ESPN analytics model predicts final score for South Carolina-Texas A&M

South Carolina (3-6; 1-6) will take on the Texas A&M Aggies (9-0; 6-0) on Saturday. The road contest in College Station’s Kyle Field will be the Gamecocks’ fifth game in a row against a top-15 opponent. Despite the tough opponent, USC needs to win to have a chance of reaching the traditional six-win bowl-eligibility threshold.

Texas A&M enters the contest as a 19.5-point favorite, according to BetMGM. However, ESPN’s SP+ predicts an even higher margin of victory for the Aggies.

The Insiders Forum: Discuss South Carolina football!

Designed by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, SP+ is a projection, not merely a ranking of what a team has already accomplished. Connelly explains, “What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking.”

Based on what the two teams have accomplished so far in 2025, Connelly’s model predicts a 36-15 final score in favor of Texas A&M. That would mean the home team would win and cover the lopsided spread. The analytics model has set the over/under for 48.5 total points. The projected score of 36-15 (51 total points) would represent an “over” hit.

Per Connelly’s model, A&M has a 91% chance to emerge victorious from the matchup with South Carolina. The prediction stems from the Aggies’ advantage in the SP+ efficiency metrics.

Overall, Texas A&M holds a 54-spot lead on USC. Ranked 5th in the updated SP+, Mike Elko’s team also sits at No. 2 nationally on offense, No. 18 on defense, and No. 63 on special teams.

Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks are now 59th overall. That comes with a No. 93 ranking on offense, No. 25 spot defensively, and No. 39 ranking on special teams.

Coming into the weekend, South Carolina is dead last in the SP+ SEC rankings. The Gamecocks are also last in the SEC in SP+ offensive efficiency, No. 10 in SP+ defensive efficiency, and No. 8 in SP+ special teams efficiency. Texas A&M slots in at No. 1 in the SEC’s overall SP+ rankings. The Aggies are 1st in the SEC in SP+ offensive efficiency, 9th in SP+ defensive efficiency, and 13th in SP+ special teams efficiency.

Join GamecockCentral now for $1 your first week and enjoy a complimentary year of The Athletic – included with your membership.

Kickoff is set for noon (Eastern) on Saturday. ESPN will carry the broadcast, while the ESPN app streams the action. Kyle Field will be sold out for the SEC showdown.

At the quarterback position, preseason Heisman hopeful LaNorris Sellers will do battle with current Heisman candidate Marcel Reed. Both players are NFL Draft-eligible but have multiple years of eligibility remaining.

The Insiders Forum: Discuss South Carolina football!