Bracketology Update: Tennessee sticking as a No. 3 seed in NCAA Tournament projections

Tennessee basketball is remaining as a projected No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament despite its recent struggle. But the draws are getting less favorable.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi earlier this week had the Vols as a No. 3 facing No. 14 Hofstra in Greensboro, N.C., opposite of No. 6 Duke and No. 11 Oklahoma State. Jerry Palm for CBS Sports also had Tennessee as a No. 3 in Greensboro, playing Rick Pitino’s Iona team and opposite of No. 6 TCU and No. 11 FAU.

The NCAA Tournament selection committee on Saturday afternoon released its current top 16 seeds on the NCAA March Madness Bracket Breakdown Preview show.

The Vols (20-8, 9-6 SEC), who have lost five of their last seven, are still at No. 3 in the NET rankings, the metric the selection committee uses to seed the 68-team bracket.

“I look at Tennessee in the three spot here, close to being a two,” former Villanova head coach Jay Wright said during Saturday’s bracket preview show. “And they’ve just beaten the No. 1 team (Alabama) in the country (last) week, right? And they’re a three seed. So it shows you the balance and the depth of this tournament. 

“Tennessee is one of the best defensive teams in the country, which spurs their half court offense when they can’t get out in transition. They’re a scary team as a three seed.”

Tennessee has a 5-5 record in Quad 1 games, a 4-3 record in Quad 2 games and a combined 11-0 record in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games. 

“Tennessee, they could’ve easily been a two seed,” Chris Reynolds, the chairman of the NCAA Tournament selection committee said during the show, adding that there was “a lot of conversation” surrounding the Vols and their seeding.

“They struggled in the Quad 2, when you look at their Quad 2 record. But they have strong records in Quad 1.” 

A closer look at the Vols NCAA Tournament resume this season

The NET, which replaced the RPI in 2018, looks at team value index (opponent, location and winner), efficiency (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency), winning percentage and adjusted win percentage (weighted values for a road win, +1.4, a neutral-site win, +1.0, and home win, +0.6).

The Vols for the last three months have been No. 1 in KenPom.com‘s adjusted defensive efficiency rating, currently giving up 86.2 points per 100 possessions. They’re 72nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring 110.8 points per 100 possessions.

KenPom has Tennessee ranked No. 6 overall in total adjusted efficiency, at 24.59. Houston is No. 1, at 29.86, ahead of No. 2 UCLA (27.06) and No. 3 Alabama (26.82). Purdue is No. 4 and UConn is No. 5.

Tennessee’s best wins this season have come against Alabama, No. 2 in the NET, Kansas (No. 6), on a neutral floor in the Bahamas in the Battle 4 Atlantis in November, and Texas (No. 9) at Thompson-Boling Arena on January 28.

The Vols also three other top-50 NET wins over Maryland (No. 19), Auburn (No. 27) and Mississippi State (No. 44).

Tennessee basketball in the NCAA Tournament under head coach Rick Barnes

Tennessee under head coach Rick Barnes has been a No. 2 seed, a No. 3 seed (twice) and a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

Last March the Vols, as a No. 3 seed, lost to No. 11-seed Michigan in the second round of the NCAA Tournament in Indianapolis. Tennessee lost as a No. 5 seed to Oregon State in Indianapolis in 2021 and advanced to the Sweet Sixteen as a No. 2 seed in 2019, before losing to No. 3-seed Purdue in overtime in Louisville. 

No. 11-seed Loyola Chicago, the NCAA Tournament’s Cinderella team, made a run to the Final Four in the 2018, taking out No. 3-seed Tennessee in the second round.