South Carolina women's basketball: SEC Midseason recap and awards predictions

The SEC passed the midpoint of the season last weekend. Every team except for Tennessee has played eight games. We break down where things stand with a month left in the season and predict the postseason awards.

Observations

– Tennessee already had a backloaded schedule, especially with both its byes coming in January, but it got even more daunting when the game against Ole Miss got postponed. That game will now be played on Tuesday, February 17, giving the Lady Vols a stretch of four games in eight days, alternating home and away, and against teams currently ranked fourth, 13th, and 11th.

Ole Miss has it even worse. During that same stretch, the Rebels play teams ranked 16th, 19th, fifth, and third. At least the middle two are at home.

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The difference is that Ole Miss seems to be peaking heading into the back stretch, while Tennessee is coming off two embarrassing losses. 

– Kentucky and Oklahoma are the hardest to figure out. Kentucky lost three straight to end February, all without Teonni Key. Key returned on Sunday, and Kentucky won by 20 on the road. But it was against Arkansas, so does it count?

Oklahoma also had a three-game losing streak, and despite having one of the most talented rosters in the SEC, the pieces didn’t fit. It looked like maybe they had finally gelled when Oklahoma played its best game of the season in an overtime upset of South Carolina. But the Sooners followed that with an uninspired win at Auburn, a win over Texas A&M, and a loss to Texas, where, despite a 78-70 final score, it never felt like the Sooners had a chance.

– Thursday’s LSU-Texas game is a de facto elimination game. The loser is not mathematically eliminated from the top seed in the SEC Tournament, but would need an improbable amount of help to claim the top seed.

Other critical games include Tennessee at South Carolina on February 8, Texas at Vanderbilt on February 12, South Carolina at LSU on February 14, Texas at Tennessee on February 15, Tennessee at Ole Miss on February 17, LSU at Ole Miss on February 19, Ole Miss at South Carolina on February 22, Tennessee at LSU on February 26, and Vanderbilt at Tennessee on March 1.

– On Monday, VCU fired Beth O’Boyle, the winningest coach in program history, who was in her 12th season. With that move, the coaching carousel is underway. There could be a few SEC coaches who join O’Boyle in unemployment this spring.

Using the rankings below, the coaches of the top 11 teams all look safe. Even with a second-half collapse, they have enough equity (and/or recruits) lined up to get another year. If Sam Purcell and Mississippi State end the season on an eight-game losing streak, his seat might get hot, but that would take an extreme occurrence.

Two of the bottom four teams have first-year coaches: Auburn’s Larry Vickers and Arkansas’ Kelsi Musick. They took over terrible situations, and nobody expected a one-season turnaround. They should be safe.

The other two, Joni Taylor of Texas A&M and Kelly Rae Finley of Florida, should be worried. 

Taylor completely turned over the Aggies’ roster this season, a tell-tale sign of desperation, and it didn’t work. There have already been rumors that Texas A&M has put out feelers for an upcoming coaching search.

Finley deserves credit for cleaning up a mess at Florida and upgrading the talent level. But she hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since her first season, and the talent isn’t winning games. A 1-8 record at this point in her fifth season.

But considering Florida AD Scott Stricklin gave the previous coach, Cam Newbauer, an extension for losing and abusing players, Finley is still doing better than her predecessor. 

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Standings Conf. Overall
South Carolina 8-1 22-2
Tennessee 6-1 14-5
Vanderbilt 7-2 21-2

LSU 7-2 21-2
Texas 6-2 21-2
Ole Miss 6-2 19-4
Alabama 5-4 19-4

Kentucky 5-4 18-5
Oklahoma 5-4 17-5
Georgia 4-4 18-4
Missouri 3-6 15-9
Mississippi State 3-6 12-3
Auburn 2-7 13-10
Florida 1-8 13-11
Texas A&M 1-8 8-10
Arkansas 0-8 11-12

Note: The top four seeds (first break) get a double-bye to the quarterfinals on Friday. Seeds five through eight (second break) get a bye to the second round on Thursday. I think I have the tie-breakers correct, but it’s tricky right now with teams playing a different number of games and not having all the head-to-heads.

Trivia: In the past 11 seasons, only the 14-2 Gamecocks in 2017 won the SEC with more than one loss. In the past 40 seasons, only 2012’s 13-3 Kentucky has won with three or more losses.

Awards

I’m making these as if the season ended today. A lot can, and will change, in the next month. This is for a couple of days of entertainment only.

All-SEC
My Picks: Raegan Beers, Mikayla Blakes, Madison Booker, Joyce Edwards, Clara Strack
Predictions: They put half the conference on the First-Team.
Thoughts: It was really hard to leave off (your favorite player). It basically came down to a coin flip between her and (your least favorite of my picks). This could definitely change by the end of the year.

Player of the Year
My pick: Mikayla Blakes, Guard, Vanderbilt
Prediction: Madison Booker, Texas
Thoughts: This award tends to resist change. Booker didn’t deserve it last season, but she was the preseason pick so they gave it to her. Booker is better this season, but Blakes has been phenomenal. 

Defensive Player of the Year
My Pick: Raven Johnson
Prediction: Raven Johnson
Thoughts: This rarely goes to the best defensive player. It’s usually more of a consolation prize for a team the voters think is under-represented. This time I do think Johnson deserves it.

Newcomer of the Year
My Pick: Cotie McMahon
Prediction: Cotie McMahon
Thoughts: Even though I put McMahon for both, she has plenty of competition. Ta’Niya Latson, Dani Carnegie, and Tonie Morgan are just three other newcomers who have a strong case.

Freshman of the Year
My Pick: Aubrey Galvan
Prediction: Aaliyah Chavez
Thoughts: Chavez is going to win because her traditional stats are through the roof. But I don’t like how many bad shots she takes or her advanced stats, so I’m going to yell at clouds and pick Galvan. Her emergence has allowed Blakes to take her game to another level.

Sixth-Woman of the Year
My Pick: MiLaysia Fulwiley
Prediction: MiLaysia Fulwiley
Thoughts: Fulwiley won last season and will repeat. It’s an unusual season in that she doesn’t have a lot of competition in this category. Partly because of injuries, not many teams have a real sixth-woman this year.

Coach of the Year
My Pick: Shea Ralph or Larry Vickers
Prediction: Dawn Staley
Thoughts: It’s hard to give this to a coach with a losing record, but Vickers had to rebuild Auburn almost from scratch and has made the Tigers competitive. If not him, Ralph has taken Vanderbilt to the next level despite her second-best player leaving in the middle of the summer. If South Carolina wins the SEC, I have no problem with Staley taking home this award. She had to replace four starters and lost her top returning player to a season-ending knee injury in October.

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