Scouting the Spread: Penn State vs Michigan State
As of Monday morning, Penn State’s road contest against Michigan State is too close for the bookmakers to call.
The game is currently a pick’em according to the Vegas Insider Consensus. The line has moved all around since opening on Sunday afternoon with Penn State as a one-point favorite. Both Michigan State and the Nittany Lions have been available as slight favorites until settling at the pick’em equilibrium around 7 a.m. Monday.
The Nittany Lions covered in their last contest against Rutgers, moving to 7-4 against the spread on the season. Michigan State is also having an excellent season against with spread with a 7-3-1 record. The Spartans failed to cover in their most recent matchup against Ohio State in which they were obliterated 56-7.
The case for Penn State to cover
Any argument for the Nittany Lions always begins with their defense. Penn State shut out the Scarlet Knights on Saturday for its second clean sheet of the season.
The Nittany Lions allowed Rutgers to cross midfield once in the entire game. Penn State now owns college football’s fourth-best scoring defense, surrendering 15.55 points per game.
The Spartans, comparatively, own one of the worst defenses in the conference. They surrender 463 total yards per game on average — the worst mark in the Big Ten.
Michigan State allows 339.9 yards per game through the air as well, and that is how the Nittany Lions prefer to move the ball with a poor running game.
In total, the Spartans give up more ground than they gain by about a 33-yard margin on average.
There’s also an emotional component here that could swing this game in Penn State’s favor.
The Spartans are coming off a confidence-bruising defeat to Ohio State, but it’s also a loss that killed their hopes of winning the Big Ten East and making the College Football Playoff.
Penn State fans know first-hand that a loss like that can often lead to a hangover.
The case for Michigan State to cover
Michigan State enters this game with the more efficient offense — and by far the more productive run game.
Heisman Trophy Candidate Kenneth Walker III has 1,508 rushing yards to his name through 11 games this season. He’s been efficient, too, with 6.4 yards per carry.
The Nittany Lion defense has defended the run well enough lately, but they are still without arguably their most important run-stopping presence in defensive tackle PJ Mustipher.
The Spartans have also been excellent at home this season. They’re a perfect 5-0 at Spartan Stadium, including a big-time win over Michigan.
It’s also likely that Michigan State has the advantage in the trenches on both side of the football. The Spartans have a better pass-block and run-block grade than the Nittany lions according to Pro Football Focus.
On defense, the Spartans are a top-20 team nationally in sack production. They’ve got eight players on their roster with at least two sacks, led by Jacub Panasiuk and Jeff Pietrowski, who have 5.5 each.
The Spartans will need to pressure the quarterback to cover up with a very poor secondary, and they’re certainly capable of doing just that.
