Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Ohio

On3 imageby:Clayton Sayfie11/20/22

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Michigan Wolverines basketball is looking to bounce back from an embarrassing, 87-62 loss to Arizona State Thursday in Brooklyn, with the 1-2 Ohio Bobcats set for a Sunday night game at Crisler Center.

Michigan has wins over Purdue Fort Wayne (75-56), Eastern Michigan (88-83) and Pittsburgh (91-60), and is ranked No. 20 in the country after a 3-0 start. Ohio, meanwhile, is ranked 207th overall on Kenpom and lost to Belmont (70-69) and Detroit Mercy (88-74) on the road with a home win over Cleveland State (88-74).

Bobcats head coach Jeff Boals has run a solid MAC program, having gotten his team to the NCAA Tournament’s second round as a No. 13 seed, upsetting Virginia in the first round, back in 2021. However, Ohio was picked to finish fifth in the MAC heading into this season and is off to a rough start.

Here is everything else you need to know before tip.

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Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Ohio

DateSunday, Nov. 20, 2022
VenueCrisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)
Time7:30 p.m. ET
TV / StreamBig Ten Network / Fox Sports app
On The CallConnor Onion (play-by-play) and Rapheal Davis (color)
RadioDetroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The CallBrian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting LineMichigan -15.5, o/u 148
Kenpom PredictionMichigan 83, Ohio 66

Michigan projected starters

• #3 – Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn (6-2, 190) — The 2022 first-team All-Ivy League standout is putting up 6.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game while shooting 34.6 percent from the field and 0-of-11 from long range … Producing 0.971 points per possession on ball screens (including passes).

• #2 – Sophomore guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 195) — Averaging 9 points, 3 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game … Shooting 36.8 percent from the field, including just 1-of-13 from three.

• #13 – Freshman guard Jett Howard (6-8, 215) — The head coach’s son is posting 14.8 points, 2.5 assists and 2 rebounds per outing and leading the team with 11 made triples on 27 tries … Has a 58.8 effective field goal percentage on spot-up shots.

• #5 – Junior forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 225) — Recording 7.8 points and 7 rebounds per clash while connecting on 40 percent of his overall shots and 30.8 percent of his three-pointers.

• #1 – Junior center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The two-time All-Big Ten performer and 2021 second-team All-American is in the 81st percentile nationally with 1.189 points per post-up possession … Averaging 19.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game while shooting a whopping 62.3 percent from the field and just 0-of-3 from three-point range.

Key bench contributors

• #0 – Freshman guard Dug McDaniel (5-11, 160) — Averaging 17.3 minutes per game and tallying 4.3 points, 3.8 assists and 2.5 boards … Shoots 29/2 percent overall (1-of-5 from beyond the arc).

• #15 – Graduate guard Joey Baker (6-7, 205) — The Duke transfer is averaging 6.5 points per game while shooting 7-of-13 from long range.

• #32 – Freshman forward Tarris Reed Jr. (6-10, 260) — Michigan’s highest-rated 2022 signee is recording 3.5 points and 2.5 rebounds in 10.5 minutes per night … Connects on 62.5 percent of his field goals and is just 4-of-12 from the free throw line.

Ohio projected starters

• #12 – Junior guard Jaylin Hunter (6-0, 195) — The Old Dominion transfer averaged 9.7 points, 4 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game with his previous program last season … The lefty is putting up 10.7 points, 4 assists and 2.7 rebounds per clash this season, while shooting 37.5 percent overall and 41.2 percent from beyond the arc … Runs the most pick-and-rolls on the team, generating 0.938 points per play.

• #22 – Senior guard DeVon Baker (6-2, 190) — The Tulane (2022) and UNC Asheville (2019-21) transfer is averaging 13.7 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2 assists per game … Shoots 10-of-24 on two-pointers and 6-of-12 on threes … Runs the second-most ball screens on the team, producing 1 point per play (80th percentile nationally).

• #2 – Senior guard Miles Brown (6-1, 180) — Registering 12.3 points, 2.3 assists and 1.7 rebounds per outing, while shooting 50 percent from the field, including a 50-percent clip from long range (5-of-10) … Has an 85.7 effective field goal percentage on spot-up shots.

