Penn State-Northwestern Predictions: Lions start October with second Big Ten foe of 2022

Penn State opens October with its second Big Ten foe of the season on Saturday. The Lions are a massive favorite over Northwestern. The Wildcats will be visiting State College for the first time since 2014. They are currently listed as a 26.5-point underdog.

“Obviously at home,” Penn State head coach James Franklin said. “It’ll be a challenge. Whenever you’re playing a Big Ten opponent, it’ll be a challenge. We’re looking forward to the opportunity.”

The Lions are 7-2 at home against Northwestern all time, although they did drop the aforementioned 2016 matchup 29-6. How will this year’s contest play out?

Our staff at Blue-White Illustrated gives their predictions below..

Nate Bauer (Season: 4-0; Last Week: 59-17 Penn State)

Northwestern is a ball of issues right now, as evidenced by its 1-3 start including three-straight losses at home. Now the Wildcats have to travel to Penn State to face a Nittany Lion team that hasn’t had a close contest since its opener at Purdue. None of that means the hosts are in the clear on Saturday, though.

Showing signs of inconsistency offensively, taking advantage of short fields thanks in part to defensive opportunism, Penn State will have to prove it wasn’t a hiccup against a Northwestern defense that has been average this season. Most likely, the Nittany Lions will. And when they do, this is a Wildcat offense that isn’t equipped to keep up.

Penn State: 38

Northwestern: 10

Thomas Frank Carr (Season: 4-0; Last Week: 46-24 PSU)

Northwestern’s most reliable form of offense comes between the tackles. This game will be the best offensive line that the Nittany Lion’s defense has faced this season, but they can only do so much. Offensively, the Wildcats are much like Central Michigan in their approach with a heavy dose of inside zone and downhill man blocking. But those are also the very plays that Penn State bottled up last week and forced the Chippewas into the short passing game.

That brings us to quarterback Ryan Hilinski. The transfer will surprise you with some big throws, especially over the middle, but his primary calling card is consistent inconsistency. Duke did not respect Northwestern’s speed at receiver, and the result was several near pick-six plays thanks to Hilinski’s inaccuracy and bad mechanics.

Penn State has its offensive issues to sort out, but they’re in a much better state than Northwestern. The goal of this game is to get out to an early lead or force Northwestern to abandon the run with sound defense. Either way, they only have one form of offense, and only Nebraska struggled to stop it this season.

Penn State: 35

Northwestern: 10

Sean Fitz (Season: 4-0; Last Week: 52-10 Penn State)

Penn State showed last week that it still has plenty to work on despite a 4-0 start to the season. The Nittany Lions jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead on Central Michigan, and just when it looked like the visions of a 50-point game (or better) were inevitable, the team stalled out. Penn State managed to win by a comfortable margin, and while there are positives to take away from last weekend’s performance, you’re stuck wanting to see a bounce back against a team that may or may not be more talented than the Nittany Lions’ MAC foes.

On Saturday, Penn State will have to fire up the engine again and get back on track. Our criticism in the recent history with Penn State has been their inability to score points. Northwestern scoffs at that notion. The Wildcats just flat-out don’t score points and they’re coming off back-to-back losses to Southern Illinois and Miami (Ohio). Penn State’s secondary should have the opportunity to continue a strong run of play and get their hands on the ball. The Nittany Lions’ offense will continue working out the kinks in the running game and should be able to move the ball on the ground. I’ve dialed back the projected points this week, but Penn State should have another comfortable home win going into the bye week.

Penn State: 35

Northwestern: 10

Matt Herb (Season: 4-0; Last Week: 45-17 PSU)

Like a lot of people, I’m feeling a little less bullish about Penn State’s prospects this season coming off its lackluster win over Central Michigan. Yeah, it was just one game, but the Nittany Lions could have found themselves in a very competitive battle in the fourth quarter had the Chippewas committed fewer penalties and been a little less careless with the football. Fortunately for PSU, Northwestern has also been a bit careless with the football, as reflected in its Big Ten worst minus-5 turnover margin. The Wildcats have also given up the second-most rushing yards in the conference (160.8 per game). Both of those numbers point to a Penn State victory on Saturday, in spite of the red flags that the team’s middling performance last week may have raised. 

Penn State: 31

Northwestern: 14

Greg Pickel (Season: 4-0; Last Week: 49-7 Penn State)

Penn State is a deserving favorite in this contest. The Nittany Lions have advantages at almost every position and have proven they can win at home, on the road, against conference foes, and opposite an SEC opponent. The Wildcats, on the other hand, have not. They have, at times, struggled on offense. And, in other instances, they did not get enough from their defense through four weeks. Expect a better performance than we saw in last week’s win.

The weather should be OK and so should the offense after a sluggish performance. Defensively, the Lions will have to be mindful of what can be a quick passing attack. But, fortunately for Manny Diaz’s defense, they’ve dealt with that a lot already this season. A big win will send the Lions into the bye week with big confidence. That’s how this space sees it playing out.

Penn State: 42

Northwestern: 10

Ryan Snyder (Season: 4-0; Last Week: 51-17 PSU)

Considering I took Northwestern (-7) vs. Miami (Ohio) last week in our Best Bets segment, the Wildcats aren’t very high on my list at the moment. Miami (Ohio) has a host of injuries at the moment at key positions, and they were still able to take it to the Wildcats when the game was on the line.

Despite the fact that they also played Nebraska, Duke and Southern Illinois to start the year, the Wildcats rank near the bottom of the Big Ten in a host of key stats. That list includes scoring offense (13th) and scoring defense (12th).

Pat Fitzgerald is beloved at his school, but after a 3-9 season in 2021, this season is looking just as bad or worse. Add in the fact that Penn State is starting to play at a level we haven’t seen for a few years now and there’s reason to believe that this one could be a blowout.

The spread is -27 at the moment, which is right where it should be. One issue could be the weather. It’s unclear when or even if Hurricane Ian will make its way to Central PA, but some models show it could be here Saturday afternoon. If that happens, it could make this one a bit sloppier, and thus, would be a reason to stay away from the spread. Keep an eye on that this week.

Penn State: 38

Northwestern: 13