Updating Tennessee Football's bowl projections entering Week 12

There wasn’t much change in Tennessee Football’s bowl projections after the bye week, with the Citrus Bowl, Reliaquest Bowl, Music City Bowl and Duke’s Mayo Bowl still listed as possibilities entering Week 12.

Both On3’s Brett McMurphy and Athon have the Vols matched up against Miami in the Gator Bowl.

ESPN’s Mark Shlabach has Tennessee and Iowa in the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa while ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura has the Vols facing Louisville in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte.

CBS Sports has Tennessee facing Illinois in the Music City Bowl and USA Today has the Vols in the Citrus Bowl against Michigan.

Tennessee (6-3) hosts New Mexico State (3-6) on Saturday, with kickoff scheduled for 4:15 p.m. Eastern Time on SEC Network. After hosting the Aggies, the regular-season schedule closes with a trip to Florida on November 22 and Senior Day against Vanderbilt at Neyland Stadium on November 29. 

Vols ranked No. 23 in College Football Playoff Top 25

Tennessee moved up to No. 23 in the College Football Top 25 Tuesday night. The Vols were ranked No. 25 last week in the first playoff rankings of the season. Cincinnati is now ranked No. 25, behind South Florida at No. 24.

The Vols on Sunday afternoon moved up two spots in both the Associated Press Top 25 and Coaches Poll, going up to No. 20 in the Coaches Poll and No. 21 in the AP Top 25 after the bye week.

Last week Tennessee dropped eight spots to No. 22 in the Coaches Poll and nine spots to No. 23 in the AP Top 25 after the 33-27 loss to Oklahoma at Neyland Stadium.

ESPN: Tennessee’s College Football Playoff chances down to 1.9%

Tennessee lost at Ohio State in the first round of the College Football Playoff last season, with the Buckeyes on their way to the national championship. The Vols have played in three bowl games under Josh Heupel, losing to Purdue in the Music City Bowl in 2021, beating Clemson in the Orange Bowl in 2022 and beating Iowa in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day 2024.

Tennessee is ranked No. 14 in ESPN’s College Football Power Index, which gives the Vols just a 1.9% chance to reach the College Football Playoff after the loss to Oklahoma. 

The FPI predicts Tennessee to finish 8-4 — 8.2-3.8 is the exact win-loss projection — despite ESPN’s Matchup Predictor giving the Vols a 99.0% chance to beat New Mexico State, a 66.0% chance to win at Florida and a 58.8% chance to beat Vanderbilt.