Today's Take: They Are What The Metrics Say They Are

Every weekday, Inside Carolina senior reporter Greg Barnes weighs in with his thoughts on the latest in Tar Heel sports. Barnes has been the preeminent reporter and expert analyst on UNC athletics for two decades. Watch his full daily thoughts above.

Today’s Take from Greg Barnes:
“Coming into the Syracuse game, Carolina had already played 21 games, so we knew they’re about the 25th best team in the country, according to the metrics. So can they play better than that baseline over the final 10 games regular season and into the ACC tournament, heading up to the Selection Sunday. And for 30 minutes against Syracuse, the answer was yes, because the metrics suggested that Carolina should beat Syracuse by 10 points at home and Carolina was up by 32 points, which is far better than what the metrics suggested. 

“And then one of these lapses that we just see so many times, it’s kind of been the staple of this team, this program, over the last two years – they can’t put a full 40 minutes together. So what happens? Syracuse goes on this incredible 37-11 run, incredible in the sense that it’s improbable and head-scratching and surprising and laughable and all those adjectives. And Carolina wins by 10 points.

“So you have another 40-minute game of 70-some possessions in which Carolina did exactly what the metrics said they would do based on the previous 21 games. So now we have 22 games of data saying this is what North Carolina is. That’s the importance of the metrics. And we have a foundation in place of what Carolina is. Saturday is another opportunity for Carolina show they are better than those previous 22 games. But they haven’t done it yet and Monday is a good example.”