2022 Big 12 contender or not? Iowa State
Everyone is just about ready to bury Matt Campbell’s Iowa State Cyclones.
The 2020 season was unquestionably the greatest season for modern Iowa State football and you can almost define “modern” in the historical sense as “post-enlightenment.” This school’s last conference title was in 1912 and their previous best achievement was a division title in 2004 in which they lost the “who represents the Big 12 North in the title game” tiebreaker to Colorado.
The 2020 team went 9-3, beat Oklahoma, went to the Big 12 Championship game and gave the Sooners a good game, then played a talented Oregon squad in the Fiesta Bowl and whipped em 34-17.
Heading into 2021 they were going to be fielding the following players who have a shot at being selected in the upcoming NFL draft.
- Quarterback Brock “pump fake” Purdy
- Running back Breece Hall
- Tight ends Charlie Kolar and Chase Allen
- Linebacker Mike Rose
- Defensive tackle Eyioma Uwazurike
That’s a fair number of NFL caliber athletes for a squad like Iowa State, not to mention other star players like Will McDonald (fourth of that name), Isheem Young, Xavier Hutchinson, and Greg Eisworth who were all bringing their talents and experience back for 2021.
Then Campbell’s Cyclones went 7-6 with a Cheez-it Bowl loss to Clemson, most of their defining players left the program for new opportunities in the NFL or transfer portal, and Campbell potentially missed a window to translate his success in Ames into a dream job opportunity at Notre Dame when the Irish simply promoted Marcus Freeman.
So the whole Iowa State thing…is that over now?
Roster infrastructure
There’s an interesting paradox of Iowa State football in Campbell’s celebration of a “5-star culture” which makes the most of not 5-star incoming talents. The list of NFL talents above belies the notion of Iowa State as being smaller, scrappy underdogs.
Campbell’s formational experiences at Division 3 power Mount Union has always guided Campbell into emphasizing a hard-nosed, working class, yet also tactically smart approach to the game. Iowa State had one of their better recruiting classes of all time in 2022, but finished only 29th nationally and 4th in the Big 12. That’s about as good as it gets for the Cyclones currently, 4th in the league.
They added two blue chips in there. A lineman from within the state named Hunter Deyo, who seems to have a murky future between becoming an athletic but shorter guard or a defensive lineman, and then a central Florida receiver named Greg Gaines.
What’s interesting about Iowa State is how they’ve been able to find and consistently develop a number of NFL caliber talents within infrastructure positions. Kolar, Uwazurike, Rose, these guys are big, powerful football players who were exceedingly difficult matchups for other Big 12 teams who don’t consistently have a 6-foot-6 tight end who can run around in the seams. Or a 250 pound linebacker who can line up on the far hash and make plays against the run or pass. Or a 320-pound lineman who can play defensive end.
Those aren’t the sorts of players you expect to find on a roster which prides itself on “culture over talent.” Many a Big 12 team can’t find talents with that kind of size and athleticism.
However, the Cyclones have routinely lacked elite athleticism at the skill positions and don’t have the same level of talent on the offensive line, where you’d expect a program with an over-achieving culture and a bevy of big, powerful kids to really shine. It all makes for a strange presentation.
At any rate, those big guys are moving on, how does the next generation of Campbell culture warriors look?
The offensive line is the biggest area of question. Every year I’ve asked, “will the Cyclones finally be truly good on the O-line?” The answer has consistently been, “no, solid but not good enough to control a game.” They’ve controlled games with their ability to flood the field with tight ends, manipulate matchups, and then having a quarterback who could improvise and make things happen off-schedule. Check out their run game in the Breece Hall era and you’ll see a lot of inefficient runs paired with long, breakaways by Hall.
For 2022 they return the four starters of the Cheez-it bowl from left tackle to right guard. Tyler Miller was starting his first game there, as the left tackle, and at 6-foot-9 is certainly an interesting player on the edge. They slid the previous left tackle Jarrod Hufford inside to guard and kicked top guard Trevor Downing inside to center. The very fact Hufford and Miller played at left tackle for Iowa State in 2021 made me wonder if other young prospects like Grant Treiber or Jake Remsburg were injured or unavailable.
Suffice to say, there’s a fair amount of experience and a ton of size returning in that room and consequently an awfully good chance they’ll be good in the run game next season. They won’t be springing holes for Breece Hall but Jirehl Brock is back along with some other young guys. They also have bludgeon back Jared Rus to help plow a road.
