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Putting Tennessee Football as a 49.5-point favorite into perspective

IMG_3593by:Grant Ramey09/12/24

GrantRamey

Tennessee Football | Tennessee Athletics
Tennessee Football | Tennessee Athletics

Tennessee Football on Sunday opened as a 47.5-point favorite against Kent State, one of the biggest spreads for the Vols over the last 30 years. The line moved even more toward Tennessee early this week, going to a 49.5-point line as of Thursday. 

A 49.5-point line would be the largest spread for Tennessee according to the Odds Shark online college football database, which goes back to 1995. 

Tennessee covered as a 38-point favorite against Chattanooga in Week 1, winning 69-3 at Neyland Stadium. The Vols covered a 9-point spread against NC State in a 51-10 win in the Duke’s Mayo Classic at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

Up Next: No. 7 Tennessee vs. Kent State, 7:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network

Tennessee has been favored by 40 or more points eight times since 1998. The Vols are 8-0 in those games but just 2-6 against the spread and 1-5 against the over/under. 

The last two seasons have included games with a spread of 47.5 points ore more. Tennessee was a 48.5-point favorite against Austin Peay last season, failing to cover in a 30-13 win and the under hitting with the total set at 65.5.

The Vols were a 47.5-point favorite against Akron in September 2022 and covered comfortably in a 63-6 win. The over hit, too, with the total set at 67.0.

Tennessee was a 42.5-point favorite against Tennessee Tech in 2016, a 55-0 win. The Vols were a 41.5-point favorite against North Texas in 2015, a 24-0 win, and were a 49.0-point favorite — the largest line for a Tennessee game since 1998 — against Austin Peay in 2013, a 45-0 win.

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Tennessee was a 45.0-point favorite against Georgia State in 2012 (51-13 win), a 40.5-favorite against Rutgers in 2002 (35-13 win) and a 41.5-point favorite against UAB in 1998 (37-13 win). 

Vols went 7-6 against the spread last season

The Vols are 29-0 when favored by 30 or more points, dating back to 1995. They’re 13-16 against the spread in such games and 10-9 against the over/under. 

Tennessee is 28-2 as a favorite of 20 points or more, with losses at South Carolina in 2022, when the Vols were a 22.5-point favorite, and Georgia State in 2019, when Tennessee was 24.5-point favorite. 

Last season Tennessee went 7-6 against the spread. The Vols covered against South Carolina (-11.5), UTSA (-23.5), Texas A&M (-3), Kentucky (-4), Virginia (-27.5), UConn (-35) and Iowa (-6). They failed to cover against Austin Peay (-48.5), Florida (-5.5), Alabama (+8.5), Mizzou (-2.5), Georgia (+10.5) and Vanderbilt (-27).

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