Latest mock draft churn has wide predicted first-round range for Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton

The reaction to Kyle Hamilton’s purported 4.7-second 40-yard dash at Notre Dame’s pro day in late March and what it means varies among draft analysts.

Some shrug it off with rebukes of “trust the tape” or “he plays faster on film” or, in more blunt terms, a version of “I don’t care.” Count ESPN NFL analyst Matt Bowen as part of that group. Hamilton was the first player mentioned in his story titled “NFL draft prospects who are perfect for today’s game” that published Tuesday afternoon.

“He’s a multiple defender, in both base and sub, and a smart fit in today’s split-safety defenses,” Bowen wrote. “He can drive downhill on crossers or in-breaking routes and deliver a strike on contact. He will heat up the alley in the run game, too. Plus, with the range to find the ball all over the field, Hamilton can rotate down as a robber/curl defender.

“There are no questions about his game speed based on what I see on tape, and he has the frame to match up against pass-catching tight ends. He is a rare prospect given his size and tools.”

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The idea of positional value knocking him down draft boards has become more of a discussion in recent weeks. Only three safeties have been top-10 picks since 2010. Just three have gone in the top five since 1991. That’s some strong precedent. Is Hamilton rare enough in NFL teams’ eyes to break it? If recent mocks are any indication, draft analysts seem split on the answer.

Take pre-draft comments from teams with a healthy dose of skepticism, but it’s worth noting the head coach of the team picking No. 2 overall, the Detroit Lions, dismissed the idea that value will be a major factor in their pick.

“There’s some guys ultimately that some may say, ‘Well, is the value worth it at two?’” Lions head coach Dan Campbell recently told reporters. “We don’t care. All that matters is this dude is going to come in and play and help us.”

Other analysts, though, have responded with some concern about positional value and Hamilton’s 40 times in their updated mock drafts, dropping him out of the top 10 or even top 15 picks in some cases. Among them is ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr., who slotted Hamilton No. 2 overall in an early March mock draft but now has him as the No. 11 pick to the Washington Commanders. Hamilton is, though, still the No. 5 player in Kiper’s rankings.

“Hamilton has been dinged a little bit because of his 40 time, which was a 4.59 at the combine and a little slower at his pro day,” Kiper wrote. “He’s a fantastic player, but he doesn’t have rare physical tools, which means he could fall out of the top 10. I would want him on my team. At 6-foot-4, he could play multiple positions, from center fielder to box linebacker. He would make plays for a Washington defense that disappointed in 2021.”

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Kiper’s ESPN colleague, Todd McShay, has Hamilton remaining in the top 10 of his most recent mock, released April 5. He’s the No. 7 pick to the New York Giants and the No. 4 player in McShay’s rankings.

“The Giants’ depth chart at safety is light, and adding someone with Hamilton’s size, range and ball skills to the back end could change the way offenses game-plan for New York,” McShay wrote. “Logan Ryan was released, and pairing Hamilton with Xavier McKinney (five interceptions and 10 passes defensed last season) would be an excellent last line of defense.”

Joining McShay is ESPN coworker Jordan Reid, who put Hamilton at No. 8 overall to the Atlanta Falcons in his seven-round mock draft. Pro Football Focus’ Anthony Treash remains sold on Hamilton as a top-five pick, pegging him as the No. 4 overall selection to the New York Jets in his latest mock.

“Despite his slower-than-expected 40-yard dash, Hamilton is still one of the most explosive athletes in the class, and he combines supreme length with fantastic eyes in coverage,” Treash wrote. “He totaled 22 combined pass breakups and interceptions in his three-year college career, and only five Power Five safeties recorded more than 15 over that span.”

That’s the highest prediction for Hamilton out there in the latest mock draft churn as the actual event nears. (The first round is April 28). The back end of his predicted range is lower than ever, though: the latter half of the first round. CBS Sports’ Will Brinson and NFL.com’s Chad Reuter have Hamilton as the No. 18 overall pick to the Philadelphia Eagles in their latest respective mocks.

“Precipitous drop for Hamilton but perhaps indicative of the positional value here,” Brinson wrote. “But the Eagles are squatting on two firsts next year and two potentially transformational defenders.”

Added Reuter: “The Eagles take advantage of teams’ ‘positional value’ knock on safeties, much like the Chargers did when landing Derwin James at No. 17 overall four years ago. Hamilton’s athleticism is not as impressive as James’, but his intelligence and big range in the back half will make him an excellent addition to Philadelphia’s secondary.”

Others have Hamilton going between No. 10 and 15 overall. He’s the No. 12 pick to the Minnesota Vikings NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein’s latest mock. He’s No. 11 in CBS Sports’ Ryan Wilson’s most recent mock. PFF’s Ben Linsey’s mock has the Houston Texans taking him 13th.

“If the league is going to let Hamilton drop this far because of a 40-yard dash and positional value, Houston will gladly take advantage,” Linsey wrote. “Hamilton has rare size for the position, and his jumps showed that he’s an explosive athlete even if he doesn’t have the long speed.”

Added Wilson: “[The 40] shouldn’t see him slip on draft boards because he plays much faster, but if he finds his way out of the top 10, Washington could pounce here.”

All told, the variance in projections is at its highest. Maybe it’s just draft silly season and he’s safely picked in the top 10 — the consensus among prognosticators from last spring until a couple weeks ago. Maybe Hamilton indeed waits until the teens to hear his name called.

The increasing suspense will end in 15 days.