Previewing Michigan vs. Michigan State with a Spartans insider

By Clayton Sayfie

TheWolverine.com caught up with Michigan State writer Graham Couch of the Lansing State Journal ahead of Saturday’s matchup between the Spartans and Michigan Wolverines football. Couch broke down MSU and offered a final score prediction. We begin with the projected starting lineup for the Spartans.

Michigan State projected starters on offense

• #2 – Junior QB Aidan Chiles (6-3, 225) — A veteran and two-time MSU team captain who’s played in 28 games with 19 starts in college, the Long Beach, Calif., native has completed 65.1 percent of his passes (114-of-175) for 1,262 yards and 10 touchdowns with 3 interceptions this season. Chiles ranks 10th in the Big Ten with 7.2 yards per pass. He’s added 66 rushes for 243 yards and 5 touchdowns, with a 64-yard long. Chiles has been under pressure on 33.5 percent of his dropbacks, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt in those situations. His average depth of target is 9.3 yards, and he’s completed 27 passes of 10-plus air yards.

• #5 – Sophomore RB Makhi Frazier (5-10, 218) — Rushed 94 times for 384 yards (4.1-yard average) and 2 touchdowns this season. He’s averaging 2.4 yards after contact per rush and has forced 15 missed tackles. Frazier has 15 runs of 10-plus yards, which rank tied fifth in the Big Ten.

• #1 – Senior WR Omari Kelly (6-0, 188) — The Middle Tennessee State transfer was a first-team All-Conference USA selection last season. He leads the Spartans with 406 receiving yards on 27 catches, with 1 touchdown grab. Kelly has caught 5 passes of 20-plus air yards and 9 between 10-19.

• #6 – Sophomore WR Nick Marsh (6-3, 203) — Leads the Spartans with 36 catches, going for 404 yards and a team-high 5 touchdowns. He’s reeled in only 5 grabs of 10-plus air yards and has thrived mostly on short passes. He’s averaging 5.9 yards after the catch per reception. Last year, Marsh set true freshman program records for most receiving yards (649) and receptions (41) in a single season. He notched 4 receptions for 42 yards and a touchdown against Michigan a season ago.

• #13 – Redshirt junior WR Chrishon McCray (5-10, 171) — The Kent State transfer led his former team with 705 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns with 40 receptions last season. The slot receiver has hauled in 13 grabs for 207 yards and a touchdown this year.

• #12 – Senior TE Jack Velling (6-5, 245) — Caught 17 passes for 143 yards and 2 scores. For his career, Velling has compiled 98 receptions for 1,273 yards and 14 touchdowns, having played two seasons at Oregon State from 2022-23 before transferring.

• #58 – Redshirt junior LT Conner Moore (6-5, 306) — The Montana State (FCS) transfer has started every game this season, including the last three at left tackle. He’s filled in at this position since starter Stanton Ramil went down with an injury. He has a 69.2 overall PFF rating but has struggled in pass protection, allowing 15 pressures with 4 sacks.

• #74 – Redshirt junior LG Gavin Broscious (6-4, 308) — Made his second start of the season in last week’s 38-13 loss to Indiana. He’s played 288 offensive snaps on the year and posted a 62.5 overall PFF rating with 4 pressures and no sacks given up in pass protection. He played in three games with two starts before suffering a season-ending injury last season.

• #51 – Redshirt senior C Matt Gulbin (6-4, 312) — The Wake Forest transfer has started 30 college games and was an honorable mention All-ACC pick last season. His 80.9 overall PFF grade ranks second among Big Ten centers with 100-plus offensive snaps. He’s allowed 2 pressures, including 1 sack, this year.

• #72 – Redshirt senior RG Caleb Carter (6-3, 305) — The Western Carolina transfer has started all seven games this season, moving over from the left side of the line to right over the last two contests, with starter Kristian Phillips injured. Phillips has generated a 55.1 overall PFF grade with 14 pressures and 3 sacks given up this season.

• #73 – Redshirt freshman RT Rustin Young (6-4, 296) — Made his first career start last week against Indiana, splitting snaps with 6-foot-3, 294-pound redshirt freshman Rakeem Johnson. In 129 offensive snaps this year, Young has posted a 54.9 overall PFF rating and allowed 5 pressures and 1 sack. Johnson, meanwhile, has a 63.5 grade on 30 snaps.

Michigan State projected starters on defense

• #91 – Redshirt junior DT Alex VanSumeren (6-3, 295) — The former Michigan commit is third on the team with 31 tackles, including 2 for loss and 1.5 sacks. He’s added 5 pressures in pass rush, 2 of them coming in the last two games, losses to UCLA and Indiana.