• #23 – Sophomore forward AJ Clayton (6-8, 225) — Posting 9.7 points and 5.3 rebounds per tilt, while shooting 52.4 percent from the field … Is 4-of-11 from three-point range (36.4 percent) and made 26 triples on 68 tries a year ago … Scores in transition, on spot-up opportunities and on put-backs.

• #4 – Graduate forward Dwight Wilson III (6-8, 250) — Missed all of last season with an injury … Averaging 10.7 points and 11.7 rebounds per game while connecting on 52 percent shooting from the field (no three-point attempts) … Loves to post up on the right block … Is scoring 1.111 points per post-up possession, shooting 8-of-14 on such situations … Ranked in the 94th percentile nationally with 0.973 points per post up last season … Also graded out well in post-up defense, allowing just 0.667 points per play (92nd percentile).

Key bench contributors

#3 – Senior forward Ben Roderick (6-5, 205) — Notching 6.7 points per game while shooting 70 percent from the field, including 3-of-5 from long range.

#11 – Junior center Gabe Wiznitzer (6-11, 240) — The Louisville transfer is averaging just 13.3 minutes per game … Contributing 3 points and 1 rebound per clash.

What to watch for

1. Michigan’s bounce-back effort

Michigan’s 87-62 loss to Arizona State Thursday in Brooklyn was a disaster — there’s no other way to put it. The Wolverines showed little fight while getting worked on both ends of the floor by a should-be inferior opponent.

Getting Ohio and Jackson State ahead of next week’s ACC/Big Ten Challenge game against Virginia is a great opportunity to reset and build some confidence back. Kentucky (Dec. 4), the Big Ten opener against Minnesota (Dec. 8) and North Carolina (Dec. 21) loom next month, providing for a crucial stretch for the Maize and Blue.

Michigan’s offense was broke against ASU but has been stellar the rest of the young season. What needs to change, first and foremost, is the defense. We didn’t expect this team to be a great defensive squad entering the year, but they can’t be disastrous on that end if they’re going to compete for the Big Ten title.

It starts with staying in front of Ohio’s smaller, quick guards on the perimeter. All three of Hunter, Baker and Brown will run a lot of ball screens (Ohio runs 28 pick-and-rolls per game, the 29th-most in the country) and can make plays. Michigan has struggled to guard on the perimeter this season, and the fact that the Bobcats have three ball-handlers of that size will make it a challenge for Jett Howard, whose defense has left a lot to be desired (to say the least).

The entire ball screen defense operation will be tested, even if Michigan has a significant edge in talent. The Wolverines rank 322nd nationally with 0.948 points per play allowed out of ball screens.

2. Ohio can shoot

Despite being 1-2, this Ohio team does shoot the ball well (54.3 effective field goal percentage, 39.7 percent from three, 50.9 percent on twos, 87.5 percent on free throws). Ohio has seen 36.2 percent of its field goals come from long range, the 79th-most in the country.

Michigan will have to contest shots so that the Bobcats don’t get in a rhythm and build confidence as the game goes on.

On the flip side, the defense has been horrid. The Bobcats are allowing 1.04 points per play (264th nationally), a 55.9 effective field goal percentage (314th), 35.8 three-point percentage (238th) and 57.3 two-point percentage (322nd).

Michigan will have the advantage on the inside against a largely undersized Ohio front line. As mentioned above, Wiznitzer, the team’s tallest player at 6-11, plays just 13 minutes per game.

Prediction

Michigan is in good position to show that it’s ready to fight back and improve. All was not lost on Thursday night if the Wolverines commit to getting better. Much like last season, if they’re a halfway decent / above average team by late January, they’re going to have a shot to make some noise down the stretch of the season.

Ohio poses somewhat of a threat stylistically, and keep an eye on the Michigan defense. But playing through Dickinson and shredding what is a bad Bobcat team on the defensive end should be fairly easy and a clear path to a decisive victory.

Prediction: Michigan 85, Ohio 68

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