Newsstand: Notre Dame makes huge leap in ESPN’s FPI after North Carolina win
Notre Dame is not ranked in either major poll. But the Fighting Irish are receiving recognition from ESPN’s computers.
After a 45-32 win at North Carolina this past weekend, the Irish moved up nine spots from No. 25 to No. 16 in ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The FPI is “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season.”
The FPI is based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season, and the metric that is determined represents how many points above or below average a team is. Notre Dame is deemed to be 12.8 points above average. Alabama owns the best mark in the country at 30.8. James Madison had an FPI score of 0.0, which makes the Dukes the most average team in the country.
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ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 2.9% chance to win the rest of their regular season games and a 97.3% chance to win at least six games to become bowl eligible. Still, the FPI’s season-long prediction is only 7.6-4.4, which means it predicts the Irish to win seven or eight games. That’d be a drastic downturn from at least 10 wins in each of the last five seasons, but it wouldn’t be so bad after expectations were altered after an 0-2 start.
Here are the top 25 teams entering Week 5 per ESPN’s FPI.
| Team | FPI | |
| 1 | Alabama | 30.8 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 27.5 |
| 3 | Georgia | 27.2 |
| 4 | Michigan | 19.3 |
| 5 | Clemson | 19.1 |
| 6 | Texas | 19.9 |
| 7 | LSU | 17.4 |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 16.6 |
| 9 | USC | 16.5 |
| 10 | Utah | 16.5 |
| 11 | Ole Miss | 16.5 |
| 12 | Tennessee | 16.3 |
| 13 | Penn State | 16.2 |
| 14 | Minnesota | 16.0 |
| 15 | Baylor | 15.2 |
| 16 | Notre Dame | 12.8 |
| 17 | Cincinnati | 12.2 |
| 18 | Washington | 11.9 |
| 19 | Mississippi State | 11.9 |
| 20 | Oklahoma State | 11.6 |
| 21 | Oregon | 11.5 |
| 22 | Florida State | 11.4 |
| 23 | Wisconsin | 10.8 |
| 24 | Maryland | 10.7 |
| 25 | Iowa State | 9.6 |
Notre Dame tweets of the weekend
Marcus Freeman was FIRED UP.
Extra, extra, read all about it!
Kyle Hamilton is a playmaker.
Quote of the weekend
“Coach Rees called an unbelievable game. He puts me in a position to go out there and do my job and execute. I can’t tell you how many times I ran over to the phone and said, ‘Coach Rees, that was all you.’”
— Irish quarterback Drew Pyne on offensive coordinator Tommy Rees
Headlines of the weekend
Notre Dame cruises to a 45-32 victory over North Carolina (Todd Burlage, Blue & Gold)
Game balls: These five go to the standouts from the 45-32 win over North Carolina (Todd Burlage, Blue & Gold)
Report card: Grading Notre Dame football in win over North Carolina (Tyler Horka, Blue & Gold)
Five thoughts: Notre Dame offense rolls in handling of North Carolina (Patrick Engel, Blue & Gold)
How it happened: Breaking down the Notre Dame football win over North Carolina (Tyler Horka, Blue & Gold)
How Notre Dame quarterback Drew Pyne shook off another slow start against North Carolina (Tyler Horka, Blue & Gold)
How Notre Dame offensive line turned a get-right chance into an impressive step forward (Patrick Engel, Blue & Gold)
What they’re saying about Notre Dame’s 45-32 win against North Carolina (Mike Singer, Blue & Gold)
By the numbers: 11 key stats from Notre Dame’s 45-32 win over North Carolina (Steve Downey, Blue & Gold)
How a first-half throwaway set the table for Notre Dame RB Logan Diggs’ uncontested touchdown catch (Patrick Engel, Blue & Gold)
Where Notre Dame football opponents rank in Week 5 Associated Press Poll (Tyler Horka, Blue & Gold)
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina snap counts, participation chart (Patrick Engel, Blue & Gold)
Breaking down PFF grades for Notre Dame football in win over North Carolina (Tyler Horka, Blue & Gold)
WATCH: The Mike Goolsby Show — reacting to the Irish’s’s 45-32 win over North Carolina (Mike Singer, Blue & Gold)
