Matchup Preview: Purdue vs. Michigan

Purdue vs. Michigan – 2022 Big Ten Championship Game

Time: Saturday, December 3, 8:00 p.m.

Location: Lucas Oil Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 67,000 (tickets)

2022 schedules/records: Purdue 8-4 (6-3 Big Ten), Michigan 12-0 (9-0 Big Ten)

Series Notes: The Big Ten Championship Game will mark the 60th meeting between Purdue and Michigan, as the Wolverines enter with a decisive 45-14 advantage in the series which dates back to 1890. Though there’s plenty of history between these two teams, there’s a real lack of recent history. This will be the first meeting between Purdue and Michigan since September 2017, when Michigan defeated Purdue 28-10 on a scorching hot afternoon in Jeff Brohm’s first season. Purdue’s last win against Michigan came in “The Big House” in 2009, when the Boilermakers defeated Rich Rodriguez’s Wolverines for the second-straight season with a 38-36 victory.

TV: FOX (PxP Gus Johnson, Analyst Joel Klatt, Sidelines Allison Williams)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Pete Quinn, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: Michigan -16.5

Pregame: Gold and Black Radio

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Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Michigan Roster | Michigan Game Notes

Michigan running game versus Purdue against the run

Jim Harbaugh’s teams often embrace a physical, run-first mentality, and this is no exception. The Wolverines rank fifth in the FBS, averaging 244 rushing yards per game and will look to run the ball early and often on Saturday. The intrigue here comes in the status of Michigan’s star running back, Blake Corum. Before his knee injury two weeks ago against Illinois, Corum still had dark horse Heisman Trophy hopes as one of the nation’s best backs. He attempted to play against Ohio State last week but didn’t see the field after the first quarter, as his knee injury limited his effectiveness. 

Without Corum in the lineup, number two back Donovan Edwards put together a performance for the ages, racking up 216 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 22 carries. The former blue-chip recruit has eclipsed the 100-yard mark three times on the season and would almost certainly be a number-one running back on most teams. Add in quarterback JJ McCarthy’s ability to run and you’ll quickly see why this group has so much success running behind an elite offensive line, which won the 2021 Joe Moore Award.

All-in-all, Purdue couldn’t have asked for much more from its run defense to this point. Those big performances from Wisconsin and Iowa stung, but Purdue faced an incredibly run-heavy schedule and handled it well. From stifling the Ibrahim-less Minnesota rushing attack to holding Chase Brown to his season-low in rushing yards, Purdue’s front seven deserves real credit for their work against the run.

They may face their toughest test yet with Michigan, however. Not only do the Wolverines present the best statistical running game that Purdue has seen, but the offensive line will be the stoutest to line up across from Mark Hagen’s defensive line. It doesn’t sound like Branson Deen will suit up on Saturday due to an injury. That absence certainly doesn’t help Purdue in the run game. Another key: not letting McCarthy utilize his running ability too much, as opposing quarterbacks have seen some success running against Purdue’s defense this season.

Michigan passing game versus Purdue against the pass

When Harbaugh made the bold decision to start McCarthy at quarterback over last year’s starter, Cade McNamara, it showed the willingness to roll the dice with a perceived higher ceiling from the former five-star. That higher ceiling showed last week when McCarthy completed multiple deep shots to lead Michigan’s upset of Ohio State in Columbus. Though the season numbers don’t pop off the charts, just under 200 yards per game passing, McCarthy’s 17 touchdowns to just a pair of interceptions and 65% completion percentage are precisely what the Wolverines need to complement their run-heavy approach. While his consistency in the short and intermediate passing game could improve, his deep-threat ability constantly worries defenses.

Given how much Michigan runs the ball, and their large margin of victory in games, their receivers don’t rank among the top of the conference. After coming off a season-ending injury in 2021, Ronnie Bell leads the team in receiving and is McCarthy’s go-to guy. Last week, however, Cornelius Johnson broke through on a couple of “home run balls” to rack up 160 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Add in a solid tight end in Luke Schoonmaker and Purdue will need to respect this pass-catching group.

Purdue went from facing almost strictly a running game to a pass-happy offense when Dexter Williams got replaced with Connor Bazelak due to injury last week. The Boilers did a fine job limiting Indiana through the air. Depth is thin in the Purdue secondary, as they’re down to just six guys they’d like to play, but they’ve rallied well against three-straight weaker passing offenses. The Boilermaker defense has intercepted a pass in all three of their wins during the streak that won them the division. That might stand out as a “must” for Purdue to win this game. They’ll need to create some Michigan turnovers, and they’ll look to generate a pass rush to help with that. Kydran Jenkins and Nic Caraway made their marks recently, but they’ll need to break through an elite offensive line on Saturday.

