What Tennessee basketball has left on the regular-season schedule
No. 2 Tennessee’s 46-43 win over No. 25 Auburn on Saturday afternoon wasn’t all that easy to watch. The Vols shot just 27.0 percent from the field and went just 2-for-21 from the 3-point line. The Tigers were even colder, shooting 23.6 percent from the field and 11.1 percent from the arc.
The matchup between defense ranked No. 1 and No. 12, respectively, in KenPom.com‘s adjusted efficiency rating lived up to the billing.
But after the brick dust settled, it still went down on Tennessee’s resume as a Quad 1 win, as a home win over an opponent ranked in the top 30 of the NET ratings.
The Vols (19-4, 8-2 SEC) climbed to No. 2 in the Associated Press Top 25 on Monday, before the 67-54 loss at Florida on Wednesday (a Quad 1 loss). They’re No. 2 in the NET ratings, trailing only top-ranked Houston and one spot ahead of Alabama. Tennessee has a 5-2 record in Quad 1 and is 3-2 in Quad 2, 4-0 in Quad 3 and 7-0 in Quad 4.
The NET, which replaced the RPI in 2018, looks at team value index (opponent, location and winner), efficiency (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency), winning percentage and adjusted win percentage (weighted values for a road win, +1.4, a neutral-site win, +1.0, and home win, +0.6).
| NET Quad 1 | Home 1-30 | Neutral 1-50 | Away 1-75 |
| NET Quad 2 | Home 31-75 | Neutral 51-100 | Away 76-135 |
| NET Quad 3 | Home 76-160 | Neutral 101-200 | Away 135-240 |
| NET Quad 4 | Home 161-353 | Neutral 201-353 | Away: 241-353 |
Tennessee, which slipped from a No. 1 to a No. 2 seed in ESPN’s NCAA Tournament projections in recent days, has eight games left on the regular-season schedule, with plenty of opportunities to move back up one of the top four seeds. There are currently four Quad 1 games, two Quad 2 games and one Quad 4 game.
Here’s what the Vols have remaining on the regular-season schedule, listed by quad and opponent NET rating:
Quad 1 — No. 4 Alabama (3)
Thompson-Boling Arena | Wednesday, February 15 | 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2 or ESPNU
KenPom Projection: Tennessee 72, Alabama 67 (Vols 65% chance of win)
The Crimson Tide is two games clear at the top of the SEC standings, at a perfect 10-0. Alabama plays Florida at home and Auburn on the road before making the trip to Tennessee.
Quad 1 — Arkansas (29)
Thompson-Boling Arena | Tuesday, February 28 | 9 p.m. ET, ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU
KenPom Projection: Tennessee 70, Arkansas 60 (Vols 81% chance of win)
Arkansas started 11-1 but since SEC play started on December 28 has lost six of 11, including four straight (at Auburn, Alabama, at Vanderbilt and at Missouri). The Hogs have bounced back with four wins in their last five. Arkansas is three games back of Tennessee in the SEC standings and five games back of Alabama.
Quad 1 — At Auburn (30)
Neville Arena | Saturday, March 4 | Noon, 2 p.m. or 4 p.m. ET, ESPN or ESPNU
KenPom Projection: Tennessee 65, Auburn 62 (Vols 60% chance of win)
If fans didn’t get enough of Tennessee-Auburn on Saturday, the rematch is coming in the regular-season finale at Auburn. After playing at Tennessee on Saturday, Auburn goes to Texas A&M Tuesday then plays Alabama at home on Saturday. The Tigers play at Kentucky and Alabama in back-to-back road games before hosting Tennessee on March 4.
Quad 1 — At Kentucky (31)
Rupp Arena | Saturday, February 18 | 1 p.m. ET, CBS
KenPom Projection: Tennessee 68, Kentucky 64 (Vols 63% chance of win)
Kentucky has won six straight SEC games, including the 63-56 win over Tennessee at Thompson-Boling Arena on January 14, and is a game back of the Vols in the SEC standings. Before hosting Tennessee, Kentucky plays Arkansas, at Georgia and at Mississippi State.
Quad 1 — At Texas A&M (41)
Reed Arena | Tuesday, February 21 | 7 p.m. ET, ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU
KenPom Projection: Tennessee 68, Texas A&M 64 (Vols 66% chance of win)
The Aggies started the season with a 6-5 record with losses to Wofford, Memphis, Boise State, Colorado and Murray State. Since then Texas A&M has won 10 of 12 with the only losses coming at Kentucky and Arkansas. A&M is tied with Tennessee for second in the league standings. The Aggies play Auburn, at LSU, Arkansas and at Missouri before hosting Tennessee.
Quad 2 — Missouri (48)
Thompson-Boling Arena | Saturday, February 11 | 6 p.m. ET, SEC Network
KenPom Projection: Tennessee 79, Missouri 66 (Vols 88% chance of win)
Missouri has been one of the biggest surprises in the SEC under first-year Mizzou coach Dennis Gates, but is coming off a 63-52 loss at Mississippi State Saturday night. The Tigers are 5-1 at home in SEC play, but are just 1-4 away from home in league play, with the only win coming at Ole Miss on January 24. Mizzou started SEC play with a home win over Kentucky on December 28, running their record to 12-1 to start the season, with the lone loss coming against Kansas. Missouri is tied with Arkansas in the SEC standings with 5-5 records.
Quad 2 — At Vanderbilt (108)
Memorial Gymnasium | Wednesday, February 8 | 7 p.m. ET, SEC Network
KenPom Projection: Tennessee 72, Kentucky 61 (Vols 83% chance of win)
Vanderbilt hosts Tennessee on Tuesday looking for its first back-to-back wins since January 3. The Commodores beat Ole Miss 74-71 in Nashville on Saturday, after losing six of their previous eight games, including the 77-68 loss at Tennessee on January 10. The Vols have won 11 in a row over Vandy, a streak that includes five road wins and started with a win at Memorial Gym in 2018.
Quad 4 — South Carolina (276)
Thompson-Boling Arena | Saturday, February 25 | 6 p.m. ET, SEC Network
KenPom Projection: Tennessee 75, South Carolina 50 (Vols 99% chance of win)
Tennessee beat South Carolina 85-42 in Columbia on January 7. It was the most lopsided loss for South Carolina in Colonial Life Arena history and was the third-largest road win for the Vols in program history. The Gamecocks are currently riding a seven-game losing streak, dating back to the 71-68 win at Kentucky on January 10.
