Projecting Penn State football's remaining schedule with ESPN's FPI: How likely is 10-2 or 11-1 now?

Penn State suffered its first setback of the season on Saturday when it was blown out at Michigan, 41-17, in front of a sellout crowd. The Lions did not play well in any facet during the loss, which came in a top-10 showdown.

Now, head coach James Franklin’s team returns home for back-to-back home games to close out the October portion of its schedule. All hope is not lost. Ahead of this weekend’s White Out game clash with Minnesota, numerous national bowl projections still slotted Penn State in a New Year’s Six game. A win against the Golden Gophers would help that effort. So, too, would then somehow finding a way to topple Ohio State in two weeks.

“Tremendous challenge,” Franklin said Tuesday. “Looking forward to getting out there in Beaver Stadium and finding a way to be 1-0 this week and being able to come to this press conference next week and have some good stuff to talk about.”

Using ESPN’s Football Power Index’s win percentages, we can see how likely the Lions are to go 10-2, 11-1, or something better. Here’s how the remaining games on the schedule rank in terms of possible win percentage.

1. Penn State has a 16.9 percent chance of beating Ohio State

It should go without saying that this is by far the most challenging contest left on the schedule. Ryan Day’s team is unbeaten still and will be a double-digit favorite in Happy Valley at Noon next Saturday on FOX.

The Lions do have this game at home, at least. They last beat the Buckeyes in Beaver Stadium back in 2016. But, the visitors for this contest will have a clear talent advantage. The current listed percentage might even be too high, frankly. This will be a tall mountain for James Franklin and co., to climb if they want to steal a victory and shake out the College Football Playoff race.

2. The Lions have a 62.5 percent chance of topping Minnesota

And, unlike the Ohio State section, we feel this percentage might be a bit low. The Golden Gophers have a major injury concern at quarterback, as Tanner Morgan’s status isn’t clear and likely won’t be known until game day. PJ Fleck’s team has had an up-and-down year to date during a 4-2 start. And, the Lions will have a rocking White Out crowd supporting them.

Based on the current moneyline, which favors the Lions 1-to-2, Penn State would be expected to win this game 66.7 percent of the time. That number feels right. Even 70 percent seems reasonable. The spread (Penn State -4.5) is currently shorter than expected, but don’t be surprised if it approaches a touchdown by kickoff.

3. Penn State has a 63.6 percent chance of beating Maryland

Maryland, at 5-2, has had a better start to the season than expected. It is averaging 34.6 points per game and has moved the ball well. Star quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa is dealing with a knee injury, however. He’s a game-time decision this week, and it’s anyone’s guess where he’ll be by the time the Terps come to Beaver Stadium on Nov. 12. That said, Penn State will still be favored, and it goes without saying that we’ll know much more about both sides three weeks from now that will change the spread and win percentage possibilities greatly by then.

4. The Lions have a 75.4 percent chance of beating Michigan State

It is not a bold statement to say that Michigan State has been one of the Big Ten’s biggest disappointments this season. It did get back into the win column last week after losing four consecutive games. But, now, head coach Mel Tucker’s side is expected to be steamrolled by Michigan in Ann Arbor. The struggles have been a mixture of inefficiency on offense and an inability to stop the opponent on defense. It’s why a team that was considered a possible Big Ten East contender will need to win three of its final five games to become eligible for a bowl. This is both team’s finale, so again, we’ll know much more about each team by the end of November and that will impact these percentages without question.

5. Penn State has a 78.8 percent chance of beating Indiana

The Lions’ penultimate road game of the year comes Nov. 5 at Indiana. Tom Allen’s Hoosiers are 3-4 and have lost four straight contests. Only one of them has been a single-digit defeat. Indiana has been unimpressive on offense and its typically tough defense has been punched in the mouth far too often. That includes last week, when the Hoosiers lost to the Terps even after Tagovailoa left the game due to injury. Penn State will need to put together a strong game on the road to win, but being away from home appears to be the biggest obstacle it will face in this one.

6. The Lions have a 84.9 percent chance of beating Rutgers

According to ESPN FPI, this is the easiest game left on the Lions’ schedule. Penn State travels to Piscataway to take on Rutgers Nov. 19. Greg Schiano continues to work to rebuild and reshape the Scarlet Knights’ roster. But, it has been and continues to be a work in progress. It’s not a quick fix. And, that should lead to a comfortable Penn State win.

What does FPI say about a final record for Penn State?

The prediction system gives Penn State a 2.9-percent chance of winning out. It actually predicts the team’s final record to be 9-3 when rounding. Still, the odds above show 10-2 is still a very real possibility for James Franklin’s side, and that could very well lead it back to a New Year’s Six bowl game for the first time since 2019.