Penn State-Michigan State predictions: How college football experts, computer data systems are picking Lions-Spartans
No. 11 Penn State plays its final home game of the season today. The 9-2 Nittany Lions seek their 10th win of the year and also aim to cover another double-digit point spread when they host Michigan State today at 4 p.m. on FOX Sports One.
“I believe there’s a sense of urgency,” Spartans coach Mel Tucker said. “There’s a sense of urgency on the staff and also with the players. We always ask our players and we always ask the staff to raise the level of intensity every day and that’s happening.”
Added ninth-year Lions coach James Franklin:
“This week with Michigan State and Coach Tucker, who I’ve known for a long time and got a lot of respect for, obviously going to be a challenge coming into our place playing for maybe the most beautiful trophy in all of college football. If you guys haven’t seen it or anybody listening to this hasn’t seen it, look it up. The Land Grant Trophy is just a sight to be seen. It’s just beautiful.”
Penn State is a 19.5-point favorite and the betting total over/under is 52.5 points. Here’s how the game is being picked locally and across the country.
Computer model picks for Penn State-Michigan State
At ESPN, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 41-17 Penn State win and cover.
CBS Sportsline has it 33-17 in favor of the Lions. That would not equal a cover and is also an under bet.
The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 39-19 PSU triumph.
Finally, The Dunkle Index projects a 23.5-point Penn State victory.
Lions-Spartans picks from a national perspective
Sports Illustrated predicts a Lions win but Michigan State cover. It sees Penn State winning by 18 points.
“Sparty comes into the Land Grant Trophy game fighting for bowl eligibility while PSU has posted 40 points in three of its last five overall and hasn’t allowed 20 points since October,” James Parks writes. Michigan State is 1-5 against the spread in its last six games both against a team with a winning record and in its last 6 road games.”
Steve Lassan at Athlon Sports sees a Penn State win and cover. At The Athletic, sports betting expert Austin Mock has a play on the total.
“The battle for the Land Grant Trophy! I don’t love the hook here, but Michigan State should have a hard time stopping this Penn State attack,” Mock writes.
“I liked the MSU over last week, but the number moved right before I was going to post and it ended up an easy over against Indiana. Indiana just had its way in the second half of last week’s matchup with the Spartans so their should be little trouble for James Franklin’s team. Michigan State’s offense is slightly underrated at this point in the season and 53 points isn’t too difficult to get to anyway.”
Beat writer predictions for Penn State-Rutgers
MLive made Big Ten picks, and the site that covers the Spartans had five writers all pick the Lions. However, only three envision a cover.
“Michigan State squandered its best shot at bowl eligibility in last week’s collapse against Indiana and needs a victory at No. 11 Penn State, which has only lost to top-five unbeatens Michigan and Ohio State,” Matt Wenzel writes.
“The Spartans have shown life in the run game but their rushing defense has been awful lately and special teams were a disaster last week. Mel Tucker has led Michigan State to upsets on the road before but he will take a shorthanded team to Penn State.”
At PennLive, four of six experts pick the Lions to win by at least 20.
“Michigan State has been a thorn in Penn State’s side under both Tucker and former coach Mark Dantonio, but this Lions team looks primed for a fight,” Dustin Hockensmith writes.
“Sparty hangs around early, but big plays push the Lions to a win and cover. Penn State 35, Michigan State 13.”
Mark Wogenrich at SI calls for a 34-14 Lions triumph.
“Perhaps Michigan State rallies above all that to play its game of the season,” he writes.
“To counter, the Lions should employ a first-strike strategy. If the defense comes out hot and Clifford controls his emotions, Penn State should take charge quickly and stifle the Spartans.”
How the BWI staff picked Lions-Spartans
Nate Bauer: Penn State 42, Michigan State 13
Thomas Frank Carr: PSU 34, MSU 17
Sean Fitz: Penn State 34, Michigan State 17
Matt Herb: PSU 34, MSU 21
Greg Pickel: Penn State 31, Michigan State 10
Ryan Snyder: PSU 35, MSU 17
