Penn State-Michigan State storylines, keys in the Big Ten big money matchup, more: Fifth quarter

Believe it or not, Penn State is about to close out the 2021 regular season.

The Nittany Lions (7-4) and Spartans (9-2) meet Saturday in East Lansing with the Land Grant Trophy on the line.

Both sides have some health questions prior to a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ABC. It’s why most observers see it as a true toss-up.

“I think this time of the year, everybody is banged up, as you can imagine,” Penn State coach James Franklin said.

“Some are healthier than others. I think once we get through this last bit of the flu, knock on wood, I think we could be as healthy as we’ve been in a couple of weeks, which would be great.”

The final Friday Fifth Quarter of November covers the matchup ahead, the big money involved with this game, keys to victory, and more.

1. Storylines that shaped Penn State-Michigan State week

Penn State opened as a small betting favorite opposite Michigan State. The line since moved down to pick ’em, and until we hear some pregame injury news, it figures to stay there. If anything, it’s likely to go back in the Lions’ direction.

Here are the storylines that shaped the week:

–Back on Monday, there were reports that Mel Tucker and James Franklin could sign a new deal with their respective schools by kickoff. Franklin did Tuesday. Tucker signed his on Wednesday.

–Will Penn State truly be as healthy as it has been in a while? It’s possible, but it relies heavily on the flu bug making its way out of the Lasch Building.

–Where is Michigan State from an injury perspective? Star back Kenneth Walker III and top receivers Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor were all hurting last week. It’s unclear if any of them will be 100 percent by Saturday afternoon.

–Assuming  Sean Clifford is back, will Penn State be able to torch the Spartans through the air? MSU has the worst passing defense statistically in the country. It’s bad and should be a major advantage for the Lions.

2. This is a future-shaping matchup

Let’s set aside this week’s game for a moment. Sure, it matters in the sense that everyone wants to win. Also, the postseason pecking order will be affected by the outcome. From a national perspective, though, it’s more or less a blip on the radar.

While that’s the case this year, what these two programs are doing already has and will continue to impact the sport.

Franklin was already one of the highest-paid Big Ten coaches, and that fact is now cemented across the sport with his new 10-year deal. Tucker, on the other hand, now has a contract that lasts just as long and is worth $95 million.

It should probably go without saying that Ohio State coach Ryan Day is also in for a big payday soon. Jim Harbaugh, especially if he somehow beats the Buckeyes but even if not, has righted the ship in Ann Arbor for now and probably will want a similar deal from Michigan sooner rather than later.

While these double-digit year contracts might seem obnoxious to some fans, they are becoming the norm across the sport. So is the money that comes along with them. As we are seeing in this year’s coaching carousel, there is often more demand than supply for these top jobs, so coaches have that as leverage, and schools will pay up so they don’t miss their seat at the table.

It’s why this matchup is interesting from a national perspective moving forward. Both sides want to lock in their long-term future, and they are hardly alone across the sport.

3. Keys to a Penn State victory

Penn State has edges across the board on Saturday, from this point of view.

If the statistics don’t tell you everything needed to assess Michigan State’s secondary, just pull up some game film. It is often out of place, struggles in both man and zone, and can be exposed in all parts of the field. The biggest thing the Lions must do to win on offense is protecting Clifford. Saturday’s home side does have the second-most sacks in the Big Ten, but it doesn’t have one or two dominant forces on that side of the ball as, say, Michigan does. Sound, responsible assignment filling should get the job done in East Lansing.

Defensively, it comes down to keeping Walker in check. It’s impossible to say whether his limited work in Columbus (six carries, 25 yards) was due to how badly his ankle was hurting or just how out of hand that game was early on. But, if it was the former, then it stands to reason he could be limited against the Lions, too. None of the other MSU backs are ones to be scared about, which makes Walker’s health paramount when predicting this matchup.

All told, we’ll repeat two lines that we’ve used almost endlessly in this space for a month. Penn State’s key to victory is a mostly mistake-free, high execution game. We’ll note that missing field goals is something the Lions can’t have on Saturday, as well.

4. Penn State wins/loses if

For one final time in November, we ask how you would finish these sentences. Here are my answers:

Penn State wins if the Lions actually are as healthy as James Franklin says they are and they surrender three sacks or fewer while missing no field goals. Another key here is not missing wide-open receivers. Even when healthy, that has sometimes been Clifford’s Achillies heel. It can’t happen on the road in conference play.

Penn State loses if the Spartans are able to keep Mike Yurcich’s offense off schedule with tackles for loss and sacks while getting a big day out of Walker III and turnover-free execution by quarterback Payton Thorne. MSU would like it if he could just simply turn around and hand it off a bunch. The Lions must prevent that.

5. Final thoughts

Enjoy this final week of the regular season, Penn State fans. And, remember: Win or lose, a bowl game is still on the horizon for this team to show one final time what it is capable of this year.