Where Notre Dame stands in projected NCAA tournament brackets as Irish continue crucial week
Selection Sunday is less than six weeks away.
There are NCAA tournament locks at this point. There are other teams who are on the cusp of all but assuring themselves of a bid. Others need more time to get there. Some teams may never reach lock status – not even ones who end up in the bracket.
Notre Dame men’s basketball finds itself somewhere in those last two categories. That’s good and bad news. The positive is that’s a place the Irish haven’t been since 2017-18. They never sniffed it last season or in 2018-19 amid sub-.500 seasons. Life on the bubble is also full of anxiety and nerves, though. Every game is a chance to make an impression, for better or worse.
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The Irish’s Monday showing against Duke was a turn-off. They have two chances at redemption this week, including a Wednesday night road game at ACC leader Miami (7 p.m. ET, Regional Sports Networks).
If the Irish want to find themselves on the safe side of the tournament bubble, they will have to build their résumé with road wins. Monday was likely their last Quadrant 1 game at home. As it stands, Notre Dame has three Quadrant 1 games left in the regular season: Wednesday at Miami, Feb. 12 at Clemson and Feb. 19 at Wake Forest. A March 2 trip to Florida State (No. 79 in the NET) is on the cusp of Quadrant 1 status.
The chances to enhance the résumé aren’t plentiful, but they do exist. And according to current bracket projections, Notre Dame (14-7, 7-3 ACC) has a résumé that already puts it right on the cusp of the field of 68, if not in it. Here’s what the latest bracketology churn thinks of the Irish’s chances.
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Bracket Matrix
Notre Dame is the sixth team out of the field on Bracket Matrix, a composite of more than 110 bracketologists’ projections that is updated daily. Florida (first team out), Florida State, Mississippi State, Michigan and Belmont are ahead of the Irish. There are 13 projections in BracketMatrix that include Notre Dame – nine as a No. 12 seed, three as a No. 11 and one as a No. 10. All those picks were as of Monday, prior to Notre Dame’s loss to Duke.
ESPN
ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi updates his projections daily. His Tuesday one had Notre Dame as the No. 4 team in the “first four out” behind Creighton, Mississippi State and West Virginia.
CBS Sports
CBS’ Jerry Palm updated his picks Monday before Notre Dame’s loss, but slotted the Irish as a No. 11 seed playing No. 6 Texas in the West Region. There are few balmier outlooks for Notre Dame than this one, which had it avoiding the First Four entirely.
FOX Sports
FOX’s Tuesday update from Mike DeCourcy has Notre Dame as a No. 12 seed and playing San Diego State in the First Four in Dayton, Ohio. The Irish are the first team in the “last four in” section.
SportingNews
SN’s Bill Bender put Notre Dame as a No. 12 seed and in the First Four Tuesday. The Irish are the second-to-last team in the field in his projection, with Texas A&M as the final team in. Those two played on Nov. 24, with the Aggies winning 73-67.
Notre Dame quick facts
Record: 14-7, 7-3 ACC (tied for third)
NET ranking: 71
KenPom ranking: 73
Quadrant 1 record: 1-5
Quadrant 2: 3-1
Quadrant 3: 5-1
Quadrant 4: 4-0
Notre Dame (14-7, 7-3) at Miami (16-5, 8-2)
When: Wednesday, Feb. 2 at 7 p.m. ET
Where: Watsco Center, Coral Gables, Fla.
Radio: Notre Dame basketball radio network
KenPom prediction: Miami 75, Notre Dame 70
Last meeting: Notre Dame won 71-61 on Feb. 14, 2021
Series history: Notre Dame leads 14-12
Leading scorers:
• Notre Dame: guard Dane Goodwin (14.6 points per game), guard Blake Wesley (14.5 ppg)
• Miami: guard Kam McGusty (18.0 ppg), guard Isaiah Wong (16.0 ppg)
Other notes:
• This is a matchup of two resurgent programs with past ACC success, but more recent struggles. Miami and Notre Dame combined for three ACC regular-season or tournament titles in the 2010s, but have zero total NCAA tournament appearances since 2019. These two teams finished 11th (Notre Dame) and 13th (Miami) in a middling ACC last year. They’re now tied for third and tied for first, respectively.
• Miami is shooting 41.3 percent on three-pointers in conference games, the best mark in the ACC. The Hurricanes are 18th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and first among ACC teams in league play.
• Defensively, the Hurricanes are a below-average group. They’re 155th in adjusted efficiency on that end, allowing opponents to shoot 52 percent on two-pointers (300th), 36.1 percent on threes (275th) and take 41.9 percent of their shots from behind the arc (288th). They can, though, force turnovers (20.4 percent of opponent possessions, 86th).
• Miami embodies a favorite Mike Brey line: Get old and stay old. The Hurricanes have four sixth-year seniors, including starting guards McGusty and Charlie Moore (12.5 ppg). The latter is on his fourth school and used the COVID-19 exemption to play at Miami.
