Ultimate Preview: Oregon Men's Basketball Season

It is going to be an exciting year for Oregon hoops with a great mix of returning talent and newcomers for coach Dana Altman. I’m looking forward to watching this team compete with UCLA for the league title — and hopefully beyond.

Projected starters

Will Richardson, senior, PG: Richardson returns for his final year fully healthy and ready to roll. He’s really improved over his career as a shooter, becoming a consistent knock-down guy off the catch and with the dribble.

Richardson can finish with both hands in the lane and is a great free-throw shooter. He’s tall and long for a guard and will continue to be disruptive at the top of the zone.

Don’t expect him to have a Payton Pritchard-type senior year, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in contention for Pac-12 player of the year. The nice thing about Will is he doesn’t need the ball the make an impact.

Also, Oregon will have the luxury of having what amounts to two point guards between him and …

De’vion Harmon, junior, SG: Super excited about Harmon, a transfer from Oklahoma who had interest from all the big players in the transfer market. He’s a 6-2 combo guard who can play either position in the backcourt.

Harmon can shoot it well enough, but I would like to see him improve his efficiency in that category. Averaged 13 points per game last year and should slot in well next to Will.

Eric Williams Jr., senior, SF: Big-time athlete with length on the wing who rebounds and plays defense at a high level. Very left-hand dominant off the bounce but can be a good shooter if he becomes more consistent.

The ideal guy in Dana’s system in terms of versatility, he could bump up to a small-ball 4 against certain match-ups. If he can shoot it between 36% and 40% from beyond the arc, he’ll be a big-time contributor.

Quincy Guerrier, junior, PF: A consensus top-5 player in the transfer market last year from Syracuse, the 6-8 Guerrier averaged 14 points and 8 boards a game

Guerrier fits perfectly as Altman’s prototype 4. Expect to see him in the Dillon Brooks/Eugene Omoruyi role – beating bigger 4s off the dribble. And he can move to the 5 on occasion and stretch the defense.

With his length and athleticism, Guerrier can guard 3 through 5. And has a post-up game he can go to depending on the match-up.

As with Williams, his last step towards becoming a force is improving on his career percentage in the low 30s from long range.

Franck Kepnang, sophomore, C: Came on at the end of last year as a defensive presence, becoming a team leader in terms of energy. Really raw as an offensive player, so don’t expect to see him getting many touches in the post.

Good defensive instincts as a rebounder and shot-blocker at 6-11. He will be able to finish at the rim on lobs.

Kepnang’s minutes will vary game-by-game depending the opponent, as I see the Ducks going small in certain situations. Against bigger teams, however, he’ll be a presence in the middle of the zone.

The team clearly feeds off his energy and how hard he plays.

Top rotation guys

Jacob Young, senior, SG/SF: Rutgers transfer and younger brother of Oregon great Joe Young. Really good defender who averaged 14 points a game last year.

I could see him starting if Harmon or Williams struggles early,. But either way, the 6-3 senior should log major minutes.

Young had the opportunity when leaving Houston to fill a bigger role elsewhere, which tells a lot about the kid’s desire to win. Like so many of our guys, he’s a great defender and athlete who just needs to shoot it better.

Nate Bittle, freshman, PF/C: A 5-star recruit out of Crater in Southern Oregon, the 7-footer is generously listed at 215 pounds. Really talented offensive player for his size who can stretch the court and put the ball on the floor.

I will be interested to see how he’s developed over the last year prepping in Northern California, as that will determine how much he will contribute. His length will help him stay on the floor in our defense, as Dana’s system doesn’t require a lot of 1-1 post match-ups.

I think Bittle can contribute early on offense. He would be a perfect stretch 5 eventually if he can be solid defensively and most importantly, rebound.

Rivaldo Soares, junior, SG/SF: Naturally, the junior college all-American has drawn a lot of comparisons to Chris Duarte. Doubt he has the defensive presence Duarte, but he can shoot it – which we need.

With a talented offensive game, Soares can play off our guards to shoot it off the catch. Good size at 6-7, which gives us the ability to rotate him from the 2 to the 4 as needed.

Like Bittle, Soares’ minutes early will depend on development over the last year and how quickly Dana trusts him to defend and rebound.

N’Faly Dante, junior, C: Guessing we don’t see any of Dante until conference play as he recovers from a knee injury, but that shouldn’t be an issue. As discussed, I could see Guerrier and Bittle both playing up in size if Kepnang is in foul trouble or ineffective.