Elsewhere at tight end, converted quarterback Easton Dean has received some high praise from Campbell in the past, whether it’s as a route runner will remain to be seen. He’s had precious few opportunities with Kolar and Allen around.
Everyone seems to assume former 4-star Hunter Dekkers will be the heir to pump fake Purdy. Dekkers played twice for Purdy in two of Iowa State’s bigger games of 2021, against Iowa and Oklahoma, when PFP was struggling. Results were mixed, he doesn’t yet have all the timing down and made some careless decisions with the ball but the big left-hander can throw an accurate ball. With a full year as “the guy” and getting the system designed around his strengths, he’ll probably show a good deal more. I suspect the RPO game and some play-action shots will be a bigger part of the formula.
One thing I’ll throw out in caution to people who are eager to bury the Cyclones is that they went 8-5 in 2017 (5-4 in the Big 12) with Kyle Kempt at quarterback. They may have failed to lift the ceiling in 2021, but Campbell and his staff found ways to attack Big 12 defenses before Purdy took over the program and can likely do so again without him.
On defense, everything looks pretty consistent. Yes they lose their top four tacklers and check out these stats from their departing stars:
- Eyioma Uwazurike: 43 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, nine sacks.
- Mike Rose: 73 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, three sacks.
Definitely some losses and they have some things to figure out.
They do have some big young safeties in Craig McDonald and Beau Freyler who played a lot and well in 2021. You can see them below, Freyler played as the middle safety and McDonald in the boundary.
The D-line returns several components, including Zach Petersen and long-rumored uber-nose Howard Brown. They also added an FCS linebacker named Colby Reeder and Minnesota D-lineman M.J. Anderson. The biggest win was securing Jon Heacock’s return after Marcus Freeman offered him the Notre Dame defensive coordinator job.
Honestly expecting more of the same from their defense.
Space force
My main observation of the 2021 Cyclones and their “failure” was that they had no margin for error because they lacked explosiveness in the passing game. They could land big punches from Breece Hall, more consistently than most run games, but they couldn’t land knockout blows with the passing game.
PFPurdy threw for 3,188 yards at 7.8 ypa with 19 touchdowns to eight interceptions. Speedy Tarique Milton was an inconsistent part of the offense and transferred after the season was over. Xavier Hutchinson had a great year but caught 83 balls for 987 yards and five scores, which is pretty workmanlike. Obviously tight end Charlie Kolar was also a chain-mover and not a infiltrator, with 62 catches for 756 yards and six scores.
Hutchinson is back for a third consecutive season and Jaylin Noel was a primary target in the bowl game who figures to be prominently involved in 2022. I’m not sure if Noel is a burner though or another smooth, quick player like Hutchinson who will learn to consistently get open but may not take the top off the defense. They still have Daniel Jackson and Sean Shaw as well, who are of similar molds but at different sizes.
Protecting Dekker from having to improvise as much as Purdy should be a priority, which makes right tackle the new blindside protector. Tyler Miller or Jake Remsburg emerging as an All-Big 12 caliber player would be massive.
Defensively the Cyclones got a massive victory when Will McDonald announced he was coming back for another year. McDonald had six sacks in 2019, 10.5 in 2020, and 11.5 in 2021. I have no idea why he’s coming back rather than heading off to the NFL but he is so Iowa State stands to draw a massive benefit. He’ll have good pass-rush working off him also with Petersen back along with a number of ends who have been developing behind him and Uwazurike.
Cornerback is the position they’ve generally tried to protect rather than maximize but they may be tempted to lean more on these guys in 2022. Anthony Johnson is the top guy and back for another go. As we’ve seen from Oklahoma State, returning solid cornerbacks who have played over multiple seasons can yield big returns. They learn opposing tendencies and tricks, all the right positioning, footwork, and leverage to hold up against receivers without getting beat.
Can Iowa State contend in 2022?
I really doubt Iowa State falls off the map. There’s too much continuity and too many good players still around for them to collapse. Instead I foresee them winning 7-8 games again.
The better question is whether they can find some new stars on the team who allow them to surprise and contend for a berth in the Big 12 Championship.
They need to plug in some new guys at tight end and linebacker, I suspect the real question there is “who’s next” rather than “is anyone next?” The more challenging questions of whether they have any top athletes for the Space Force actually have more direct answers. McDonald, Johnson, Hutchinson, Noel, and Miller are all solutions to this question of varying potency. I expect Noel (receiver) and Miller (tackle) to be the guys who determines whether this is another solid Campbell team or a surprisingly competitive team who stays in the Big 12 title hunt.
