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Where NC State baseball stands in NCAA Tournament projections before UNC series

image_6483441 (3)by:Noah Fleischman•05/08/25•

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Matt Heavner
NC State's Matt Heavner (6) celebrates with his teammates after scoring a run during Game 3 of the Super NCAA Regional against Georgia at Foley Field on Monday, June 10, 2024 in Athens, Ga. NC State won 8-5. © Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK

After an 0-3 week featuring a midweek loss to UNCW and a pair of defeats at Miami, NC State baseball’s NCAA Tournament hosting chances took a blow. The Pack fell to No. 36 in the RPI, a double-digit fall from its ever-climbing spot inside the top-25. 

While that trio of losses were costly, the Wolfpack found a way to rebound with an emphatic 14-4 win at UNCW this past Tuesday. The Pack has moved to No. 29 in the RPI and has a key opportunity to bolster its resume with a three-game series at RPI No. 9 UNC, beginning Thursday night in Chapel Hill.

Here’s a look at where NC State stands in the current NCAA Tournament projections.

Where does NC State project?

Baseball America slotted the Wolfpack the 2-seed in the Morgantown Regional, hosted by No. 14 national seed West Virginia. NC State would face Texas A&M in the opening game, while Wright State would be in the field as well. The winner of that weekend would advance to play the winner of the Tallahassee Regional, hosted by No. 3 Florida State.

D1Baseball, meanwhile, projected NC State as a 2-seed in the Conway Regional, hosted by No. 11 national seed Coastal Carolina. The Pack would face Florida, who eliminated the squad in Omaha last year, in the first game. High Point rounds out the group, which would be set to face the winner of the Auburn Regional. 

Rounding out the projections is On3’s Jonathan Wagner, who put the Wolfpack as the 2-seed in Conway as well. He had NC State playing Texas A&M in its opening game with High Point as the final team in the field. The winner of the series would see the winner of the Clemson Regional. 

NCAA Tournament Resume

As mentioned earlier, NC State’s RPI took a hit but it has climbed back into the top-30. With six games left on the schedule, the Wolfpack will benefit from as many wins as possible between three at RPI No. 9 UNC and three against RPI No. 49 Stanford next week.

NC State is 8-8 against Q1 teams, while it’s 6-0 in Q2, 7-4 in Q3 and 10-3 in Q4. 

NC State has three Quad 1 opportunities left to boost its resume during the regular season, all this weekend at UNC. Taking the series from the Tar Heels could be enough to vault the Wolfpack back into a top-16 seed in the NCAA Tournament field to host the opening weekend.

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