Why trip to Wake Forest is a key opportunity for Notre Dame to enhance its NCAA tournament résumé
Finally, an opportunity to add to the résumé instead of avoiding putting a stain on it.
The final third of Notre Dame’s ACC schedule feels more like a minefield of potential harm, save for one game: Saturday’s visit to Wake Forest (1 p.m. ET, regional sports networks) in the lone meeting between two of the conference’s surprise NCAA tournament contenders.
The winner can push itself further away from the bubble. The loser’s tournament hopes won’t be crushed, but the margin for error will thin. As far as Notre Dame (19-7, 12-3 ACC) is concerned, Saturday is the last guaranteed chance to earn a win that really moves the needle on its tournament case.
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A road game at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum is the Irish’s last remaining Quadrant 1 win opportunity. Wake Forest (20-7, 10-6) is ranked 39th in the NET, well within the top-75 range needed to make a road contest a Quadrant 1 chance.
After that, Notre Dame has a pair of Quadrant 3 games (Syracuse, Georgia Tech), a Quadrant 4 (Pittsburgh) and a Quadrant 2 (at Florida State). Drawing a Quadrant 1 game in the ACC quarterfinals will require some specific dominoes to fall.
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As it stands, Notre Dame is 2-5 in Quadrant 1, 4-1 in Quadrant 2, 7-1 in Quadrant 3 and 6-0 in Quadrant 4/non-Division I games. The .500 record in the first two quadrants and computer numbers in the 50s are the wobbliest part of the Irish’s pitch to make the tournament field. Beating Wake Forest would bump both more a victory over any other remaining opponent.
Notre Dame has won four in a row away from home and is 7-1 on the road since a Dec. 3 loss at Boston College. The Irish have won their last two road games by at least 12 points.
Notre Dame (19-7, 12-3 ACC) at Wake Forest (20-7, 10-6)
When: Saturday, Feb. 19 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Winston-Salem, N.C.
Radio: Notre Dame basketball radio network
KenPom prediction: Wake Forest 74, Notre Dame 68
Last meeting: Notre Dame won 80-77 on March 9, 2021
Series history: Notre Dame leads 8-5
Leading scorers:
• Notre Dame: guard Dane Goodwin (15.1 points per game), guard Blake Welsey (14.4 ppg)
• Wake Forest: guard Alondes Williams (19.8 ppg), forward Jake LaRavia (14.6 ppg)
Other notes:
• Two transfers who are legitimate NBA prospects have fueled Wake Forest’s turnaround from 6-16 a year ago to 20 wins this season. Neither was on any draft radar when the Demon Deacons plucked them last spring.
Williams averaged 6.7 points per game last year at Oklahoma, a role player on a No. 8 seed in the NCAA tournament. He’s now a surefire first-team All-ACC selection, if not the league player of the year. He’s shooting 53.2 percent from the field while averaging 6.8 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.2 steals per game. He’s the No. 49 pick in The Athletic’s latest NBA mock draft.
LaRavia, meanwhile, averaged 12.3 points for an Indiana State team that finished fourth in the Missouri Valley Conference. A 6-8, 235-pound forward who can score, handle, pass and shoot, he’s one of the more difficult individual matchups in the ACC. He’s averaging 6.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game while shooting 57.8 percent from the field and 43.6 percent on three-pointers.
• Wake Forest is shooting 58.9 percent on two-pointers, third-best nationally. Williams and LaRavia are both over 60 percent. The Demon Deacons have made 35 percent of their three-pointers (94th nationally) and rank 74th in three-point volume.
• A win would push Notre Dame to 4-1 against the top six teams in the ACC standings.
