Penn State-Michigan State matchups: Who will have the edge when the Lions meet the Spartans?

Penn State is rolling and Michigan State is reeling ahead of both team’s season finale on Saturday. The Lions and Spartans meet at 4 p.m. on FOX Sports One. It’s Senior Day for head coach James Franklin’s Nittany Lions. They are nearly a two-touchdown favorite for the third week in a row before kickoff.

Head coach Mel Tucker’s side comes to State College fresh off a 39-31 double overtime loss to Indiana that included a 17-point blown Spartans lead. MSU must upset the Lions to reach the postseason.

“We’ve turned the page and moved on,” Tucker told reporters on Monday.

“Our team knows how to have intentional focus and how to move on and how to improve and how to get better and how to own things. That’s what we’re doing. The attitude was really good today, really focused. … It’s a new day for us.”

Here’s how the matchups break down before kickoff. Who will have the edge? Let’s dive in.

When Penn State has the ball

There has been one big theme coming out of East Lansing this month: Injuries and suspensions have ravaged the Spartans’ starting lineup and depth, especially on defense. Michigan State is struggling mightily to stop the run, partially because it’s not hitting in practice due to a lack of bodies. Tucker’s team has given up 200 yards or more on the ground five times this year and in back-to-back games this month. Overall, MSU ranks 100th in the country in rush defense and 11th in the Big Ten.

“Our run defense has struggled,” Tucker said. “It’s been progressively not up to par as we’ve gone, so there’s things we’re going to have to do this week to try to rectify the situation in terms of how we practice, the looks that we get from our scout team and then reteaching gap control, run fits, run keys with the D line, linebackers and also the secondary, which is going to be a challenge for us but it’s something that we have to do.”

The Penn State plan, then, should be clear: Pound the run early and often by mixing in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen in an attempt to literally and figuratively run over the Spartans. Run lanes should be available and establishing the ground game early will open up play-action passing options later on.

All told, there isn’t much more to say here. Based on availability and talent, the Lions have a tremendous advantage on paper when comparing their offense to the Spartans defense.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Lions are on defense

On defense, Michigan State must deal with the fact that what it can’t stop very well, the run game, is Penn State’s strength. On offense, it will be forced to reckon with this fact: It doesn’t run the ball well, which means it will want to throw more than it hands off, which plays right into the strength of the Lions’ talented secondary.

There’s no question that Rutgers last week and some others earlier in the season have put some ways ot beat Manny Diaz’s talented corners on tape. That’s especially true with Joey Porter Jr., who has been sidelined for two weeks and could be out this week, as well. But, even when explosive plays through the air have been made against the Penn State pass defense, they haven’t usually come in bulk for four quarters, which is like the Lions are 9-2. The team has the Big Ten’s sack lead with 34, which is a good reminder that the pass rush helps the secondary in an uncountable number of ways, as well.

We would expect Diaz to let his corners be on an island while loading up the box and blitzing from all angles. Michigan State will hit a few good plays, but by and large, we can’t see them putting up big numbers on offense with or without Porter Jr., in the lineup. The run game is simply not good enough to worry Penn State, which is an ideal setup for Diaz and co.

EDGE: Penn State

Final word

Penn State has a 130-24 scoring edge over its opponents during a three-win November to date. Saturday should mark another chance to win by a sizable margin. Tucker’s team is ailing, and there is no indication that a major spark is coming. Thus, a mistake-free game filled with plenty of execution should lift the Lions to another easy win as they hit the double-digit mark in the regular season for the first time since 2019.