Scarlet Sunrise: Tracking where Ohio State lands in post-spring SP+, returning production rankings

On3 imageby:Andy Backstrom06/08/23

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Tracking where Ohio State lands in post-spring SP+, returning production rankings

ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his post-spring SP+ rankings, in addition to his post-spring returning production rankings last month.

Ohio State remained No. 2 in SP+ ranking since Connelly’s February preseason projection. The Buckeyes’ SP+ rating of 29.6 is only lower than back-to-back national champion Georgia (29.9). Actually, the top-four teams stayed the same, in terms of overall SP+ rating, since February.

Ohio State did, however, slightly slide in offensive and defensive SP+ ratings. The Buckeyes are now second nationally in offensive SP+ rating (46.4) and 13th in the country in defensive SP+ rating (16.7). Whereas, back in February, they were first in offensive SP+ rating (46.3) and 10th in defensive SP+ rating (16.3).

SP+ CONTEXT

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that Connelly has been measuring since he was at Football Outsiders in 2008.

Connelly: “SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Here are the five factors Connelly uses to determine SP+ ratings: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. SP+ is listed in the adjusted points per game format. Essentially, it indicates how many points better (positive) or worse (negative) a team is than the average college football team in the current season. There are also offensive and defensive SP+ ratings — presented in adjusted scoring averages (points per game) — within a team’s overall SP+ rating.

So, at the moment, Connelly projects Ohio State to be 29.6 points better than the average college football team in 2023. And, according to his calculations, the Buckeyes are on track to post adjusted scoring averages of 46.4 points per game on offense and 16.3 points per game allowed on defense.

RETURNING PRODUCTION CONTEXT

Returning production is a weighted evaluation created by Connelly that factors in predictive personnel stats, like percentage of quarterback passing yards returning, that determine how much production a team is bringing back into the new season. The idea is that, rather than just comparing the number or returning starters, you have a more analytical assessment of teams’ offseason turnover.

In Connelly’s updated returning production rankings, which account for spring transfer window arrivals and departures, Ohio State is 38th (68%). If you break it down, the Buckeyes are 81st in offensive returning production (60%) and 12th in defensive returning production (77%).

That’s an improvement from the winter when they were 48th in overall returning production (67%), 97th in offensive returning production (57%) and 20th in defensive returning production (still 77%).

Ohio State can afford a lower returning production percentage — both on a macro and micro level — more than other programs because of its strong recruiting pipeline that makes up for having fewer fourth, fifth and sixth-year returners. For instance, in 2016, the Buckeyes brought back only 33% of their production from the previous year and managed to go 11-2 and finish No. 6 in the final AP Poll.

In that way, Ohio State can be the exception to the rule when it comes to returning production.

Intel, breakdown on uncommitted targets heading to Ohio State this weekend

Ohio State has an important official visit weekend, maybe its largest of the summer, on tap.

The Buckeyes are welcoming 16 prospects on campus. That includes eight Buckeyes commits from a 2024 class that is currently made up of 13 Ohio State pledges and is No. 2 nationally, according to the On3 Industry Ranking.

But what about the uncommitted prospects who will be attending? Lettermen Row has you covered.

For a full rundown of Buckeyes targets who will be at Ohio State this weekend, go here.

Top-five Buckeyes running back performances since Ryan Day became head coach

The last three Ohio State quarterbacks have been Heisman Trophy finalists and top-15 picks in the NFL Draft. Ryan Day, now in his fifth year as head coach, has played a big part in the development of those signal callers.

Ohio State’s offensive success under Day hasn’t been limited to the air, though. The Buckeyes were fifth (2019), eighth (2020), 47th (2021) and 32nd (2022) in rushing offense over the last four years.

In that span, Ohio State has had a bevy of impressive running back performances. Some have even tied or broken single-game program records. Lettermen Row ranked the top five since Day became the Buckeyes’ full-time frontman.

Check it out here.

Counting down

Buckeyes vs. Indiana: 86 days

Buckeyes vs. Michigan: 170 days

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