Previewing Michigan vs. Ohio State with a Buckeyes insider

By Clayton Sayfie

TheWolverine.com caught up with Ohio State writer Spencer Holbrook of Lettermen Row ahead of Saturday’s matchup between the Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines football. Holbrook broke down Ohio State and offered a final score prediction. We begin with the projected starting lineup for the Buckeyes.

Ohio State projected starters on offense

• #10 – Sophomore QB Julian Sayin (6-1, 208) — The Carlsbad, Calif., native ranks first in the Big Ten with a 79.4-percent completion rate (239-of-301) and 27 touchdown passes, and second with 2,832 passing yards. He’s thrown just 4 interceptions, the fewest among conference signal-callers that have started all of their team’s games. Sayin is averaging 10.4 yards per attempt on play-action passes, with 12 touchdowns and 1 pick, and he’s connected on 64.7 percent of his throws of 20-plus air yards (22-of-34 for 864 yards and 11 touchdowns with no interceptions). Not much of a runner, Sayin has scrambled 10 times for 45 yards and has minus-6 yards on designed rushes.

• #25 – Freshman RB Bo Jackson (6-0, 217) — The No. 160 overall recruit in the 2025 class per On3, Jackson has rushed for 835 yards and 5 touchdowns on 129 carries (6.5 yards per attempt). He’s registering a whopping 4.5 yards after contact per rush, has forced 27 missed tackles and has 11 runs of 15-plus yards. He’s picked up 42 first downs on the ground, and has added 13 catches for 138 yards and a score. The Buckeyes also rotate in two other backs — sophomore James Peoples (5-10, 206) and senior CJ Donaldson (6-2, 232) — that each have 286-plus rushing yards.

• #17 – Junior WR Carnell Tate (6-3, 195) — Has hauled in 39 catches for 711 yards and 7 touchdowns, ranking second on the team in all three categories despite missing the last two games with a lower-body injury. His average depth of target is 14 yards, and he’s come down with a team-high 12 contested catches. The quarterback has an 84.8-percent completion rate when throwing his way.

• #4 – Sophomore WR Jeremiah Smith (6-3, 223) — Missed last week’s game against Rutgers with an injury but said this week that he should be healthy enough to play against Michigan. The 2024 first-team All-American and Big Ten Wide Receiver of the Year is top three in the conference in catches (69) and receiving yards (902), and he stands tied atop the league with 10 touchdown grabs. His average depth of target is 10.5 yards down the field, and he’s hauled in 20 receptions on passes between 10-19 air yards and 6 on throws of 20-plus.

• #1 – Junior WR Brandon Inniss (6-0, 199) — Primarily playing in the slot, Inniss has made 29 catches for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns. His average depth of target is 4.9 yards, and he’s averaging that same amount after the catch.

• #86 – Junior TE Max Klare (6-5, 243) — The Purdue transfer has recorded 38 catches for 400 yards and 2 touchdowns while grading out at 72.8 in run blocking on PFF. Last season with the Boilermakers, Klare caught 51 passes for 685 yards and 4 scores, and he was tabbed as a third-team All-Big Ten selection.

• #67 – Junior LT Austin Siereveld (6-5, 325) — Has started 17 career games. He’s posted an 84.0 overall PFF grade with marks above 79 in both pass protection (79.4) and run blocking (81.4). He’s given up 9 pressures and no sacks on 340 pass-blocking snaps.

• #51 – Junior LG Luke Montgomery (6-5, 312) — Has opened 13 games in his career. He’s generated a 74.8 overall PFF rating and given up 8 pressures and no sacks this year.

• #75 – Senior C Carson Hinzman (6-5, 300) — Has started 32 career outings. He’s recorded a 70.9 overall PFF grade with a team-worst 16 pressures and a sack given up.

• #77 – Senior RG Tegra Tshabola (6-6, 322) — The second-year starter has opened 27 career games. He has a 56.7 overall PFF rating with 11 pressures and no sacks allowed this season.

• #70 – Junior RT Phillip Daniels (6-5, 315) — The Minnesota transfer had opened four career games for the Golden Gophers before transferring to Ohio State ahead of the 2025 campaign. He has started the first 11 contests of this year, posting a 66.6 overall PFF grade while giving up 13 pressures and 2 sacks.

Ohio State projected starters on defense

• #98 – Junior DT Kayden McDonald (6-3, 326) — Has registered 47 tackles, including 8 for loss and 3 sacks, with 2 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery this season. He’s added 6 pressures as a pass rusher.

• #95 – Graduate DT Tywone Malone Jr. (6-4, 309) — The Ole Miss transfer is in his third season at Ohio State. This year, he’s recorded 20 tackles, 2 pass breakups and 6 pressures.

