Detailing where Notre Dame’s 2023 ‘blue-chip’ ratio ranks nationally
The blue-chip ratio is the amount of four- and five-star prospects a school signs in a recruiting class. It’s not a complicated formula, but it’s one that paints more of the picture about a recruiting class.
Notre Dame’s 2023 class ranks No. 9 nationally according to the On3 Consensus Football Team Recruiting Rankings, but the Irish have the fifth-best blue-chip ratio in the cycle.
The Irish signed 24 prospects in the class, 19 of whom rank as a four-star prospect. Thus, the blue-chip ratio for Notre Dame is 79 percent.
In looking back at Notre Dame’s last 10 recruiting classes, the Irish haven’t signed above a 79 percent blue-chip ratio since the 2013 class, which ranked No. 4 nationally that year and had a ratio of 87 percent.
At least in our opinion, the blue-chip ratio is an indicator of how deep a recruiting class is. The Irish signing just five three-star prospects is an interesting data point to show the quality of the class from top to bottom.
Here are the top schools nationally in blue-chip ratio for the 2023 class: Ohio State (95%), Alabama (92%), Georgia (84%), Florida (80%), Notre Dame (79%), LSU (72%), Clemson (65%), Texas (64%) and Texas A&M (63%).
More on Notre Dame’s 2023 national ranking
The Fighting Irish inked their 24 players in the December signing period, which has essentially replaced the traditional first Wednesday in February National Signing Day. A high majority of players sign in December, especially for the Irish. Notre Dame didn’t add to their total of 24 earlier this month.
Notre Dame had the No. 8 class nationally following the December signing day, and on the February signing date, the Irish were passed up by Oregon after the Ducks landed a commitment from top-100 cornerback recruit Rodrick Pleasant.
The top-10 classes in America is as follows, in order: Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Ohio State, LSU, Miami, Oklahoma, Oregon, Notre Dame and Clemson. But as mentioned earlier in the article, only Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia and Florida have a better blue-chip ratio than Notre Dame.
The Irish signed the nation’s No. 6 class in the 2022 cycle. Notre Dame hadn’t landed back-to-back top-10 classes since 2013-14.
Understanding On3’s team rankings system
The On3 Consensus Team Recruiting Ranking is the only ranking that utilizes all four major recruiting media companies: On3, 247Sports, Rivals and ESPN. It equally weighs the four media companies at 25 percent.
Instead of a total points system like at Rivals, the On3 Consensus ranking uses a score average of the player rankings, and it solves the problem of varying class sizes during the recruiting cycle. It compiles the highest-rated commits for each team up to a total based on a rolling average of current total commitments among Power Five schools.
The current average number of commits used in the rankings score is 21. This means that of Notre Dame’s 24 commitments, only the 21 highest-ranked players are used for the rankings score.
To further explain that point: Notre Dame’s 24 commits have an average recruit rating of 91.47, but that is not the score used in the team ranking. With Notre Dame’s top 21 commits only being used in the On3 Consensus Team Ranking, and the Irish’s score with that group is 92.375 — and this is the number used for the class ranking.
With this model, there are no bonus points for having more commitments than other teams and only small deductions occur when a team has fewer commitments than the rolling average. Unlike distribution (bell) curves, this model doesn’t disproportionately weigh a team’s top three or four highest rated commits and is a more accurate representation of an entire class.
