ESPN explains why Ohio State will host first-round College Football Playoff game over Tennessee

Ohio State’s wins at Penn State and at home against Indiana will be enough for the Buckeyes to stay ahead of Tennessee and host a first-round game in the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s latest projections. 

ESPN’s Heather Dinich had Ohio State (10-2) at No. 6 in her College Football Playoff ranking projection Saturday night, just ahead of No. 7 Tennessee (10-2). She had the Buckeyes seeded eighth in her 12-team bracket, with the Vols seeded ninth. 

Ohio State on Saturday were stunned in a 13-10 home loss to unranked Michigan as a three-touchdown favorite. Tennessee won 36-23 at Vanderbilt after being ranked No. 8 and seeded ninth last week. 

New College Football Playoff rankings, bracket to be released Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET

The College Football Playoff rankings will be officially updated by the selection committee Tuesday night. The bracket will be set for good on Sunday afternoon, following conference championship games on Saturday. 

The Tennessee-Ohio State winner in ESPN’s projections this week would advance to face No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl.

“Ohio State’s loss to Michigan was bad,” Dinich wrote for ESPN on Tuesday, “but it probably wasn’t a deal-breaker in the committee meeting room because of the Buckeyes’ two top-10 wins against Penn State and Indiana. As long as Ohio State is ranked in the committee’s top seven, it should still host a first-round game.”

Ohio State is No. 26 in strength of schedule, according to ESPN, while Tennessee is No. 28. The best win of the season for the Vols came at home against Alabama in October, while Ohio State beat Indiana two weeks ago and won at Penn State on November 2. 

ESPN’s updated bracket has No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Texas, No. 3 SMU and No. 4 Boise State getting byes to the quarterfinal round as the four highest-ranked teams projected to win their respective conferences. 

The other first-round matchups were No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Penn State, No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia. 

ESPN’s last two teams in the field are Miami and Arizona State. The first five teams out are Alabama, Iowa State, Clemson, Ole Miss and South Carolina. 

‘All (Tennessee) can do is wait and watch the SEC title game’

Tennessee moved up to No. 6 in both the Associated Press Top 25 and the Coaches Poll on Sunday, while Ohio State dropped to No. 7 in the AP Top 25 and No. 8 in the Coaches Poll. 

The Vols would likely need a substantial Georgia loss in the SEC Championship game Saturday against Texas, giving the Bulldogs three losses on the season,   to move up in the final rankings.

“Tennessee should be in the CFP,” Dinich wrote, “it’s just a matter of where and if it will earn a first-round home game as one of the teams seeded Nos. 5 through 8. All it can do is wait and watch the SEC title game to see how Georgia fares and how it might impact Tennessee’s final ranking.”