2022 Big 12 contender or not? Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State was agonizingly close to winning the Big 12 Championship in 2021. Within inches, obviously, on their last play of the game.

Alternatively, you could argue they were a few injuries away. They ended up getting beat up at center and tight end, eliminating their outside zone run game and leaving them dependent on Spencer Sanders.

They were in the same boat, or at least a similar vessel, against Notre Dame in the bowl game but they ended up smashing the Irish defense over time as they applied tempo and Sander’s legs. On the day Sanders ended up running for 125 yards, throwing for 371, and passing for four touchdowns with zero interceptions.

Suddenly Oklahoma State is viewed as a major contender for 2022 within the league.

On the other hand, they’re losing Jim Knowles and most of the defensive backfield from the defense which powered them through the 2021 season. Will they be as good on defense without Knowles and all those veterans? Probably not. So, what do we make of this team for 2022?

Roster infrastructure

Spencer Sanders and the offensive line were more of a limiting factor in 2021 than they were a team strength. Sanders was named 1st team All-Big 12 quarterback, but I’d call that a farce if only there were better options. He did make some plays for the Cowboys, often using his legs late in games to get the ‘Pokes over the hump in close games.

I’d suggest that Mike Gundy knew his quarterback well and would carefully manage games to put the onus on his defense or his quarterback’s legs. You could see OSU easing their feet off the gas with the passing game when Sanders started to get jittery and make questionable decisions, often calling quarterback runs instead where his aggressiveness would be a strength rather than a liability.

Sanders needs to be better in the passing game in 2022 for OSU to have a good chance of making it back to the Big 12 Championship game. He made 391 passing attempts in 2021 which accounted for 2,839 yards at 7.3 ypa with 14 sacks, 20 touchdown passes, and 12 interceptions. That’s not terribly efficient and there are way too many negative plays in those stats.

There’s little question Sanders can keep getting better with more maturity, more experienced receivers, and better protection from his line. How much better? That’s the endgame question for this team, which comes after the questions about getting better wide receiver play (very likely) and better line play.

The offensive line is losing the strength of their unit, the left guard/center tandem of Josh Sills and Danny Godlevske. Both were transfers to OSU and both were very experienced, Sills started two years at West Virginia and two more in Stillwater. Godlevske started 3.5 years at Miami OH and one more for the ‘Pokes.

They get back the tackle tandem of Cole Birmingham and Jake Springfield, right guard Hunter Woodard is back after starting in both 2020 and 2021. Center is probably established with the return of Joe Michalski, who played against Baylor and Notre Dame and was improved in the latter contest.

As is often the case for many a school, OSU can typically reload inside on the offensive line and they have a lot going for them there anyways. Tackle is the bigger question. We’ll come back to that later.

Who will they open paths for in the run game? Much of the running back roster has finished their time in Stillwater, they’ve been looking to add a transfer but also bring freshman Ollie Gordon in from Euless Trinity who seems a lock to be good sooner than later.

Defensively things are questionable overall but not in bad shape here.

The D-line was huge for the Cowboys and returns mostly intact. Tyler Lacy has been a terrific player and will join Brandon Evers in coming back. Nose tackle Israel Antwine is gone but he had a good year which helped them develop some younger kids to be strong enough to plug interior gaps. They also lost Jayden Jernigan to Missouri (transfer).

Linebacker is dicier. Malcolm Rodriguez is finally done and so is his 2021 partner Devin Harper. Behind them, Kolby Harvell-Peel will no longer be coming in run support, nor Tanner McCalister who joins Jim Knowles in Columbus, OH. They do get Jason Taylor back as well as Thomas Harper so there’s still quite a bit of knowhow and size (Taylor is 215 pounds) in the middle.

They haven’t hired a defensive coordinator yet but I suspect they’ll maintain the Flyover, 3-down/3-safety structure that’s served them well in recent years.

Space force

There are a few losses here from a year ago. Christian Holmes ended up putting together a good sixth year as their left cornerback, answering one of my biggest questions about the team, and Tay Martin is gone after giving them pretty darn good outside receiver play.

Replacing Martin probably won’t be too bad. They have Brennan Presley and John Paul Richardson back inside and outside will be looking to find the next star from among Jaden Bray, Rashod Owens, Bryson Green, and incoming blue chip receiver Talyn Shettron.

Protecting Sanders is another matter. Birmingham and Springfield play tackle by necessity more than because they’ve been major assets in pass protection.

OSU has been trying to recruit a tackle from the FCS transfer ranks, offering Michael Shanahan of UT Martin and Mac Hollensteiner of Georgetown. Shanahan is heading to Texas Tech, Hollensteiner hasn’t made a decision yet. Adding a good athlete who can protect well would be a big boost for affording OSU the chance to move Birmingham to guard or right tackle. They’ve also been developing Preston Wilson, who played a lot of right tackle in the bowl game. It’s very likely they’ll be more solid overall at tackle without being great.

OSU has a hilarious abundance of options for attacking opposing protections. Brock Martin is coming back for another year after totaling nine sacks in 2021. Freshman Collin Oliver is also obviously back after his breakout 10.5 sack season. Then they have that Trace Ford fellow who was the promising and explosive pass-rusher heading into the season before an injury knocked him out and lead to the emergence of Oliver.

One of the big priorities this offseason is going to have to be converting one or more of these pass-rushers into all-around linebackers who can play off the ball. It’s the only way to get them on the field together for more than just a nasty third down package. It’ll be a really tough challenge…but OSU won’t lack for pass-rush off the edge however it goes.

They need to another cornerback to have a big offseason like Ro Williams and Christian Holmes did in previous years. The obvious candidate would be Jarrick Bernard-Converse. He’s not as good of an athlete as Williams or Holmes but he has a ton of experience so I’m not going to rule out further growth from him. Probably Jabbar Muhammad starts opposite him, but he lacks either size or elite athleticism.

Maybe the Cowboys will lack a press-man cornerback in 2022, it would certainly not be surprising, but I’ve anticipated this hole on their team for a few years now and they keep getting great senior seasons from new candidates.

Can Oklahoma State contend in 2022?

There are a number of questions to recap.

First, can they improve at offensive tackle enough to be able to protect Sanders better in 2022? Then building on that point, can Sanders handle a greater burden of decision-making and play-making for the offense as a senior without committing turnovers which cost them games?

Secondly, can their new defensive coordinator work out how to carry on what Knowles was doing AND make the most of an absurdly loaded outside linebacker room?

All the questions relating to their ability to reload the Space Force with skill athletes who can make a difference for them have promising answers. Can a Mike Gundy team find difference makers at wide receiver? Surely. Can they find another really good cornerback? Probably. Will they have a pass rush off the edge? Unquestionably. Will someone emerge who can protect the quarterback at tackle against top pass-rusher from other programs? Maybe.

They’re good in Stillwater at identifying promising athletes and maximizing them over time with good coaching and Rob Glass’ strength and conditioning.

The infrastructure questions are tougher. We’ll keep an eye on what they do at defensive coordinator and in the portal, but if things come down to whether Spencer Sanders and new faces at linebacker and safety can match the winning play of Malcolm Rodriguez and Kolby Harvell-Peel, that feels much less certain.

Can Oklahoma State get back to the Big 12 Championship in 2022? Discuss for free on the Flyover Football board!