• #55 – Redshirt junior DT Ben Roberts (6-2, 335) — The Oregon transfer is in his second season at Michigan State and has registered 10 tackles this year. He’s accumulated 2 pressures.

• #9 – Junior DE Jalen Thompson (6-3, 260) — Posted 15 tackles, 5.5 TFL and 2 sacks with 1 pass breakup. Thompson has 7 pressures.

• #13 – Redshirt senior EDGE Isaac Smith (6-6, 253) — The Texas Tech transfer has compiled 14 tackles and no sacks this season. He had 2.5 sacks with the Red Raiders in 2024. He has 2 pressures on 59 pass-rush snaps, and has mostly been in on run downs (79 snaps). Quindarius Dunnigan rotates in at this spot, too, and he leads the team with 10 pressures.

• #10 – Redshirt senior LB Wayne Matthews III (6-2, 230) — The Old Dominion transfer is in his second season in East Lansing. He’s second on the team with 41 tackles, including 2 for loss, and made an interception in the 23-6 season-opening win over Western Michigan.

• #5 – Junior LB Jordan Hall (6-3, 238) — Leads the team with 52 tackles, adding 3.5 TFL and 2 sacks with an interception that came in a 38-27 loss to Nebraska. He has 3 pressures as a pass rusher and has missed 5 tackles.

• #28 – Redshirt senior NB Dontavius Nash (6-2, 186) — The East Carolina transfer has compiled 11 tackles with 1 for loss and notched a 48.2 PFF coverage rating. He’s been targeted 14 times, allowing 11 receptions for 167 yards and 1 touchdown.

• #14 – Redshirt senior CB Malcolm Bell (6-2, 188) — The UConn transfer has made 20 tackles and 3 pass breakups. He has a 75.7 PFF coverage rating, giving up 9 receptions for 114 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets.

• #7 – Sixth-year senior CB Joshua Eaton (6-1, 189) — The Texas State transfer has made 15 tackles and 2 pass breakups on the year. He has a 71.5 PFF coverage grade, allowing 11 receptions for 141 yards and 1 touchdown on 15 targets.

• #43 – Senior S Malik Spencer (6-1, 191) — Went down with an injury against Indiana last week, but head coach Jonathan Smith said it’s not “long term.” He’s fourth on the team with 29 tackles, with 3 coming behind the line of scrimmage including 2 sacks. He’s added 3 pass breakups and has a 58.9 PFF coverage rating. He’s given up 12 receptions for 164 yards and 1 touchdown on 15 targets. When Spencer left the game last week, redshirt junior Aveon Grose — a 5-11, 195-pounder — played more snaps.

• #19 – Redshirt senior S Armorion Smith (6-1, 212) — Posted 25 tackles and an interception, with a 65.4 PFF coverage grade. He’s missed a whopping 13 tackles and has allowed 13 catches for 191 yards and 2 touchdowns on 16 targets. His pick came against Youngstown State.

Michigan State specialists

• #29 – Redshirt freshman K Martin Connington (6-0, 204) — After not appearing in any games in 2024, he’s made 7 of his 9 field goals so far this year. His longest is 50 yards, which was in the first game against Boston College. Both of Connington’s misses are from 50-plus yards.

• #96 – Redshirt junior P Ryan Eckley (6-2, 207) — Attempted 21 punts, averaging 51.3 yards per attempt with a 60-yard long. He’s pinned opponents inside the 20-yard line 9 times and has 13 kicks of 50-plus yards. His 4-second average hangtime ranks fifth in the Big Ten. A second-team All-Big Ten honoree in 2024, he averaged a conference-best 47.9 yards per punt.

• #13 – Redshirt junior KR Chrishon McCray (5-10, 171) — The wide receiver has returned 2 kicks for 30 yards with a 20-yard long. Wideout Alante Brown has brought back 3 for 122 yards with a 63-yard long but has been out with injury.

• #1 – Senior PR Omari Kelly (6-0, 188) — The wideout has returned 6 punts for 118 yards (19.7-yard average) with an 83-yard long. At Middle Tennessee State last season, he averaged 10.4 yards per punt return with a 61-yarder for a touchdown against Kennesaw State.

Aidan Chiles’ up-and-down season

Chiles has battled injury lately, but is coming off one of the most efficient games of his college career, going 27-of-33 passing for 243 yards and a touchdown with 8 carries for 48 yards in the 38-13 setback at Indiana.

“It’s been interesting, because Games 2 through 4 he was really good, and it looked like he was just on this ascension,” Couch said of the Michigan State signal-caller. “And then he had a couple rough outings, and progress isn’t always linear and quarterback is a tough position. He started the year at only 19 years old. It takes a minute.

“But, some of that is that the offensive line play was not very good. His protection was not very good for a little while. I think it got to him a little bit. I think it got to his confidence. He started dropping his eyes pretty quickly. 

