Staff predictions: No. 15 Notre Dame at No. 6 USC

A new chapter in one of Notre Dame’s oldest rivalries begins Saturday. The No. 15 Irish (8-3) close the regular season at No. 6 USC (10-1, 8-1 Pac-12) Saturday in their first matchup as ranked teams since 2017.

More importantly, it’s the first edition of Lincoln Riley vs. Marcus Freeman. USC brought Riley to Los Angeles to pull the program out of a decade of middling results and has delivered thus far. The Trojans are still in College Football Playoff contention. Freeman was elevated to build on Brian Kelly’s final five seasons. He’s headed in a more encouraging direction after starting the season 0-2.

Two rivals. Two new eras. A long-awaited high-stakes game between the two.

Here’s how the BlueandGold.com staff sees the game playing out.

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Patrick Engel: Notre Dame 38, USC 34

Notre Dame tried to play clock-control and ran the ball against Ohio State’s high-end passing offense because it had to, even though it wasn’t good enough to do it at the time. The Irish will likely go that rouge against a similarly potent USC passing offense, but this time because they want to.

The ground game is their strength. This USC defense is a below-average unit, especially against the run. The season ends by executing the blueprint they couldn’t at the start of it, and by forcing Caleb Williams and the Trojans’ explosive offense to kick a pair of red-zone field goals.

Tyler Horka: Notre Dame 33, USC 31

Let’s preface this pick with a couple disclaimers. This score would bring two historic scoring streaks to an end. USC has eclipsed 40 points in five straight games for the first time since 2003. Notre Dame has gone over 35 points for the first time since 1943. The best chance the Irish have of swinging an upset is to stop the former streak in its tracks. But it’s still not impossible to win if it does not extend the latter.

Yes, this is a tough matchup for the Fighting Irish, but Freeman’s team has gotten up for those all year. Notre Dame will do enough offensively to run over USC’s weak defensive unit. The Irish go as sophomores Audric Estime and Logan Diggs go. Junior quarterback Drew Pyne will make a few timely throws and takes care of the football. As well as Williams has played this year, there have been times when this Trojans offense just looks a bit off. It’s been a while, but a 17-point showing vs. Oregon State on Sept. 24 and a 30-point effort vs. Washington State on Oct. 8 were not dominant.

Williams and the Trojans will stall one too many times, with help from the Notre Dame defense, and Freeman and company cap a rollercoaster of a season with their hands in the air. This win will be just as monumental as the triumph over Clemson.

Mike Singer: Notre Dame 28, USC 27

Not a whole lot has made sense about Notre Dame’s season in terms of performance and/or results in some games they were supposed to win but lost, and contests like the Navy game where they should’ve rolled but didn’t.

So, how about predicting No. 15 Notre Dame to go into Los Angeles and upsetting No. 6 USC? If this game becomes a shootout, then I don’t see the Irish keeping up with Williams and that passing attack. But if Notre Dame can control the clock and limit USC’s big play opportunities, then I like the Irish to win this one.

Todd Burlage:  USC 31, Notre Dame 30

Williams has been as good as advertised since transferring from Oklahoma to USC. He ranks third in the Pac-12 with 316.4 yards per game and easily leads the conference with 33 touchdown passes — which ties him for third nationally — versus only 3 interceptions.

USC is 6-0 at home this season, and has won those games by an average of 26.2 points per. The Trojans rank third in the country in scoring with 42.7 points a game and second in total offense at 513.0 yards per game.

Perhaps more troubling, USC leads the nation in turnover margin at +1.91. It also leads the country in fewest turnovers with 4, and is tied for third nationally for takeaways with 25.

Notre Dame has won four straight in this series. Strangely, this is only the second time that these two proud programs are both ranked for the matchup since 2006. The Irish have won 18 straight November games, the longest such streak in the country. But USC’s offensive firepower will help it eke out a win.

Steve Downey: USC 34, Notre Dame 24

The 2022 season has been a bit of a roller-coaster ride for the Irish, who have played both up and down to their competition throughout the season, last week’s domination of Boston College notwithstanding. The 44-0 beatdown of BC was a welcome sight for Notre Dame fans and a good launching point for this week.

The 10-1 Trojans are enjoying a rebirth in Riley’s first season at the helm. This is the deepest into the season they have gone with only 1 loss since 2008 — when Pete Carroll was still roaming the sidelines — and it is the first time they have been ranked in the top five since 2017. The Trojans have a legitimate chance at a playoff berth if they can take down Notre Dame and then win the Pac-12 title game.

The path to victory for the Irish is simple: they must run the ball effectively and keep the Trojans’ explosive offense (42.9 points and 513.0 yards per game) off the field. That formula has helped them turn their season around after the 0-2 start. Notre Dame has eclipsed 200 yards rushing six times in its last eight games and is 7-0 when winning the time of possession battle.

The Irish also need to find a way to win the turnover battle. USC has racked up 24 takeaways while turning it over just 4 times for an incredible +20 turnover margin. The Irish were -7 in turnover margin through seven games, but have flipped the script and are +7 over their last four. Continuing that trend will give them a fighting chance to knock off the Trojans.

Nothing would surprise me here. This is a winnable game for the Irish, but I believe USC’s high-flying offense and turnover luck will be enough to carry it past a revitalized Notre Dame team.