UNC-N.C. State Preview: Tar Heels Face Wolfpack in Season's Lone Rivalry Showdown

No. 16 North Carolina (20-5, 8-4 ACC) vs. N.C. State (18-8, 9-4 ACC)
Raleigh, N.C. — Lenovo Center
Tuesday, Feb. 16 — 7 p.m.
ESPN (Kevin Brown, Corey Alexander)

Quotables 
“(Veesaar) continues to feel better and get better… We’ve got practice this afternoon, and we’ll just, again, re-evaluate and see how he’s doing and then move forward from there” — Hubert Davis during Monday’s ACC availability

“We’re not the biggest bunch, and (UNC), they’re massive on the front line, which has been a major issue for us this season.” — Will Wade during Monday’s ACC availability

Pregame Notes

High and Stevenson Step Up for Short-Handed Tar Heels: With Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar ruled out, North Carolina didn’t miss a beat against Pittsburgh, winning 79-65 on Saturday afternoon at the Smith Center. 

Zayden High stepped in for Veesaar — who was a late scratch due to flu-like symptoms — and provided 15 points and seven rebounds in his first career start for UNC. Alongside him in the frontcourt, Jarin Stevenson started at the four in place of Wilson and supplied 19 points, one of four Tar Heel starters who finished in double figures. 

North Carolina sits in sixth place in the ACC standings, half a game back from N.C. State and a full game behind Miami, which holds the last double-bye spot for the ACC Tournament with six games remaining. The Tar Heels didn’t move in the key metrics, staying put at No. 28 in KenPom and No. 25 in the NET Rankings. 

Looking at the Wolfpack: After failing to make the ACC tournament with a 5-15 record in league play last season, N.C. State is in the hunt for its first double buy in the conference tournament since 2015. However, the Wolfpack enter Tuesday’s matchup on a two-game skid that snapped a previous six-game ACC win streak. 

N.C. State struggled in its marquee non-conference matchups, losing all four Quad 1 games to Seton Hall (85-74), Texas (102-97), No. 20 Auburn (83-73) and No. 19 Kansas (77-76 in overtime). In ACC play, however, the Wolfpack have been able to collect some Q1 wins against No. 18 Clemson (80-76 in overtime), at Wake Forest (96-78) and on the road against SMU (84-83), but lost to No. 21 Virginia (76-61) and were recently blown out by No. 24 Louisville, 118-77 — the second-most points N.C. State has allowed in program history. 

The Wolfpack have also lost a Quad 4 game this season — a 78-74 home loss to Georgia Tech in mid January — that further dampens their resume. Still, Bracket Matrix currently projects N.C. State to be a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

Will Wade is in his first season leading the program after Kevin Keatts was fired following a 12-19 record last season. The 43-year old coach led McNeese State to back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances in 2024 and 2025, following a two-year show-cause order from the NCAA for recruiting violations while at LSU from 2017-2022. 

Wade is N.C. State’s fifth coach this century, and has the opportunity to record the most wins as a first-year Wolfpack head coach since Everett Case (26-5) during the 1946-47 season. 

Excellent 3-Point Shooting at the Cost of Interior Defense: Scoring 85 points per game this season, N.C. State moves the ball well and can shoot opponents out of the building on any given night. The Wolfpack lead the ACC in 3-point percentage and are sixth best in the nation at a 39.4 percent rate, averaging over 10 made threes a night. 

Paul McNeil Jr. leads the conference in shooting from beyond the arc at a 43.5 percent clip and is one of four N.C. State players that shoot better than 40 percent from three — along with Darion Williams (40.3%), Quadir Copeland (42.3%) and Tre Holloman (40.6%). Add Ven Allen Lubin’s league-leading 68.4 percent field-goal percentage, and all five Wolfpack starters average double-figure scoring, accounting for three-quarters of N.C. State’s offensive production. 

The Wolfpack are 11-1 in games where they shoot over 40 percent from three and 7-7 in games when they’re below that mark. For a UNC team that has struggled at times to guard the perimeter, Tuesday night will be a true litmus test to determine if its 3-point defense has improved from earlier in ACC play. 

On the defensive end, N.C. State has glaring weaknesses inside, with consistent struggles guarding the paint and on the boards. The Wolfpack have conceded double-digit offensive rebounds nine times this season, including 21 against Pittsburgh and 17 on Saturday against Miami. In games where the opposing team has recorded over 25 defensive rebounds, N.C. State is 0-6. 

With 6-foot-9 Lubin playing center for the Wolfpack, UNC fans are well aware of his struggles in defending the pick-and-roll and lob threats toward the basket. During its recent six-game ACC win streak, N.C. State held opposing offenses to 47.2 percent shooting from inside the arc. But in losses this season, the Wolfpack have been dominated in the paint and allowed teams a 2-point shooting success rate of 59.2 percent (148-of-250). 

Though High did his job against Pitt, the status of Veesaar on Tuesday will be even more critical to North Carolina’s success in exploiting N.C. State’s rim protection deficiencies. 

Series History: North Carolina is 168-81 against N.C. State all-time and 7-2 against the Wolfpack during Davis’ tenure. The Tar Heels also boast a 20-6 record at the Lenovo Center (previously PNC Arena), including last season’s 63-61 win in Raleigh, where Jalen Washington scored with 24 seconds remaining and then sealed the game on the other end with a block as time expired. 

UNC then completed the sweep of the Wolfpack in its second meeting with a 97-73 victory in Chapel Hill. Due to the ACC’s new scheduling model, this year’s lone matchup on Tuesday will be the first time since 1919 that the two programs won’t play twice during the regular season.

Projected UNC Starters: 
3 Derek Dixon (Fr., 6-5, 200) — 5.6 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.7 apg, 38% 3pt
7 Seth Trimble (Sr., 6-3, 200) — 13.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.4 apg
44 Luka Bogavac (Jr., 6-6, 215) — 9.8 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.4 apg
15 Jarin Stevenson (Jr., 6-10, 215) — 7.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg
Questionable – 13 Henri Veesaar (Jr., 7-0, 225) — 16.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 45% 3pt

Top Tar Heel Reserves: 
0 Kyan Evans (Jr., 6-2, 175) — 4.8 ppg, 2.9 apg
11 Jonathan Powell (So., 6-6, 190) — 4.8 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 2.9 apg, 36% 3pt
1 Zayden High (So., 6-10, 230) — 2.2 ppg, 1.8 rpg
4 Jaydon Young (Jr., 6-4, 200) — 2.1 ppg, 1.1 rpg

Projected N.C. State Starters:
1 Darion Williams (Sr., 6-6, 225) — 14.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3 apg, 40.3% 3pt
22 Ven Allen Lubin (Sr., 6-9, 250) — 13.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.0 apg, 68.4% FG
5 Tre Holloman (Sr., 6-2, 195) — 10 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.2 apg, 40.6% 3pt
2  Paul McNeil Jr. (So., 6-5, 190) — 13.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 0.9 apg, 43.5% 3pt
11 Quadir Copeland (Sr., 6-6, 220) — 13.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 6.8 apg, 42.3% 3pt

Top Wolfpack Reserves:
3 Matt Able (Fr., 6-6, 205) — 8.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.0 apg
21 Terrance Arceneaux (Jr., 6-6, 205) — 4 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.0 spg
13 Musa Sagnia (Fr., 6-10, 235) — 2.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 45% FT

UNC Info:
Schedule/Results
Roster & Bios
Stats

NC State Info:
Schedule/Results
Roster & Bios
Stats