2022 Big 12 contender or not? Texas
Everyone has been waiting with great anticipation for the deluge of offseason articles to come out of Austin and the national media proclaiming “Texas is back in 2022!” It’s tradition for the Longhorns to get a lot of hype only to fall on their faces come the actual season.
The Tom Herman era was actually close to breaking through, moreso in year two (2018) than in year four (2020), as he repeated the Charlie Strong cycle of winning with leftover talent but struggling to reload and develop his own.
Steve Sarkisian really fell flat in year one (5-7) for a number of reasons. Perhaps the biggest issue was the installation of a 3-4 hybrid defense (2-4-5 in nickel) with a roster lacking any returning Edge players from the 2020 season save for walk-on Jett Bush (a converted inside linebacker, no less) and with some issues at inside linebacker as well. The infusion of transfers didn’t help when the back-up linebackers from Notre Dame (Ovie Oghoufo), Alabama (Ben Davis), and LSU (Ray Thornton) weren’t ready to be frontline starters at a crucial position.
There were a lot of other problems as well, but then Texas also had halftime leads on Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Iowa State before crumbling in the second half of each game. For 2022 the team is going to look very different after a top five recruiting class, and more importantly, the addition of four big transfers and the departure of several others.
Sark is remaking this team very quickly and year two will necessarily look very different in terms of inputs. How much will the output change?
Roster infrastructure
This isn’t how most people conceptualize a football team, especially folks who try to take a smarter and more analytical approach, but Bijan Robinson is absolutely an infrastructure piece of the Texas roster.
Like many others, I tend to see running backs as somewhat fungible (once you reach a baseline level of athleticism which tends to be high) and their production typically a function of the talent and system around them. Bijan is better than most running backs though and early in the year tended to make Texas look better with his ability to avoid negative plays on missed blocks and to maximize positive plays by setting up second and third level defenders.
Sark’s offensive system has the right approach in wanting to infiltrate and break down the structure of a defense with the threat of vertical passing before cleaning up what’s left with the run game. The “clean up with the run game” part took a while to click in 2021 but by the end of the year, even after Bijan went down, the Longhorns were doing some solid work.
They head into 2022 with a potential interior O-line of:
- Left guard: Junior Angilau. 6-foot-6, 320 pounds, 4th year starter.
- Center: Jacob Majors. 6-foot-3, 310 pounds, 2nd year starter.
- Right guard: Hayden Conner, 6-foot-5, 330 pounds, 1st year starter.
Angilau has been one of their better all around linemen for a few years now and had a pretty strong 2021 while battling injuries most of the year. Majors flashed at the end of 2020 and then locked down the starting center job for 2021 and played well. Conner played regularly as a true freshman in 2021 at guard and moves extremely well for his size.
Tight ends Jared Wiley (transferring to TCU) and Cade Brewer (exhausted eligibility) are gone but sophomore Gunnar Helm was already pushing them as a blocker as a true freshman in 2021. Texas’ prognosis for being able to run inside zone, duo, and gap schemes downhill at teams with Bijan Robinson (or their other backs) is very good.
Who’s going to be the maestro for all of this at quarterback? Well Hudson Card returns as a redshirt sophomore after showing flashes of his promise in 2021 along with signs of being too young and unready for the pressure of the moment. Then there’s the highest rated recruit of all time, Quinn Ewers, who transfers in from Ohio State.
Both are promising as play-action shooters, particularly Ewers, and both will be around in spring to battle for the job. Gritty but limited Casey Thompson will not be around, having transferred to Nebraska to battle the younger Purdy brother for that job.
Defensively, the middle of the unit still has some question marks but is probably better off than a year ago if only due to continuity in the system. Inside at defensive tackle Texas was in good shape in 2021 and should be in great shape in 2022. Starters Keondre Coburn and Moro Ojomo are back, very promising freshman Byron Murphy returns, freakish Alfred Collins (6-foot-5, 305 pounds) slides back inside from defensive end, and massive T’Vondre Sweat is set to return while a host of incoming freshmen pile up behind them.
Inside linebacker opened the year with walk-on Luke Brockermeyer and converted safety DeMarvion Overshown, neither made it through the year healthy. During the season Jaylan Ford flashed and will now own the Mike linebacker spot. If Overshown is healthy this offseason and able to hone his craft as a linebacker it’ll be the first time he’ll have had the opportunity to do so. He’s yet to have a full, healthy offseason since moving to the new position.
Then back at safety they lose seniors B.J. Foster and Brenden Schooler. 2021 starting nickel Anthony Cook will probably move back to safety for 2022 and play alongside sophomore J.D. Coffey or junior Jerrin Thompson who was a co-starter along Foster and Schooler in 2021.
Most of Texas’ biggest questions aren’t here in the infrastructure piece, but they had massive question marks and changes for the next section.
