia tilt next Tuesday.
Prediction: Michigan 80, Jackson State 61
