What ESPN's FPI says about Michigan football: Projected record, strength of schedule, Big Ten title odds, more
Michigan Wolverines football had a two-percent chance to win the Big Ten last season, per ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The Maize and Blue noticed, and ‘two-percent’ became a rallying cry for the team, who we could hear screaming and yelling about it in the locker room after they beat Iowa in the Big Ten championship game.
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ESPN has released its updated FPI ahead of the 2022 campaign, and Michigan stands much higher than a year ago. Here’s a look at what the predictive measure of performance of teams across the course of a season says about Michigan.
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Strength of schedule
FPI pegs Michigan’s 2022 schedule as the 31st-most challenging in the country and eighth-toughest in the Big Ten. The Wolverines are one of seven FBS teams with eight home games. They do have two marquee road games — at Iowa and Ohio State — and key home tilts versus Nebraska, Michigan State and Penn State.
Michigan’s rank, projected record
The metric has Michigan finishing No. 7 in the nation, behind Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Notre Dame and Texas, in that order. Other Big Ten teams to appear in the top 25 are Penn State (No. 12), Michigan State (No. 16) and Wisconsin (No. 21).
The FPI predicts Michigan’s record at 9.5 wins and 2.6 losses. That means the metric is torn on whether the Wolverines will go 10-2 or 9-3. It is very confident, though, that the Wolverines will win at least six games and become bowl eligible, giving them a 99.8-percent chance to do so. They handed out 1.2-percent odds to win all 12 regular-season games.
Chance to win the Big Ten
As mentioned, FPI gave Michigan a much better chance to win the Big Ten this season than it did a year ago. The number is up to 7.2 percent this time around, with a 9.9-percent chance to repeat as Big Ten East champions. Both of those marks stand as the second-best behind Ohio State.
College Football Playoff odds
Michigan will likely have to win the Big Ten to make the four-team College Football Playoff. And even then, we’ve seen the Big Ten champ left out of the national championship hunt. Even so, the Wolverines’ playoff odds are higher than their Big Ten title hopes, per FPI, at 14.8 percent.
FPI gives Michigan a 1.3-percent chance to win the national title, and 4.2-percent odds to make the national title game.