When Dante is right, he’s a really good offensive player who can score in the post. And he was improving as a defender and rebounder before he got hurt.

I would would think Dante will battle Kepnang for minutes. Would be nice to go into March with the option of three 7-footers to mix and match, depending on who we’re facing.

Nonconference match-ups

11/12: SMU

11/16: BYU (Portland)

11/22-24: Maui Invitational (Las Vegas)

12/18: Baylor

12/21: Pepperdine

Love the nonconference slate, with my only real gripe being the lack of a true road game. I don’t prefer going into conference play without that experience, but we can only hope that the multiple neutral-site games will help prepare Oregon.

SMU and Pepperdine are both solid programs that will add to the strength of schedule come March. BYU is an important game for seeding; it’s neutral-site, and the Cougars will be in contention for a tourney berth.

Baylor will be the Ducks’ best chance at a signature win. Although the Bears lost a ton of talent from their national title team, they added a bunch of good transfers and should be ranked highly again.

For the relocated Maui Invitational (Vegas), Oregon opens with Chaminade and then will likely play some combination of St. Mary’s/Notre Dame/Houston. Although none are true hoops blue bloods, any major conference win helps your seed line come March.

I think we will be favored in every game listed above, save maybe Baylor. 10-1 or 11-0 puts us in a great spot beginning conference play.

(The Ducks do play ASU and at Stanford during the nonconference portion of play, on Dec. 5 and Dec. 12. Those count as conference games.)

Conference match-ups

UCLA is obviously the headliner, but I also several other teams being near the top of the Pac-12.

UCLA

A consensus top-5 team that returns almost all their dudes and adds 7-foot Myles Johnson and 6-8 Peyton Watson. Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez are really good, versatile wings who could play anywhere in the country.

Johnson is a good shot blocker and defensive presence, while Watson is a 5-star wing who can really play. And while coach Mick Cronin isn’t for everyone, he gets his teams to play tough.

I think the top-5 talk is a bit much, honestly, given it is all based on one unlikely tourney run as a bubble team. The Bruins are favorites in the conference, but I’m not so sure they are a step above everyone else.

USC

The Trojans lost their two best players from last year in Evan Mobley and Tahj Eady. But Mobley’s brother, Isaiah, returns, and they landed a good transfer point guard in Boogie Ellis from Memphis.

They return some senior role players, but the high-end talent on the roster is lacking – and they have basically zero outside shooting. I’m not super high on them personally, but the preseason media poll has them third.

I just don’t think Andy Enfield is a very good coach, and Evan Mobley carried them last year.

Arizona

It is not the Arizona we know, but the Wildcats have two really talented European players in 6-10 Azuolas Tubelis and 6-6 Bennedict Mathurin. They also added four other transfers.

I think their new coach, Tommy Lloyd from Gonzaga, will eventually do very well. Their guards are weak, and I think it’ll take a bit to get that program going again.

I predict a .500 or so conference record. 

WSU

The Cougs are my dark horse this year to make the NCAA tourney. I don’t think they can contend for the conference title, but they will be a tough team to play under a good coach.

They return most of their roster. Noah Williams is really good, and they brought in some higher-level recruits than typically seen in Pullman.

I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if they finish in the top 4 in the league and get a first-round bye in Vegas.

Evaluation

Super-jazzed about this team and its chances to make a deep run.

I kept touching on it above, but the defensive potential of this team is exciting. We have big-time athletes at every level, all with the length and the bounce to be super-disruptive in Altman’s match-up zone and full-court presses.

What would take Oregon from top 15 to a Final Four contender is the ability to shoot as a team. I assume most of our opponents will zone us all game to limit our explosiveness off the dribble. We will have an athleticism and size advantage against almost every team that we play.

If Richardson, Harmon, Soares and Williams can all get close to 40% from three, we’re going to be brutal to defend. Throw the versatility of Guerrier/Bittle and whoa boy.

It is just hard to pick against Altman. You could argue this squad is as talented as the 2017 team, with easily more depth.

Success in the postseason seems to be trending back to favoring experience. And being able to roll out multiple juniors and seniors who have played in big games reminds me of the Final Four run.

We have the depth to play big or small. And I see Guerrier as a perfect fit for Dana as a power forward.

Going to be a fun year!

Prediction

26-5 (16-4). I think we go 10-1 in nonconference and tie for the league title with UCLA at 16-4.