Where Notre Dame baseball is projected in latest NCAA Tournament predictions
Notre Dame’s fate is to be determined.
D1Baseball.com and Baseball America are widely regarded as two of the best national outlets covering college baseball. Wednesday, the sites released their latest NCAA Tournament projections. The Fighting Irish landed on the right side of the top-eight seed fence in one set and on the wrong side of it in another.
D1Baseball.com has Notre Dame has the No. 8 overall seed in the field — the last seed that’s guaranteed to host a Super Regional at its home stadium should that team advance to one. Baseball America has Notre Dame as the No. 11 overall seed, meaning the Irish would get to host a Regional but would be sent somewhere else for the Super Regional if the No. 6 seed won its Regional.
That “somewhere else” is a place that wasn’t good to Notre Dame in March: Louisville.
Here’s a full look at each site’s respective projections for Notre Dame.
D1Baseball.com’s NCAA Tournament projections
South Bend Regional
- (8) Notre Dame (28-10, 13-8 ACC)
- Stanford (26-14, 12-9 Pac 12)
- Rutgers (36-10, 15-3 Big Ten)
- Evansville (24-18, 9-3 Missouri Valley)
Fayetteville Regional (paired with South Bend Regional)
- (9) Arkansas (34-11, 14-7 SEC)
- Dallas Baptist (27-17, 6-6 Missouri Valley)
- Oklahoma (27-16, 9-6 Big 12)
- SE Missouri State (30-13, 13-5 OVC)
Baseball America’s NCAA Tournament projections
Louisville Regional
- (6) Louisville (32-12, 14-7 ACC)
- Grand Canyon (21-15, 17-4 WAC)
- Vanderbilt (29-14, 10-11 SEC)
- Wright State (21-19, 14-4 Horizon)
South Bend Regional (paired with Louisville Regional)
- (11) Notre Dame (28-10, 13-8 ACC)
- UCLA (30-14, 14-7 Pac 12)
- Iowa (26-15, 10-5 Big Ten)
- Evansville (24-18, 9-3 Missouri Valley)
What projections mean for Notre Dame
It’s too early to dive into specific opponents listed in the projections. They’re going to change. Could Notre Dame end up paired with a team or two listed? Sure. But that would just be happenstance if so.
The real takeaway is that Notre Dame is floating on the top-eight seed bubble. Losses mount, and the bubble pops. The Irish win, and they slip inside the cutline — safe and sound.
Head coach Link Jarrett has to know where his team stands. This is a critical juncture in the schedule. Notre Dame has a very winnable home series against Pitt next weekend, and then the Irish finish the regular season with a whammy of a three-game set at Miami — a top-five overall seed in both sites’ projections and the top team in the ACC.
The outlook is simple. Exit those six games with a winning record, and the opportunity to host through the Super Regional round is still there. A 5-1 mark could cement it. 6-0? Church. But come out .500 or worse, and the chances are slim to none.
That’s a scary thought for a Notre Dame team that has been feast or famine in ACC play. The Irish have been swept twice, once at Louisville and once at Duke. But they’ve also completed three three-game sweeps and a two-game sweep of NC State.
Consistency is key in any sport. If Notre Dame finds some down the stretch, it would behoove its chances of bringing mid-June baseball to Frank Eck Stadium.
