College Football Playoff projections: Where does 10-2 Notre Dame stand entering Championship Weekend?

Notre Dame made its final case for the College Football Playoff on Saturday night — or Sunday morning in the Central and Eastern time zones — as it routed Stanford 49-20. But the Irish are unlikely to learn their fate until Championship Saturday.

That’s because most CFP projections place Notre Dame at No. 9, which still leaves head coach Marcus Freeman‘s team vulnerable to the doomsday scenario. If that is indeed where the committee puts the Irish, this is their path to the playoff:

1. Texas Tech beats BYU in the Big 12 championship game *OR*
2. Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC championship game

The key word is “or.” If Notre Dame is the No. 9 seed entering Championship Saturday, it only needs one of those two things to happen to earn a bid.

There are certainly other possibilities for Tuesday’s rankings reveal, however unlikely. A few prognosticators believe the Irish will jump No. 8 Oklahoma after the Sooners escaped with a 17-13 win over LSU on Saturday, during which its offense looked awful.

Others think they could fall to No. 10 or even out of the projected field altogether, due to the reevaluation of Notre Dame’s resume against those of Miami, BYU, Texas and Vanderbilt. In that case, the Irish would need both Texas Tech and Georgia to win — or they could receive the gut punch of their CFP prospects snuffed out right away.

But again, both potential changes are improbable. The most likely outcome is the No. 9 seed, a projected road playoff game and a temporary trip to Red Raider and Bulldog fandom on Saturday. Here’s where the national experts have the Irish after Week 14.

ESPN’s Heather Dinich: No. 9, at Oklahoma

“The Irish earned a decisive win at Stanford, leaving no doubt that they’re the better team against unranked competition — something other contenders struggled with during Rivalry Week. Though the committee compares common opponents — Notre Dame and Miami beat Pitt — the results were similar enough that it wouldn’t sway the committee enough to make a change. Notre Dame beat Pitt 37-15 while Miami topped Pitt 38-7. The committee has used losses to help separate Notre Dame and Miami, as the Irish lost to the Canes and Aggies by a combined four points. Miami’s loss to SMU looks worse after the Mustangs collapsed against Cal and were knocked out of the ACC championship game picture.”

Source: Projecting the College Football Playoff top 12 after Week 14

On3’s Andy Staples: No. 9 seed, at Oklahoma

“The Irish smashed Stanford, and tailback Jeremiyah Love returned to the blowout in the second half despite getting injured in the first half when he was kneed by a Stanford player following a tackle. Hopefully, Love will be able to recover in time for the CFP, assuming Notre Dame makes it. The committee has been consistent in its ranking of the Irish, but a BYU win in the Big 12 title game would create a bid thief situation that could make several teams sweat on Selection Sunday.”

The Athletic’s Scott Dotcherman: No. 9 seed, at Oklahoma

“Texas A&M losing to Texas causes it to fall out of the bye zone, but the Aggies still stay ahead of Ole Miss to claim a home game. An Oregon-Texas Tech quarterfinal could be called the NIL Bowl. Of course, Ohio State playing either Oklahoma or Notre Dame at the Rose Bowl is as classic as the mountaintops overlooking the iconic stadium.”

Source: College Football Playoff bracket prediction: Can Virginia save the ACC’s CFP chances?

ESPN staff survey: More of a mixed bag

Andrea Adelson: No. 10 seed, at Texas A&M
Kyle Bonagura: No. 8 seed, vs. BYU
Bill Connelly: No. 8 seed, vs. BYU
David Hale: Out of the projected field
Eli Lederman: No. 8 seed, vs. Oklahoma
Max Olson: No. 10 seed, at Ole Miss
Adam Rittenberg: No. 10 seed, at Texas A&M
Mark Schlabach: No. 10 seed, at
Jake Trotter: No. 9 seed, at Oklahoma
Paolo Uggetti: Out of the projected field
Dave Wilson: No. 8 seed, vs. BYU

Source: College Football Playoff predictions: Who’s most likely to make the field

CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford: No. 9 seed, at Oklahoma

“With Saturday’s result at Stanford, those can argue against the Fighting Irish in favor of Miami until the cows come home — the committee’s not hearing it. They’ve slotted Notre Dame in an entirely different tier — or pod — since their first set of rankings earlier this month, and there’s not a team in college football hotter than this group exiting the regular season. Notre Dame and Oklahoma are battling for that final home game designation.”

— Bowl projections: Miami shines as bubble team in focus, Texas joins College Football Playoff discussion

USA TODAY Sports’ John Leuzzi and Austin Curtright: No. 9 seed, at Oklahoma

“Two fourth-quarter touchdowns by the Cardinal don’t take away from what was a dominant performance by the Fighting Irish. Marcus Freeman’s squad sent a message to the CFP selection committee with a 49-20 win over Stanford, likely securing its place as a top-10 CFP team in the process.

“Should No. 10 Alabama beat No. 4 Georgia in next week’s SEC championship game, the Crimson Tide should bump the Fighting Irish in the bracket. But for now, Alabama stays behind Notre Dame in the rankings.”

Source: College Football Playoff projections: CFP bracket predictions for 12-team field