The Wolfpacker ACC bowl projections

NC State football finished the regular season with an 8-4 overall record, including a 4-4 mark in the ACC. What’s next is figuring out where the Wolfpack will go bowling. The Wolfpacker will update on Wednesday the rundown of bowl projections across the web after Tuesday’s release of the College Football Playoff (CFP) committee poll, but here’s some logical deducing of how the scenarios play out with our picks included.

For a look at where bowl projections were last week, click here.

Orange and Cheez-It Bowl picks

Orange Bowl:

This is an easy one to figure out. The winner of North Carolina-Clemson on Saturday evening will represent the ACC in the Orange Bowl. The opponent offers intrigue. If the team is a Big Ten representative, then that opens up a bowl slot for the ACC in the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa on Jan. 2.

Barring a dramatic upset loss to Purdue in the Big Ten title game, Michigan seems locked into the College Football Playoffs. That would send Ohio State, in all likelihood, to the Rose Bowl. That could change if there are upsets this weekend, upending the expected top four of Georgia, Michigan, TCU and Southern Cal for the CFP.

Penn State also seems like a good bet to get into a New Year’s Six bowl, of which the Orange is a member. Is there a chance they end up in the Orange Bowl?

The Sugar Bowl is probably taking Alabama against the best available Big 12 team if TCU makes the playoff, which would be Kansas State. The Rose Bowl is going to pair Ohio State with a Pac-12 team, likely being Washington.

That leaves Orange or Cotton for Penn State. The Cotton Bowl will also take the top Group of Five team, which is currently shaping up at Tulane. The bet here is the Orange Bowl would much rather have Tennessee, the other likely New Year’s Six team, and its traveling armada, but this bears watching.

Cheez-It Bowl:

If old rules still apply, then if Clemson wins the ACC title, this will have to be either one of Florida State, North Carolina, Notre Dame or Pittsburgh, due to how conference standings played out.

The ACC formerly had a rule that no team can jump someone in the bowl pecking order that has two more conference wins, and the Cheez-It Bowl is next in the pecking order for the ACC. Since UNC went 6-2 in the ACC, only teams with 5-3 marks in the conference could go here, or Notre Dame since the Irish went 8-4 and is within one game of North Carolina’s 9-3 mark.

Of that group, FSU and Notre Dame stand out the most. The question is whether Orlando, which will have the Seminoles playing in Orlando to open the 2023 season, would prefer to have Notre Dame for that reason?

If North Carolina wins, then unless there is a change of rules Clemson seems locked in, since no one, including Notre Dame, would be within two games of the Tigers.

Our projections throughout the bowl picks however are based on our guess that Clemson beats North Carolina Saturday.

The Wolfpacker’s projections:

Orange: Clemson (vs. Tennessee)

Cheez-It: Notre Dame

Tier I bowl projections

The next tier of ACC bowl tie-ins are believed to be Duke’s Mayo in Charlotte, Pinstripe in New York, Holiday in San Diego, Gator in Jacksonville and Sun in El Paso. The ACC itself no longer designates tiers for bowls, but there was an understanding that they informally remain.

If North Carolina loses the ACC title game and does not go to the Cheez-It Bowl, the Heels are locked into one of these.

Otherwise, all bowl-qualified teams in the conference are eligible. The only potential rule is that Wake Forest cannot be picked over UNC, Florida State, Duke and Pittsburgh. The Deacons went 3-5 in the ACC, while all three of those squads went 5-3 or better.

Duke’s Mayo: Logic would seem to suggest this is a good bet for NC State football. The last time the Wolfpack played in Charlotte for the bowl was 2015. North Carolina was in the event last season. Plus Wake Forest was there in 2020 and 2017.

Duke may also be in play, having not played in the bowl since 2012.

The Duke’s Mayo clearly has an affinity for selecting local ACC teams. Only twice in the 20-year history of the bowl has the selected ACC team not been from the states of North Carolina, South Carolina or Virginia.

The opponent is, presuming Michigan is in the CFP, the fourth option after that from the Big Ten. Ohio State (Rose Bowl) and Penn State (New Year’s Six) would be off the board. The Citrus Bowl and ReliaQuest Bowl get the next two picks to choose from between the likes of Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Purdue and Wisconsin. The Duke’s Mayo would choose first from what’s left of that group, but with Wisconsin playing two years ago they seem unlikely.

Our guess is Duke’s Mayo would love a potential NC State-Maryland matchup.

Pinstripe: With over 16,000 alumni in the New York region, Duke could be in play for the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. The Blue Devils played Indiana there in 2015 the day after Christmas and drew a crowd of 37,218, comparable to all but Notre Dame’s appearance in 2013 and Penn State-Boston College in 2014.

However, Syracuse has not been there since 2012 and could also be appealing. Pittsburgh may have the strongest brand name available. This is not likely a spot for Wake Forest (appeared in 2019).

Gator: NC State will almost certainly not be going here after making appearances in 2018 and 2020. Instead, the bet is whomever is left between Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame in the Orange/Cheez-It Bowl fallout could be headed here, although as noted above the Tigers may not be able to fall below the Cheez-It Bowl.

Sun: TV draw is important for this game. Pittsburgh’s recent success may be appealing, but the Panthers played in this game relatively recently in 2018. North Carolina may also be a strong option here.

Holiday Bowl: This is another game where UNC would probably be appealing. Their best bets if they fall to this tier would likely be either El Paso or here. NC State seems unlikely since it was invited last year. One could see the bowl itching to pair the Heels with someone like Oregon, who is likely available.

The Wolfpacker’s projections:

Duke’s Mayo: NC State

Pinstripe: Syracuse

Gator: Florida State

Sun: Pittsburgh

Holiday: North Carolina

Other Bowl Picks

Although no formal tiers are announced by the ACC, the belief is that after those five bowls above, the next two in the pecking order are Military and Fenway, with options available to ensure that the last remaining bowl-eligible team from the conference finds a spot. That looks likely to be the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa.

Fenway: Conventional wisdom has been Syracuse here, but the Orange is asking not to play because the early date (Dec. 17) interferes with its exam schedule. The same could be true for Duke, which has a similar academic calendar.

Wake Forest’s exams will be completed Dec. 10, and this spot may make sense for the Demon Deacons.

Military: Duke, NC State and Louisville have never participated in Annapolis. That may appeal to the bowl officials. If the Wolfpack is not in Charlotte, this bowl may make the next-most sense.

The American Athletic Conference will likely be the other representative, and an attractive opponent like Central Florida or Cincinnati is possible. A matchup with Louisville could be really appealing for the bowl, especially with the Bearcats.

Gasparilla: Whoever is left between the Duke, Louisville, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Wake Forest will likely slot here.

The Wolfpacker’s projection:

Fenway: Wake Forest

Military: Louisville

Gasparilla: Duke