Penn State-Ohio State predictions: How computer data systems, college football experts, see the game

Penn State is a historic underdog in Saturday’s matchup with Ohio State at The Horseshoe. BetMGM is listing interim head coach Terry Smith’s team (3-4) as a 20.5-point underdog ahead of kickoff. The Lions were last a 20-plus point underdog in 2013, when a Bill O’Brien-led team went into Wisconsin and upset the Badgers.

“Yeah, you use it as motivation,” Smith said this week. “Obviously no one is giving us a chance. I’m going to reemphasize that to our team. I don’t think we’ve ever been 20-point underdogs since I’ve been here. But it’s motivation. No one believes in us, and we’re going to come out and fight like we did at Iowa. We’re going fight a little harder.”

Penn State is one of just six college football teams and one of three Power Four teams (Baylor and Oklahoma State are the others) to cover just one time this year. Will that number grow to two? And will the total points scored be more or less than 44.5 points?

Our weekly picks roundup provides a comprehensive look at what data systems and experts believe will happen before kickoff.

Computer model picks for Penn State-Ohio State

ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 32-19 win, which would be a Penn State cover.

Sportsline calls for a 35-20 Ohio State triumph. The Lions would cover in that scenario, too.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock sees it Ohio State 31, Penn State 11.

The Massey Ratings call for a 35-20 OSU victory.

Lions-Buckeyes picks from a national perspective

Writing for The Sporting News, Bill Bender predicts an Ohio State win and cover by a margin of 34-10.

“This was supposed to be one of the best games on the Big Ten schedule,” Bender writes. “Now, it’s a chance for the Nittany Lions to play spoiler against the Buckeyes. Penn State quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer grew up in the Columbus area. Ohio State is 6-1 ATS this season – one of the most-reliable covers in the sport because of a defense that allows just 5.9 points per game.”

Pete Fiutak is calling for the exact same score and outcome for College Football News.

“The Ohio State defense continues to be incredible, and it’ll be rested,” he writes. “Penn State is awful at controlling the clock and moving the chains, Ohio State is No. 1 in the nation in third down conversions, and …

“The Buckeyes will get pressed for about 15 minutes, and then the dam will break.”

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-Ohio State

For The Centre Daily Times, Jon Sauber has it Ohio State 34, Penn State 10.

“There’s a chance this game is close early, but Penn State has given little reason to believe it can stay close with a team as good as Ohio State,” Sauber writes. “The defense should be up to the task, but the offense has been disappointing all season and took an even bigger step back once Drew Allar suffered a season-ending injury. The Buckeyes should be able to take what I think will be a one-score game at halftime and run away with it in the second half because Penn State can’t score.”

Frank Bodani of The York Daily Record picks it Buckeyes 28, Nittany Lions 15.

PennLive’s four-man picks crew is unanimous in picking Ohio State to win. And only one of them is picking the Lions to cover.

“Effort will not be the problem on Saturday,” Bob Flounders writes. “A confident Buckeyes side is more talented. That is the problem.”

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Buckeyes

Nate Bauer: Ohio State: 37, Penn State: 6
Sean Fitz: Ohio State: 31, PSU: 10
Thomas Frank Carr: Ohio State: 35, PSU: 13
Matt Herb: Ohio State: 38, Penn State: 14
Greg Pickel: Ohio State: 37 PSU: 13
Ryan Snyder: Ohio State: 32, PSU: 10