What more can be said about Devin Mockobee? After clearing concussion protocol, the breakout star ran for 99 yards against Indiana, including a 27-yard touchdown run to pad the Purdue lead. He’s seeing nearly all of the carries at running back, and why wouldn’t he? He’s up to 849 yards on the season and has Purdue poised to break the 100 rushing yard per game mark as a team for the first time since 2018. Dylan Downing and/or Kobe Lewis will see a stray carry here or there to bolster Mockobee when he’s off the field, and don’t be surprised to see a jet sweep or two to Tyrone Tracy, but Mockobee will see the vast majority of the carries on Saturday.

Jeff Brohm tends to sneak in mentions about wanting his quarterbacks to carry the ball a few times per game, and he’s gotten it recently from Aidan O’Connell out of speed option looks. The veteran quarterback tucked it and ran a couple of times against Illinois and Indiana. While he’s not going to break away from anyone, any look at changing things up for the opposing defense and keeping them guessing remains worthwhile.

Though the Michigan defense lost their stars, Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, from last season, this defense remains excellent. The Wolverines enter third in the nation in rushing defense, holding opponents beneath 85 yards per game on the ground and to a mere three yards per carry. They’re strong up front, led by Kris Bennett and Mazi Smith, who eats up space and allow linebackers Junior Colson and Michael Barrett to make easy tackles. While they don’t excel in tackling opponents behind the line of scrimmage, they don’t let ball carriers get far past it. Opponents have found the end zone six times on the ground this season on this Michigan defense.

Purdue passing game versus Michigan against the pass

Aidan O’Connell’s strong day against Indiana became even more impressive when the news came out that he played with a heavy heart following the passing of his brother. Though the sixth-year senior left campus to spend time with family following the Indiana game, he was in practice on Wednesday and will play on Saturday. For the second-consecutive season, O’Connell earned second-team all-Big Ten honors, averaging 284 yards per game and tossing 22 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. He’s put together a solid season, but outside of the Nebraska game, he’s not had that defining performance similar to his performances in wins over No. 2 Iowa and No. 3 Michigan State a season ago. Could Saturday be that time?

Charlie Jones earned first-team all-Big Ten honors after leading the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns as one of the most impactful transfers in the country. Where would this group be without him? To help spark the passing game through other pass catchers, Purdue turned to Mockobee, who led the team with five receptions versus the Hoosiers, and Payne Durham caught his eighth touchdown of the season. Toss in TJ Sheffield and those will be the guys O’Connell leans on to spark an upset.

Though not as elite as the run defense, the pass defense checks in at 11th best in the FBS. Opposing quarterbacks get forced to check down quite a bit, as they average just 5.57 yards per pass attempt. That number reflects an excellent job by Michigan in not allowing receivers to beat them deep and, instead, requiring opponents to string together completion after completion to move the ball downfield. Michigan’s opposing slate of quarterbacks leaves much to be desired, but this group’s success is undeniable. They do not present a significant pass rush threat, however. That could allow Aidan O’Connell plenty of time to linger in the pocket and strike on big plays.

Special teams

Purdue’s special teams were a mixed bag throughout the regular season. Mitchell Fineran’s stats tell the story of a short-range kicker, as he’s lights out from inside 40 yards and shaky at best from beyond it. Don’t look for Purdue to push his range too much. Jack Ansell made a legitimate stride forward this year, but the quest for consistency will remain a factor. Even with the addition of Charlie Jones as a punt returner, the return game didn’t get much of a spark, as Purdue’s return touchdown drought still dates back to 2013. Though largely unspectacular, Purdue’s special teams haven’t had many real catastrophes.

Almost automatic from inside 50 yards, Michigan kicker Jake Moody emerged as one of America’s best. The Wolverines settle for a lot of field goals, as Moody’s 32 field goal attempts easily lead the nation. On average, they punt the ball less than three times per game, though punt returner AJ Henning took one back for a touchdown earlier this season. The majority of Michigan kickoffs result in touchbacks. With indoor conditions, don’t expect too many returnable kicks for Purdue on Saturday.

Intangibles

Rightfully, the 12-0 Wolverines enter as massive favorites. The point spread remains more than two touchdowns, but with that comes quite a bit of pressure on Michigan. Though they seem to be locked into the College Football Playoff win or lose, they don’t want to test their fate. They dominated Iowa in last year’s Big Ten Championship Game a week following a stunning win over Ohio State. Can they avoid a prime hangover spot again this season?

It’s no secret that Jeff Brohm’s Purdue teams are 3-0 against AP Top 5 games, but this will be their largest underdog role in those situations. In those three upsets, Purdue benefitted from massive Rondale Moore and David Bell games. Is Charlie Jones capable of the same? The old saying says, “there’s nothing more dangerous than a team with nothing to lose.” The Boilermakers are playing with house money on Saturday.