Previewing No. 8 NC State wrestling vs. No. 11 North Carolina in ACC Friday night dual

After a pair of ACC duals that came down to the final bout, No. 8 NC State now faces the challenge of back-to-back home duals against two of the three other conference foes that rank as high as NC State. First up, No. 11 North Carolina visits Reynolds Coliseum this Friday night at 7 p.m.

For the seventh time over the last nine seasons, both squads come into the dual ranked in the top 25. This year, the two teams combine for their highest rankings in the match-up since 2020, when No. 3 NC State used a winner-take-all decision at heavyweight to defeat No. 8 UNC in Reynolds, 19-14.

NC State enters with a school record 12-match winning streak against UNC. The last time the Tar Heels came away with the win was Pat Popolizio’s first season in 2013 (30-6), his only loss to UNC.

During the Pack’s 12-match winning streak, two weight classes have been key to NC State victories. In the dual between the two teams, the Pack has won 10 of the 12 matches at 125 pounds, as the two losses were both by back-ups. At heavyweight, NC State has claimed victory 11 of the last 12 years, including six years in a row and three years in a row going for bonus.

The Pack has also won the last six duals between the teams in Raleigh (Reynolds was closed for a year so the 2016 dual took place at the NC State Fairgrounds). UNC’s last road win in the series came in 2012.

This is a new-look UNC squad, as only two starters return from last year. The Tar Heels picked up portal additions at 125 and 165 pounds, and six freshmen are currently in the lineup.

Here is a look at each of the potential 10 matchups.

125: No. 5 Vince Robinson vs. No. 15 Gr. Kysen Terukina (10-1)

The Hawaii native Terukina transferred to UNC for his final season from Iowa State. With the Cyclones, he was a three-time NCAA Qualifier. He started the season 10-0, and his lone loss was his last bout on Jan. 4 against No. 28 Mack Mauger of Missouri (7-2). He did not wrestle last weekend vs. UVA. Robinson dropped his second bout of the year last week at Stanford, 4-1 in extra time. Robinson needs to come out aggressive, as his only collegiate losses have come on late takedowns in the third or OT.

133: Zach Redding vs. No. 18 Gr. Ethan Oakley (10-4)

It is time to get rid of the ‘OR’ at 133 pounds, and determine the Pack’s starter. No inside knowledge on which was the coaches are leaning, but Redding has the slightly better resume on the season and better chance to secure an NCAA bid. If he gets the nod in a second straight ACC dual, this will be a battle of veteran guys both in their final seasons. Oakley was an App State transfer two years ago, three-time NCAA Qualifier overall. He enters on a five-match winning streak including an impressive 8-1 decision over UVA’s Marlon Yarbrough last week. The wrench in that theory of Redding getting the start is Troy Hohman defeated Oakley earlier this year at the Hokie Invite, 5-4 in extra time.

141: No. 12 Ryan Jack vs. No. 17 R-Fr. Luke Simcox (10-4)

This will be Jack’s fourth time in the NC State-UNC dual, he is 2-1 in the those match-ups, which were all top-10 battles previously. Simcox was the No. 19 overall recruit in his class, and redshirted last season. All four of his losses have been to ranked foes, three in the top-10. He earned a title at the Soldier Invite and followed it up with an 8-3 win over UVA’s Gable Porter, who defeated Jack two weeks ago. Simcox has won five straight matches. Even though Jack has the experience advantage and better credentials, Simcox will challenge him and this seems to be a pivotal match as a toss-up.

149: No. 5 Koy Buesgens vs. Fr. Nate Askew (7-6)

2025 NCAA Qualifier Jayden Scott was lost for the season earlier this year, in stepped true freshman Nate Askew. He has started the last five duals for UNC, suffering an OT loss against UVA last weekend. He has scored more than five points in a match only once this year, but has only given up bonus points once. Buesgens will be his first ranked opponent. Buesgens needs to push the pace and secure bonus points for the second straight weekend.

157: Brogan Tucker vs. No. 28 R-Fr. Laird Root (12-6)

Root is coming off an explosive 15-14 win over No. 30 Colton Washleski of UVA, who majored Tucker. Root has faced three straight ranked foes entering this match, winning two. His breakout performance might have been a loss, but he gave then-No. 1 Ty Waters of West Virginia fits back in mid-December (lost 6-3). Tucker has been thrown into the fire, and suffered a pair of bonus point losses in his first year. UNC will hope for bonus here.

165: No. 15 Will Denny vs. No. 10 Gr. Bryce Hepner (11-1)

The rookie vs. the vet, this could be the match of the night and is the ultimate toss-up. Hepner transferred to UNC for his final season, and this is the first season in the national rankings. He is on a seven-match winning streak, claiming the title at the Soldier Salute recently. His lone loss was to No. 10 LJ Araujo of Nebraska, followed by a win over No. 8 Ryder Downey of Northern Iowa, 7-4. Denny himself is on a nine-match winning streak, and has started 2-0 in ACC action. He is 3-2 vs. ranked foes this year.

174: No. 5 Matty Singleton vs. R-Fr. Collin Carrigan (11-7)

UNC has used five different starters in duals at 174 pounds this season. Three-time NCAA Qualifier Josh Ogunsanya was lost very early in the season. Carrigan has got the starting nod each of the last three duals, but is 0-4 against ranked foes this year, giving up three bonus point defeats in those bouts. This is a must-win for NC State, and Singleton has to look for bonus.

184: Don Cates vs. No. 13 R-Fr. Jake Dailey (13-2)

Dailey has been one of the most consistent wrestlers for UNC, and has become the favorite to win the ACC title at a wide-open weight class. After losing his second match of the year, he reeled off 12 straight wins before falling to No. 2 Aeoden Sinclair of Missouri in the final of the Soldier Salute. Bonus points could come into play here, Cates has to get a takedown or two and keep it close into the third.

197: No. 26 Patrick Brophy vs. No. 33 R-Fr. Robert Platt (12-6)

Platt has flirted with being ranked all year, in and out of the rankings. He has only faced two ranked foes, going 1-1 with a win over No. 22 Rune Lawrence of West Virginia. He is coming off of a 20-4 tech fall win over UVA’s Steven Burrell, who defeated Brophy two weeks ago. Again, Brophy needs to improve his NCAA resume and a win here would be a quality win. Platt can put up points, he has reached double digits seven times.

285: No. 2 Isaac Trumble vs. No. 28 R-So. Nolan Neves (4-3)

Neves technically holds a win over Trumble, last year when Trumble medically forfeited out of the ACC Championship. In the dual last year, Neves took down Trumble twice in the first period before Trumble second a late, first-period fall. Neves has been limited to just seven match, and is 0-3 against ranked foes this year. Trumble’s bonus points in the first two ACC duals have been huge, and more bonus might be needed here for a Pack win.

Which team is likely to win?

NC State is favored at: 125, 149, 174, 285. The Pack could get bonus from at least two weights (149, 174, and 285 are the possibilities). You can argue 125 could be moved to a toss-up.

UNC is favored at: 133, 157, 184. UNC could get bonus at both 157 and 184.

Toss-up: 141, 165, 197. If the dual goes according to script with the above mentioned seven weights, these are the three that could determine the dual.

While this is the best UNC team in a long time, the Pack has a really big edge for bonus at three weights by three of its four highest ranked wrestlers. But, if UNC can win the toss-ups, the dual could go in a totally different direction where Pack bonuses might not matter. For the third straight week, Pack fans might have to sweat out the final match to see who comes out on top.