“Last week at Indiana, he was really, really good again, and that was a big moment for him, for his career and development, because Indiana is a team that’s got guys on the defensive front that can cause you problems and get after you. So, to know you’re down four starting offensive linemen, you’ve got all these issues there and stuff but to handle your own business well enough to play the position well. They were really good.

“Obviously, they only scored 13 points, but it was better than that. Their first two drives kept Indiana off the field for like eight and seven minutes. They were the longest two drives anybody’s put on Indiana all year. They moved the ball pretty much the entire game. That was, I think, a pretty significant step forward.”

Twenty-three of Chiles’ 27 completions came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, including 11 behind the line. Getting the ball out in 2.63 seconds on average, MSU kept it simple and racked up yardage on short passes.

The good and bad of the offense

Michigan State ranks tied 77th nationally with 27.1 points per game, and it has put up a combined 26 over its last two. The Spartans are 107th in the country with 123 rushing yards per game and 88th with 213.7 passing yards on average.

“The game plan is part of it,” Couch said. “They did a really nice job last week. It was quicker passes, getting Nick Marsh involved.

“MSU has, really, one sure-fire pro in Marsh, and then they’ve got other guys. Omari Kelly is kind of a fringe pro, but he’s a really good college receiver, and McCray is a really good college receiver, can be a weapon. And then obviously Chiles.

“I thought earlier this year, that was their chance to be their equalizer. If you look at teams that have a chance to pull upsets and maybe aren’t quite there but win big games, what they have is they have dudes who it doesn’t matter who they’re playing, they get theirs. That’s what Nick Marsh is.

“They didn’t feature him very well for a little while. Some of that, he was banged up going into the Nebraska game, and it was an extremely windy day. But I didn’t think the game plan was very good; they did way too much downfield stuff, instead of the underneath slants and other things.

“Chiles can make downfield throws and stuff over the middle, but when they’re getting in a rhythm with quicker passing underneath and putting the ball in Marsh’s hands, that’s when they’re at their best.”

The Michigan State defense

The Spartans check in 121st in the FBS by allowing 32.7 points per contest, and are 52nd against the run (131.3 yards per game) and 111th versus the pass (251.4).

A big issue with the pass defense is a lack of pressure. MSU is 122nd in the country with a 27.9-percent pressure rate.

“They can’t get pressure,” Couch said. “Up front, they’ve had a couple nicks. But they got zero pressure on Indiana, and they’ve had a lot of games like that. So, quarterbacks have time.

“Defensively against the run, they’ve had moments where they’re OK, and then they’ve had other moments where somebody’s out of a gap or something. I don’t think that’s as much physical as it is missed assignments or something like that. But that’ll be a real interesting test this week, because Michigan is like 5.5 yards per carry, and they need to make [Michigan freshman quarterback] Bryce Underwood uncomfortable. But none of that will matter if they can’t get a handle on the [junior running back Justice] Haynes kid and get him to the ground and can’t get off the field at all there.

“I think they’ve got some players — now, some are beat up — in the secondary and at linebacker. But the health of those guys, by the end of last game, they were missing both safeties and their nickel, so I don’t know where they’re going to be this week with that.

“It’s interesting, and I’ve been one who always says injuries happen to every program and it’s just bad luck when it does hit you, but you look at the injury report last week relative to Indiana’s injury report, and I don’t know if guys just aren’t playing through stuff or if it’s just really bad or what’s going on. But it is not a great situation.”

The matchup

Couch broke down his view of the matchup, what Michigan State should be concerned about and what could be advantages.

“Offensively, the advantage is, potentially, the pass game,” Couch said. “It’s the ability to have the offense that’s actually pretty good. If they can protect Chiles, they’ve got weapons there that can hurt anyone. I mean, they put up 31 at USC. They’ve had moments where they’ve looked like a real offense and like they had some guys. So, that’s got to happen. Yeah, they need to be able to run the ball a little bit here and there, but those guys have got to play and have a game. And that can be an advantage if they can.

“The fear [for Michigan State] is that they just lose at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball to the point that none of this stuff matters. I don’t think Michigan’s offense is so potent that they’re likely to run away from them, but if you’re Michigan State, the thing you really want to avoid is just being stuck playing from behind the whole game, and figuring out a way to get out front and keep pace. But I think the fear is, if you’re Michigan State, you lose at the line of scrimmage to the point that it’s just too much.”

Couch’s final score prediction

“I think Michigan State will be able to move the ball some,” Couch began. “And whether they can truly keep pace will come down to, can you get in the end zone four times and make some field goals, rather than a couple times and a couple field goals?
Prediction: Michigan 31, Michigan State 20