Penn State - Michigan State Predictions: Can Lions finish with a win?

Penn State is on the verge of a 10-win season, surpassing just about everyone’s expectations coming into the season. Fresh off his 100th career win, head coach James Franklin said this past week that he feels good about his team heading into Saturday’s Senior Day showdown with Michigan State.

“I think we got good energy,” Franklin said. “I do think we got good mojo about us right now. It’s late in the season. It’s a long season and there are times where late in the season can be challenge and a grind on everybody, and it just doesn’t feel like that. Even with bumps and bruises like we got, and we have a bunch of them, the energy is really good.”

However, since taking over the program in 2014, the Spartans have gotten the best of the Lions, winning five of the past eight matchups. Last year, Michigan State won 30-27 at home in the snow.

How will Saturday’s matchup go? Our staff gives their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season: 11-0; Last Game: 34-17 PSU)

A week ago, Michigan State was sneaking its way back into relevancy. Its loss at Michigan was bad and uncompetitive, but a double-overtime win against Wisconsin, a win at Illinois, and a win over Rutgers sandwiched around it for an under-the-radar vibe of a team bouncing back from its four-straight losses earlier in the year. A 39-31 double-overtime loss to Indiana, at home, upended that narrative, though.

Now, a Spartans team that has typically been a tough out for Penn State (3-3 in the last six in this series) comes to Beaver Stadium vying for bowl eligibility. And while that could be something of a motivating factor, the intangibles are much less important than the reality of Michigan State’s deficiencies against Penn State’s strengths. The Spartans aren’t good and haven’t been all season, ranking among the worst offenses and defenses in college football, with punting an anomaly of a bright spot.

Penn State’s offense still has an avalanche of issues to overcome, but over four quarters, the Nittany Lions have seemingly every edge.

Penn State: 42
Michigan State: 13

Thomas Frank Carr (Season: 11-0; Last Game: 45-10 PSU)

Things last season were headed in a very different direction for this game before a blizzard grounded the Penn State passing attack. Right or wrong, head coach James Franklin and offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich reigned in the deep shots to Jahan Dotson. Whether that was the right decision or not, it limited Penn State’s ability to attack one of the weakest secondaries in college football.

Fast forward a year, and Penn State loses all-around threat Parker Washington two games before the rematch. Despite that, Penn State should have the firepower to take shots and make plays against the Spartans. The ground game is also light-years better than it was a season ago, and this time, Penn State has the explosive running back that can turn a regular play into 40 yards (in fact, they have two). Offensively, Michigan State doesn’t have the same firepower, but starter Peyton Thorne is capable of quality throws that will extend drives. However, he’s also more than capable of giving the other team the ball with late throws and poor overall anticipation.

I don’t trust giving the offense more points with the losses they’ve sustained, even though I badly want to.

Penn State: 34
Michigan State: 17

Sean Fitz (Season: 11-0; Last Game: 38-0 Penn State)

This series has been the top one for the Nittany Lions, who have seen the Spartans ruin their season on multiple occasions. Michigan State is beat up, however, in addition to missing several key contributors due to a suspension. Penn State should be able to run the ball successfully, specifically through freshman Kaytron Allen. The Nittany Lions still need to find another threat through the air with a Parker Washington missing the rest of the season. 

Michigan State does pose a threat through the air with a pair of fantastic wide receivers in Keon Coleman and Jayden Reed. They will certainly test the Nittany Lions corners on Saturday, whether Joey Porter plays or not. If Penn State can shut those guys down on the outside, they have a real shot at making this a senior day to remember. 

Penn State: 34
Michigan State: 17

Matt Herb (Season: 11-0; Last Game: 28-13 PSU)

Looking back over a season’s worth of predictions, it’s clear that I’ve consistently overestimated opponents’ ability to score on this Penn State defense. Maybe I’m about to do it again, but I can’t help but think that Michigan State has a chance in this game thanks to its passing attack. Payton Thorne has been a thorn in Penn State’s side for the past two seasons, throwing for 325 yards in 2020 and 268 last year while compiling a 5-2 touchdown-interception ratio in those games. Through 11 games this year, he’s completed 63.4 percent of his attempts and is averaging 222.7 yards, with 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

All that said, Penn State is doing exactly what you would want a team to do when it has young players at a number of key positions on offense and defense. It’s been getting consistently better over the course of the season, and it hasn’t lost any games to opponents that it should beat. I think that will continue to be the case in its regular-season finale.

Penn State: 34
Michigan State: 21

Greg Pickel (Season: 10-1; Last Game: 35-10 PSU)

Michigan State comes to Penn State fresh off a 39-31 loss to Indiana that featured a 17-point blown lead at home. This happened against a Hoosiers team that the Lions just throttled on the road. The Spartans are dealing with suspension and injury issues that have kept them from contact in practice for the last few weeks. It has hurt the team’s run defense the most, which should be music to Mike Yurcich’s ears. Mel Tucker’s team has plenty to play for, considering it can go to the postseason with an upset victory.

But, the point spread is right here. MSU wants to pass, which plays to the Lions’ strengths. And, it can’t stop the run, which is Penn State’s best weapon on offense. Put it all together, and head coach James Franklin’s team might not win by 25 or 30 points again. But, it will score a resounding victory to hit the 10-2 mark to end the regular season.

Penn State: 31
Michigan State: 10

Ryan Snyder (Season: 10-1; Last Game: 38-7 Penn State)

Off of last week’s collapse against Indiana, it’s hard for me to see Michigan State getting up for this one. At 5-6, the Spartans are still alive for a bowl game, but how motivated are they to get this win for a trip to New York City to play in the Pinstripe Bowl? I don’t see it happening.

I think the spread, which currently sits at 18 points, says a lot, too. That’s just one-point less than what we saw last week at Rutgers. It wouldn’t shock me to see Penn State get off to a slower start, and thus keep this game under the total of 52.5, but I can’t see Michigan State surpassing 21 points.

Penn State: 35
Michigan State: 17