Space force
Texas has made significant moves here (offensive tackle, Edge, deep threat receiver, island cornerback) in the offseason. The first was adding Ohio State cornerback Ryan Watts, a 6-foot-3, 205 pounder who ran a 4.59 40 with a 4.01 shuttle and 38″ vertical at the Nike Opening in 2019. The big defensive back figures to get first crack at the starting boundary cornerback spot for Texas which would set up much of the rest of the defense.
Then for the edge they are targeting TCU transfer Ochaun Mathis, a 6-foot-5, 255 pounder who was 2nd team All-Big 12 in 2020 and 2021. For Texas to have someone with the ability to play tighter or more isolated coverage in the boundary and then to have a pass-rusher at strong side end/Jack linebacker would have a massive impact on a defense which was picked on in both areas in 2021. Texas couldn’t defend the edges properly in 2021 and certainly didn’t attack them very well, making it the main point of failure for the whole defense.
Offensively they have added Alabama flex tight end Jahleel Billingsley and Wyoming receiver Isaiah Neyor, each of whom could have a substantial impact on the team. Billingsley is an interesting player, more of a pure flex tight end who is dangerous in the slot or in particular in Y-iso formations on the backside of a formation.
Neyor is your typical big, downfield threat. At 6-foot-3, 210 pounds he has a lot of size and length for getting off the line and getting the ball out of the air. He’s also adept at double moves and caught 12 of Wyoming’s 15 touchdown passes last season.
It’ll be an obvious move for Texas to play a fair amount of 12 personnel next season with Billingsley moving in and out of the box while Xavier Worthy and Isaiah Neyor (or Jordan Whittington) line up outside at receiver. It’s a fair mix of versatile talents along with meeting Sark’s preference for having multiple players who can get open down the field.
Left tackle and weak side edge still need solutions. Texas returns 2021 left tackle Christian Jones and back-up Andrej Karic while adding a ton of freshman talent, headlined by 5-star Kelvin Banks. Ideally for the Longhorns, a healthier and more experienced Jones would lock down left tackle and play much closer to an All-Big 12 level while Karic added the strength and experience to hold off the incoming freshmen for a year while they added some knowhow.
Protecting the quarterback for all the shots they intend to take with all of these weapons is the obvious weak spot in the offense. However, play-action involving pulling these big, mobile guards will be part of the solution to the problem.
Rushing the passer from the weak side will require growth and development from a roster stacked with young talent and returning top weak side rusher Ovie Oghoufo. They have a lot of potential solutions here but none of them are surefire bets. If they have Mathis on the strong side and better man coverage when they blitz, it’ll help.
Can Texas contend in 2022?
I think many are gun-shy at this point about projecting a team like Texas to be a serious contender, even just for Big 12 Champion, after the last few years. Of course they were a contender for the Big 12 title in three out of four seasons with Sam Ehlinger at the helm, but they never actually pulled through and only made the title game once.
Last year the program change and losses of their left tackle, Edge, quarterback, etc lead to a sharper decline than the sheer talent suggested. In one sense they were close as they gave all the Big 12 contenders a good game, in another sense they weren’t at all close since they lost every single one of those games.
So what do we do with the Longhorns in 2022?
From my analysis, if they get Ochaun Mathis as a transfer, Ryan Watts plays well at cornerback, and one of their quarterback talents pans out…this is your league favorite.
The receiving talent is truly lethal with Worthy and Whittington’s return combined with the additions of Billingsley and Neyor. Texas’ ability to put two deep threats on the field with a run game powered by Bijan and a solid interior and then a strong-armed quarterback is truly imposing. The defense has a ways to go from a year ago but Mathis and/or the development of some young talents on the edges could make a substantial difference.
The case would essentially be, “if Texas is as overpowering on offense as they appear capable of and can improve to top 50 on defense, that’s a team playing for a Big 12 Championship.”
The counterpoint is, “Texas will find a way to mess it up.”
Some possible options for how it could go wrong:
- The hype around Quinn Ewers forces Sark to play him before he should and the year is spent developing him at the expense of wins and losses.
- Texas can’t block well enough to take advantage of their skill talents.
- The defense is still too young and undisciplined and they blow their offensive advantages.
- Mathis transfers elsewhere, Watts busts, and Texas continues to be weak in their defensive space force.
Ultimately, even with some bad breaks, Texas is fairly certain to be very good on offense. They have a lot of weapons and now some continuity in the system. Texas scored 35.2 points per game last year and ranked 35th in offensive FEI and yielded 31.1 points per game and ranked 52nd in defensive FEI.
That made them 33rd overall in FEI, if they improve further like we probably all expect this would at least have them winning close more often. If they make substantial improvements with the drastic upgrades to the space force, they could be winning comfortably fairly often because of the firepower edge.
Perhaps it won’t all come together, but it’s not uncommon for teams to make major leaps in year two and Texas has as strong a case as anyone in the Big 12 to be considered the favorite.
Is Texas back or will they blow it again? Discuss for free on the Flyover Football board!
