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ESPN Playoff Predictor: Tennessee currently has 74% chance to make the College Football Playoff

IMG_3593by:Grant Ramey11/06/24

GrantRamey

NCAA Football: Alabama at Tennessee
Oct 19, 2024; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers running back Dylan Sampson (6) celebrates after a touchdown against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the second half at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

Tennessee has a 74% chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to the ESPN Playoff Predictor. The Vols are tied with Penn State for the seventh-best odds to make the 12-team playoff. 

Tennessee (7-1, 4-1 SEC) was ranked No. 7 in the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season, which were released Tuesday night. Penn State was No. 6 and Indiana came in at No. 8.

The Vols were seeded No. 8 in the bracket based on the playoff rankings, projected to host Indiana in a first-round playoff game at Neyland Stadium. 

Vols would have 85% chance to make playoff with 10-2 record

ESPN’s Playoff Predictor gives No. 1 Oregon a 96% chance to make the playoff, with the Ducks leading the pack ahead of Miami (93%), Georgia (92%), Ohio State (91%), Indiana (87%) and Texas (78%).

Boise State is just behind Tennessee and Penn State, with the Broncos having a 71% chance to make the playoff. 

After hosting Mississippi State (2-7, 0-5) on Saturday night (7 Eastern Time, ESPN), the Vols go to Georgia next Saturday. They host UTEP on November 23 and close the regular-season schedule at Vanderbilt on November 30. 

Should Tennessee finish 10-2 with a losses at Arkansas and Georgia, the Playoff Predictor gives the Vols an 85% chance to make the playoff, a 27% chance to host in the first round and a 58% chance to go on the road in the first round.

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Should Tennessee win its final four games of the regular season and lose in the SEC Championship Game, the Vols would have an 83% chance to host in the first round and a 17% chance to go on the road.

Warde Manuel: ‘The loss at Arkansas was something that we discussed a lot’

Tennessee has won three straight home games — 23-17 in overtime against Florida, 24-17 against Alabama and 28-18 against Kentucky — since the 19-14 loss at Arkansas.

The Vols were ranked No. 6 in the Coaches Poll and No. 7 in the Associated Press Top 25 on Sunday. 

The College Football Playoff selection committee on Tuesday ranked Oregon No. 1, ahead of No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia, No. 4 Miami and No. 5 Texas. 

The first-round matchups Tuesday night were No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State, No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Texas and No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Penn State, along with No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Tennessee. 

“Tennessee has an impressive win over Alabama at No. 11,” selection committee chair Warde Manuel said on a conference call with reporters after the rankings were revealed on ESPN, “and wins over North Carolina State and Oklahoma, 4-1 against teams above .500. 

“The loss at Arkansas was something that we discussed a lot.”

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