• #92 – Senior DE Caden Curry (6-3, 260) — Stands tied for third on the team with 49 tackles and leads the squad with 13.5 TFL and 9 sacks, adding 1 pass breakup. He ranks tied for seventh among Big Ten edge rushers with 36 pressures and fourth with an elite 88.1 PFF pass-rush grade.

• #97 – Senior DE Kenyatta Jackson Jr. (6-6, 265) — Has compiled 21 tackles, 8 TFL and 4.5 sacks along with 2 pass breakups this year. He’s also contributed 28 pressures.

• #0 – Senior LB Sonny Styles (6-5, 243) — The former safety is in his second season as a middle linebacker, and he leads the team with 62 tackles, adding 4 for loss with a half-sack. He’s also broken up 3 passes and made 1 interception. He has an 88.5 PFF coverage rating, which ranks first among Big Ten linebackers (minimum 10 snaps).

• #8 – Junior LB Arvell Reese (6-4, 243) — The No. 2 overall player on ESPN.com’s 2026 NFL Draft big board, the Cleveland native has taken 235 of his snaps on the line of scrimmage at edge rusher and 228 in the box as a linebacker, with the Buckeyes moving him around the defensive formation. He’s accumulated 59 tackles, including 10 for loss with 6 sacks, and 2 pass breakups. He’s registered 23 pressures on 97 pass-rush snaps and has also dropped in coverage 188 times.

• #3 – Graduate NB Lorenzo Styles Jr. (6-1, 195) — The older brother of Sonny, Lorenzo is a Notre Dame transfer in his third season with the Buckeyes and as a defensive back after transitioning from wide receiver. Styles left last week’s game against Rutgers early with a shoulder injury, and while head coach Ryan Day didn’t have much of an update during his Tuesday press conference, he did say Styles was going to practice that day. Styles has made 25 tackles with 1.5 for loss and 2 pass breakups this season. He has a 68.5 PFF coverage rating and has allowed 17 catches for 161 yards and 1 touchdown on 24 targets.

• #7 – Junior CB Jermaine Mathews Jr. (5-11, 190) — Has tallied 18 tackles, 1.5 stops for loss, 1 sack, 3 pass breakups and 2 interceptions. He’s generated a 67.5 PFF coverage rating with 19 catches for 161 yards and 1 touchdown given up on 33 targets.

• #1 – Senior CB Davison Igbinosun (6-2, 195) — The Ole Miss transfer is in his third season at Ohio State. Igbinosun has recorded 33 tackles and 6 pass breakups on the year, and he has an 80.1 PFF coverage grade with 15 catches for 161 yards and no touchdowns allowed on 37 targets. He’s committed only 3 penalties this season after having 16 last year.

• #2 – Junior S Caleb Downs (6-0, 205) — The Alabama transfer in his second season at Ohio State has totaled 49 tackles with 5 for loss and 1 sack along with 2 interceptions this year. He was named a unanimous All-American in 2024, when he recorded 82 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 8 pass breakups and 2 picks in 16 games. This year, Downs has an 88.5 PFF coverage rating, ranking third in the Big Ten among those with 200-plus such snaps, and he has given up 22 catches for 134 yards and no touchdowns on 32 targets. Downs is the No. 6 NFL Draft prospect on ESPN’s big board.

• #18 – Sophomore S Jaylen McClain (6-0, 201) — Has posted 39 tackles and 3 pass breakups on the year. He’s graded out at 79.4 in coverage on PFF, allowing 13 grabs for 64 yards and no scores on 22 targets.

Ohio State specialists

• #38 – Senior K Jayden Fielding (6-2, 175) — Has made 13 of his 15 field goal attempts this season, with a 49-yard long (also a career long). One of his 2 misses came from 50-plus yards, and the other was between 30-39 yards. Fielding went 13-of-17 on field goals last season, with 2 of those misses coming in a 1-for-3 day in a 13-10 loss to Michigan. Fielding also handles kickoff duties and has booted 51 touchbacks on 74 attempts.

• #42 – Junior P Joe McGuire (6-2, 210) — The Melbourne, Australia, native is averaging 42 yards per attempt with a 55-yard long. He’s pinned opponents inside the 20-yard line 7 times and has 3 kicks of 50-plus yards. His 3.79-second average hangtime ranks tied for 14th in the Big Ten.

• #1 – Junior KR/PR Brandon Inniss (6-0, 199) — The wide receiver has returned 4 kicks for 43 yards with a 37-yard long. It’s worth noting that Lorenzo Styles has 1 return, too, for a 100-yard touchdown against UCLA. On punts, Inniss has returned 13 for 148 yards (11.4-yard average) with a 32-yard long.

