Brian Edwards' Best Bets: South Carolina pick, college football wagers
Brian Edwards is Managing Editor of MajorWager.com, Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, host of the Bet CFB podcast, and co-host of the A to Z Picks Show. He covers five sports — college football, college basketball, NFL, NBA and UFC — with a special emphasis on SEC football and basketball. You can follow Brian on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
South Carolina (1-1 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) will be in bounce-back mode Saturday when it hosts top-ranked Georgia as an enormous home underdog. As of Thursday morning, most betting shops had the Bulldogs listed as 24.5-point road favorites against the Gamecocks, who were listed as +1600 money-line underdogs at Circa (risk $100 to win $1,600 for USC to win outright).
The total was 55 or 55.5 points. Most books had UGA (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) as a 14.5-point ‘chalk’ for first-half wagers with a total of 28.5. In the first quarter, DraftKings had Kirby Smart’s team favored by 6.5 points at a -135 price with a 10.5-point total.
Georgia has won six of the last seven head-to-head meetings against USC with all six of those victories coming by margins of 14 points or more. However, the Gamecocks are 3-1 ATS in the last four encounters when they were listed as double-digit underdogs, including a 20-17 win at UGA in double overtime as 22-point ‘dogs back in 2019.
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Even though USC’s offensive line struggled in last week’s 44-30 loss at Arkansas as a nine-point underdog, quarterback Spencer Rattler still managed to throw for 376 yards. I’ve been really impressed with Antwane ‘Juice’ Wells, the transfer from James Madison who was an FCS second-team All-American in 2021. Wells had eight receptions for 189 yards and one touchdown against the Hogs. He currently leads the SEC in receiving yards.
Third-year sophomore RB Marshawn Lloyd looked a bit rusty and perhaps a step slow last year after tearing his ACL in August of 2020. But Lloyd appeared to be back in top form last week when he had 72 receiving yards on six catches and an impressive seven-yard TD run when he bullied his way into the end zone.
I’ve gone 2-0 ATS in my first two weeks of picking USC games. I had the Gamecocks’ Team Total to go ‘over’ 33.5 points in a 35-14 Week 1 win over Georgia St. Then I backed the ‘over’ (56) in last week’s game that had 74 combined points.
I was thrilled to see USC catching so many points on Sunday. Now the tough injuries Beamer’s bunch is dealing with – DE Jordan Strachan and LB Mo Kaba are gone for the season with ACL tears and CB Cam Smith is also banged up and listed as ‘questionable’ vs. UGA — put a slight damper in my excitement, but not enough to prevent me from backing the Gamecocks.
THE PICK: South Carolina +25 (South Points and DraftKings as of Thursday morning): Even if Georgia gets ahead of the number, the Gamecocks have plenty of backdoor potential with Rattler’s arm, Wells’s speed and Lloyd’s explosiveness. This is a true road game and the crowd will be a factor. Give me the big double-digit home underdog.
Enter Gamecock Central’s Predict & Win: South Carolina-Georgia
Other Week 3 college football picks
California +11 at Notre Dame: Justin Wilcox’s team is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a road underdog. During his six-tenure in Berkeley, the Golden Bears have thrived when listed as ‘dogs of seven points or more, compiling a 14-3 ATS ledger with six outright victories. They’re 9-3 ATS with four outright wins in 12 games as double-digit underdogs on Wilcox’s watch.
Notre Dame’s offense looked abysmal with starting QB Tyler Buchner, who is now out for the season with a shoulder injury. Therefore, the Fighting Irish will be giving Drew Pyne his first career start in this spot. He’ll face a Cal defense that returned eight starters from a unit that gave up only 19.7 points per game in 2021.
Purdue transfer Jack Plummer has given the Golden Bears an upgrade at QB. In 15 career starts, he has a 30/11 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Fresno St. +12.5 at Southern California: Fresno St. is 6-2-1 ATS with a pair of outright wins in its last nine games against Power-Five opponents going back to 2017. The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs, including a pair of victories at UCLA in 2018 and last season. They’re 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as double-digit underdogs.
Fresno St. QB Jake Haener has completed 65-of-87 throws (74.7%) for 737 yards and three TDs without an interception through two games. He threw for 4,096 yards with a 33/9 TD-INT ratio last year. Haener has a deep group of veteran WRs and a talented RB in Jordan Mims, who has 195 rushing yards and four TDs with a 5.4 yards-per-carry average through two games.
I’m still not sold on Southern Cal’s defense, which gave up 28 points to Stanford even though the Cardinal committed two turnovers inside the Trojans’ 5-yard line. Like South Carolina, Fresno St. has the offense to get a backdoor cover if it gets behind the number.
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Georgia St. Team Total ‘over’ 20.5 points in the first half AND ‘over’ 40.5 points for the game: Just like we did with Maryland last week against this atrocious Charlotte defense, we’re going to back the Panthers to score early and often against the 49ers’ defense. This unit for Will Healy has given up 56, 41 and 43 points to Maryland, William & Mary and FAU, respectively. In the last three games of 2021, Charlotte surrendered 56, 49 and 42 points to Old Dominion, Marshall and La. Tech, respectively.
In other words, we’re going to bet against this ‘D’ until it shows a pulse. We get to back a team this week that’s starving for a victory. Ga. St. had a 14-12 lead at USC midway through the third quarter in Week 1 and allowed a 28-21 lead vs. North Carolina with 1:00 left in the third get away last week.
Despite facing a pair of Power-Five foes, Ga. St. averaged 217.5 yards per game against the Gamecocks and Tar Heels. The Panthers are averaging 4.6 YPC as well. QB Darren Grainger had three TD passes without an interception against the Tar Heels last week.
Win a framed picture of The Hit (Jadeveon Clowney)
Vanderbilt at Northern Illinois ‘over’ 58: Vandy has seen the ‘over’ cash at a 3-0 clip with its combined scores coming to 73, 73 and 70 points. The ‘over’ is 2-0 for No. Illinois with its combined scores getting to 73 and 61 points.
Vandy QB Mike Wright has a 6/1 TD-INT ratio and backup QB AJ Swann has two TD passes without an interception. The Commodores’ defense gave up 45 points to Wake Forest last week. Through three games, that unit is ranked No. 107 nationally (out of 131 FBS teams) in total defense and No. 118 at defending the pass.
No. Illinois QB Rocky Lombardi has a 4/1 TD-INT ratio and one rushing TD in two outings. The Huskies, who allowed 33.7 PPG last season, have given up 38 points to Tulsa and 27 to an FCS foe, Eastern Illinois.
**NFL Bonus Picks**
Giants -2 vs. Panthers: Saquon Barkley looks 100% healthy for the first time in a long time. He torched the Titans for 164 rushing yards and one TD on just 18 carries in last week’s come-from-behind victory. Carolina was fortunate to make it a game in last week’s narrow home loss to Cleveland.
Browns -6.5 vs. Jets: More than anything, we’re fading the Jets here. Nick Chubb should run over all these guys. Browns win by double digits.