Julian Sayin looking for a Heisman moment

Sayin currently holds the third-best odds to win the Heisman Trophy, awarded to the nation’s most outstanding player, at +400 on BetMGM, behind only Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza (-105) and Notre Dame running back Jeremiyan Love (+375).

Holbrook broke down what has made this such a special season for the Ohio State signal-caller.

“It’s been marked by incredible efficiency,” Holbrook said. “He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the country when he has time to throw, picking apart defenses with nearly 80-percent accuracy. But it’s when he’s blitzed that actually is more impressive, completing 80 percent of his throws when a defense brings a blitz. That’s what has me concerned for the Michigan defense in this game, because Sayin can sling it when he’s under pressure, unlike past Ohio State quarterbacks.

“Of course, it has been aided by the best receiver in the country, Jeremiah Smith, alongside Carnell Tate. I fully expect Smith to play. We’ll see about Tate.

“But nothing he has done so far will matter without this game. Get Ohio State back to beating Michigan, and he’s a legend. Lose and he’s just the latest in another line of great QBs who can’t beat the rival.”

Ohio State offense

Ohio State ranks 11th in the country and third in the Big Ten in scoring behind Indiana and Oregon, with 37.9 points per game. The Buckeyes are balanced but have been much more efficient through the air (9.4 yards per pass; tied for fifth nationally) than on the ground (5 yards per rush; 33rd).

“The obvious strength is the passing game, which has been the most efficient of the Ryan Day era,” Holbrook said. “I’m not sure if it’s the best overall, but it’s certainly more efficient than any group Day has had. And over time, it has led to a better rushing output from Bo Jackson and Isaiah West as the potent pair of freshman backs behind an offensive line that seems to be getting better with each game. 

“I still have questions about the right side of the offensive line when it comes to run blocking, as Tegra Tshabola rotates with Josh Padilla and Michigan native Gabe VanSickle at right guard while Phillip Daniels mans the right tackle spot. Don’t be surprised if the Buckeyes test the run game on the left side first on Saturday.

“[Michigan defensive coordinator] Wink Martindale will have a really good game plan, that much we know. How Ohio State chooses to attack it will be unlike what we’ve seen this season, in my eyes.”

Ohio State defense

Ohio State ranks first in the FBS in scoring (7.6 points per game), total (206.6 yards per game) and passing (126.6 yards per game) defense and second in rushing (80 yards per game).

The Buckeyes’ pass rush is led by their outstanding edge rushers, and that includes a versatile piece in Reese. They check in fifth nationally with a 39.5-percent pressure rate and lead the nation with sacks on 33.5 percent of dropbacks (3.4 per game), according to Sports Info Solutions.

“The strength is the communication,” Holbrook said. “This defense, unlike the previous three under [former coordinator] Jim Knowles, is on the same page at nearly every step. That’s been what makes them so good through 11 games.

“There’s something very specific that we’ve noticed from this Ohio State defense, which hasn’t shown a single big weakness yet this season. It’s the weak seam in Cover 3, when the safety shades to one side and causes an opening down the field on the other seam. Too specific? Maybe, but after watching Underwood hit that throw against Maryland, I think it’s something to bring up. 

“Honorable mention: The Buckeyes’ run defense is elite — for the opponents it has faced. What does it have against the best rushing attack on the schedule? My mind says they’ll be good, but it’s something to at least consider if you’re concocting a path for a Wolverines win.”

The key to a Buckeye victory

Ohio State has been a top-two team in the College Football Playoff rankings entering each of the last four meetings with Michigan, but the Wolverines have come out the valiant victor each occasion. Holbrook discussed the biggest keys for Ohio State in what should be a tough environment this weekend.

“It starts with stopping the run, because if Ohio State puts Michigan in third-and-long situations, that is a huge win for the Buckeyes,” he said. “The Buckeyes have been so good at stopping the run all season, allowing more than 100 yards just once — in the opener against Texas — so that’s a stat to watch as an indicator. If the Buckeyes put Bryce Underwood in obvious passing situations, can use their elite secondary with disguised coverages that he’s never seen before and get Arvell Reese moving off the edge, that’s the recipe to finally beat the Wolverines again.”

Holbrook’s final score prediction

“With the hope that this doesn’t sound cocky to Michigan fans, because that’s not my intent, I find it incredibly difficult to see Michigan scoring more than 20 on this Ohio State defense. Matt Patricia has been so good at dialing up defensive systems for each game, and he’ll have a plan cooked up for the Wolverines. 

“I’ve been wrong on every pick in this series during the losing streak, so maybe it’s good for The Wolverine that I’m going back to the well. Fool me five times, well …”
Prediction: Ohio State 34, Michigan 20